Rain on Friday......Grrrrrr

[BenedictGomez]

Between the cold and rain this has not been a good start to the season for us gainfully employed weekend skiers.

This weekend is a potential doozy.

Things will change so we'll likely have more clarity as to what's actually going to happen, but from the looks of it at this moment, if you come from far away to ski country and decide to roll the dice, not only might the conditions be terrible, but you may risk being caught in a gargantuan ice storm that isn't often seen.

That would be a long, white knuckle drive (assuming the highways aren't shut down) home!

 

[bigbog]

WTF? I went to Sunday River last year on MLK weekend and it sucked because they were coming off of a rain/thaw/freeze cycle. So of course I booked a 4 day weekend there again this year and thought I was looking good for this weekend up until a couple of days ago. Now I am looking at skiing in rain, then freezing rain, then it freezing up and skiing an ice rink for the last 2 days.

Take a look at low-lying Kingfield's anticipated temps Whitey....for Friday...with the Loaf's north-facing there's always a chance for the precip flip-flopping between wet snow & the freezing r***.
$.01

 

[lerops]

The forecasts I am seeing (for Whiteface) have a lot of r$&@ on Thursday and part of Friday, but turning into snow Friday night onwards. For Saturday and beyond, it will bot make terrible skiing, am I missing something?


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[bdfreetuna]

The forecasts I am seeing (for Whiteface) have a lot of r$&@ on Thursday and part of Friday, but turning into snow Friday night onwards. For Saturday and beyond, it will bot make terrible skiing, am I missing something?

Whiteface will likely be better off than anywhere in New England.

 

[Smellytele]

Whiteface will likely be better off than anywhere in New England.

Not likely - about the same

 

[Not Sure]

I feel like the last 3 or 4 years, eastern ski areas have often been cursed with poor weather during many of the highest revenue weeks of the season. Stinks.

I braved the pouring rain last year only because my kids were all back in town. Was at Camelback last night spoke with one of patrol he said numbers this year have been down . They really could have used the weather this weekend. I'm curious though if the crowd will just go the indoor water park instead? The building has quite a light show on the roof at night .

 

[catherine]

I skied Okemo last year on MLK. The morning was OK, left early afternoon as the crowds made it terrible. Bad forecast = less people...

 

[mightaswell]

I’m seriously thinking of just not going and I’ll lose my $$. If there were other fun things to do in the area then I’d go but there really isn’t. I have two 20year olds who want to ski in decent conditions. I’ll end up spending another $500 on meals and gas and driving 10 hours round trip.......for nothing.


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[machski]

Take a look at low-lying Kingfield's anticipated temps Whitey....for Friday...with the Loaf's north-facing there's always a chance for the precip flip-flopping between wet snow & the freezing r***.
$.01

This storm I would not count on that. Liquid all the way up to Mont St. Anne means Loaf will likely not be spared. That said, beyond Friday is a low confidence forecast. Need to wait til closer in for any clarity. Even then it is likely to be a crapshoot.

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[tnt1234]

I seriously thinking of just not going and I’ll lose my $$. If there were other fun things to do in the area then I’d go but there really isn’t. I have two 20year olds who want to ski in decent conditions. I’ll end up spending another $500 on meals and gas and driving 10 hours round trip.......for nothing.


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Sorry man.

But you know, sometimes it works out better than you think...

 

[BenedictGomez]

00z models (sans the Euro which isnt quite out yet) all pretty much held serve in looking ugly for virtually all of ski country.

Still time for this to change for northernmost areas, but the further south you get it's not looking like there's any hope left unless the models are all wrong, which obviously isn't likely. The GFS, NAM, Canuck all have the same general idea, just separated by x miles.

EDIT: Should note they all did move a bit south and east though, which is good news if it's a trend. That could save the far northern areas at least. Mont Tremblant still looking like the #1 place to be if you can be anywhere, 12" for sure if the models pan out.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Was at Camelback last night spoke with one of patrol he said numbers this year have been down . They really could have used the weather this weekend. I'm curious though if the crowd will just go the indoor water park instead? The building has quite a light show on the roof at night .

I still havent checked all that new stuff out, I need to wander over there at some point.

 

[machski]

Starting to trend for snow Northern half of VT/NH and ME ski country backside on Saturday. But everyone still gets wet Friday, significant liquid amounts as well.

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[Glenn]

Between the cold and rain this has not been a good start to the season for us gainfully employed weekend skiers.

Yep. Due to weather and blackout dates, we haven't been out since before Christmas. We're blacked out this weekend. Not that we'd be skiing in the rain, so it's somewhat moot.

 

[gladerider]

here is the latest update from NWS this morning

i will be driving up to Lake Placid friday afternoon/evening. if you are planning to drive up north country friday afternoon/evening, be careful. the low will hit and the temps are supposed to dive freezing the pavement. total wet precip from thursday to friday is 1.25"+, that's a lot. hope the snow base holds.

 

[BenedictGomez]

i will be driving up to Lake Placid friday afternoon/evening. if you are planning to drive up north country friday afternoon/evening, be careful. the low will hit and the temps are supposed to dive freezing the pavement. total wet precip from thursday to friday is 1.25"+, that's a lot. hope the snow base holds.

Yeah, in addition to having to make the go/no-go on Whiteface based on the models, a game of "beat the clock" may also have to be played in terms of the drive. Could be absolutely treacherous.

 

[gladerider]

Yeah, in addition to having to make the go/no-go on Whiteface based on the models, a game of "beat the clock" may also have to be played in terms of the drive. Could be absolutely treacherous.

i'm committed so definitely going up. the lows are supposed to hit the st. lawrence valley around dinner time. i should be done with my driving by 9PM so fingers crossed.

 

[cdskier]

Yeah, in addition to having to make the go/no-go on Whiteface based on the models, a game of "beat the clock" may also have to be played in terms of the drive. Could be absolutely treacherous.

I have flexibility in deciding whether to go to VT or not and can decide as late as I want (one of the perks of having your own place to go to and a season pass)...but the "beat the clock" game sure complicates things this time even if models change and it looks like decent snow on the backend. Based on current models I'd have to say I wouldn't go as I'm still seeing significant ice for Sugarbush it looks like. Definitely not happy that I haven't been out since before Christmas. I had such a good start too with 14 days skiing in December by Christmas (more than I've ever done). If I miss this weekend, then I'm right back on pace exactly where I was last season with number of ski days by this point in the season.

 

[BenedictGomez]

i'm committed so definitely going up. the lows are supposed to hit the st. lawrence valley around dinner time. i should be done with my driving by 9PM so fingers crossed.

It will probably be freezing up there by 8 or so, so 9pm should be fine since it takes time for the water to freeze. If I do decide to roll the dice on the ski conditions up there, I probably cant leave until 5, which would make that last hour or so potentially non-fun driving. I dont mind driving in the freezing rain that's expected, it's the the prior rain sitting on the road that's to worry about.

EDIT: 12z GFS looks a little better, but it's almost meaningless given how close the "good" versus "crap" area is on the map. If nothing changes and the gradients remain this tight, it's a Friday morning nowcasting decision. 12z Canuck is initializing now, hopefully it looks better.

 

[BenedictGomez]

I'm still seeing significant ice for Sugarbush it looks like.

Yeah, Sugarbush is not looking good. Really, if you take these models verbatim, the only place in Vermont that may be spared appears to be Jay Peak. That hasnt changed. Models have been handling this storm pretty consistantly, other than the Euro which changed yesterday (I havent seen the 00z though).