Rain on Friday......Grrrrrr

[andrec10]

Waiting and hoping for Snowbird to get some base before the beginning of March!

 

[BenedictGomez]

18z NAM just finished running and it looks a bit better too. It would make Jay Peak "safe" for the weekend if it verified. Sunday would be a powder day on that run.

 

[lerops]

18z NAM just finished running and it looks a bit better too. It would make Jay Peak "safe" for the weekend if it verified. Sunday would be a powder day on that run.

Thanks! How about Whiteface?

 

[Keelhauled]

Want to fell better. This may not but I cancelled a trip to Vail on the 20th..and ate the 1600.00 bucks. Warm , all manmade, cold at night..icy groomers. Screw that. Going to Stowe, Smuggs, Jay. Will probably spend less on that whole trip than hanging around Vail for a week.

You really think the snow in the East is going to be better after Friday? Guess it depends on if we get a storm next week but if everything natural gets wiped out we're going to be in exactly the same boat as Vail, except they won't have gotten flooded in the interim.

 

[kingslug]

Not that i go by long range forecasts but the weather at stowe starting the 20th is saying snow all week..how they even try to predict that is a mystery to me..it would really suck if it didnt..the base is going to be ..titanium.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Thanks! How about Whiteface?

Still not entirely good. But at least it's closer to being good.

No certainly at the moment due to tight gradients, could be anything from "I wish I cancelled and stayed home" bad, to "this is really fun" good.

 

[kingslug]

The mansfield forecast shows heavy snow saturday..maybe a foot or more..

 

[BenedictGomez]

Not that i go by long range forecasts but the weather at stowe starting the 20th is saying snow all week..how they even try to predict that is a mystery to me..it would really suck if it didnt..the base is going to be ..titanium.

Not sure where you're looking, but anything after 5 days is automation. When you see those forecasts that got out 10 days like that, it's not done by a human being, and it's highly likely to be incorrect.

 

[deadheadskier]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Mind you, I didn't say that this was a bad start. I just said that it wasn't a good start. There is a difference. I realize that the snow has been ample, but there have been weekend days that I, personally, am not interested in skiing. Last weekend's cold is an example. Different strokes for different folks.

Fair enough. You did say "us", so I took that as your opinion for all weekend skiers. As a weekend skier, I disagree. Sunday wasn't all that cold after 11. Snow was great. Sorry you missed out.

Be thankful it's not 3-4 years ago when you had virtually no natural and the Qs weren't blowing crap.



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[machski]

They are up to 109 trails..better than the 35 they had. Guess they are blowing the hell out of the place. Not much falling from the sky.
https://www.vail.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/snow-and-weather-report.aspx
58 inches for the season..thats like Stowes base
back bowls and blue sky all closed. Hope my time in VT is better. Would be funny if my wife calls me and says its dumping while shes there.

You think Vail can blow snow on 109 trails? You are kidding I hope. They do not have that kind of coverage. If they are up to 109 trails, many of those are natural only.

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[BenedictGomez]

Pulled the trigger tonight. There's almost no lodging left it being MLK weekend and I'm totally convinced this trend is real and will continue, leading to snow. If I'm wrong, so be it.....football and beer wont be the end of the world.

 

[bigbog]

...As of Wednesday pm the forecast was for Friday through the weekend being a loss, however today's early morning predictions for Maine have changed with colder air coming down through the western mtns on Saturday and getting back to 20s and low 30s on Sunday through early next week = pretty fluid weather so it seems all might not be lost after all as the maps on Wednesday were a total loss of this weekend...

 

[mightaswell]

Pulled the trigger tonight. There's almost no lodging left it being MLK weekend and I'm totally convinced this trend is real and will continue, leading to snow. If I'm wrong, so be it.....football and beer wont be the end of the world.

Pm me if you want lodging and lift tickets cheap.


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[kingslug]

What do you make of this. Not sure if I feel like driving 5 hours but saturday might be a nice powder day, and Sunday good as well..on top of solid ice though
https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Mount-Mansfield/forecasts/1339

 

[Zermatt]

What do you make of this. Not sure if I feel like driving 5 hours but saturday might be a nice powder day, and Sunday good as well..on top of solid ice though
https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Mount-Mansfield/forecasts/1339

It's potentially garbage. The model just assumes that since the temp is less than 32 it is going to snow. But it won't be all snow, cold comes in at the surface before it does aloft so whatever falls will be liquid falling into sub freezing air. Freezing rain at first, then sleet then eventually snow at the end.

Now, nothern areas are going to fare much better with a faster change to snow. Stowe and Jay should come out okay.

 

[nhskier1969]

Even though some of the northern areas will switch to Snow on Saturday, Saturday will probably be a complete loss. The amount of rain they are talking about the ski resorts are going to have to let the mtn drain, then put back together the man made trails. There is going to be alot of water draining off the mtn. Probably alot of water beds running thru trails.

 

[cdskier]

Even though some of the northern areas will switch to Snow on Saturday, Saturday will probably be a complete loss. The amount of rain they are talking about the ski resorts are going to have to let the mtn drain, then put back together the man made trails. There is going to be alot of water draining off the mtn. Probably alot of water beds running thru trails.

That's a big part of my concern. Even if it switches to snow, it looks like it would be too late to help much for Saturday itself. The timeframe of when the temps drop Friday night also will limit the amount of time mountains have to groom before opening on Saturday. They realistically can't groom until after the snow re-freezes (unless you want frozen solid cord). If you get decent snow throughout the day on Saturday, that will help for Sunday (plus they will have a full 16 hours to groom Saturday night). For me this weekend isn't a holiday as I'm not off Monday, so the question becomes is it worth driving 5 hours to really only have Sunday morning with possibly decent/good skiing before having to drive 5 hours home Sunday afternoon? Even with models trending a bit more favorable, I still think after the rain and quick re-freeze Friday/Friday night it won't be enough to really make Saturday an enjoyable day. I could be wrong though. Sugarbush is still right on the border of areas that could get a quicker changeover to snow (4-8"+) or areas that see more ice and less snow (1-3") from what I see on the latest models and latest NWS discussions.

 

[tnt1234]

Pulled the trigger tonight. There's almost no lodging left it being MLK weekend and I'm totally convinced this trend is real and will continue, leading to snow. If I'm wrong, so be it.....football and beer wont be the end of the world.

Tim Kelley shares your optimism.

How far north are you going?

 

[BenedictGomez]

Tim Kelley shares your optimism.

How far north are you going?

Whiteface. Early morning NAM and GFS models both corrected a bit west which isnt good, so it's back on a knife edge again. lol. It's in an area where a few miles will mean the difference between very good and very terrible skiing.

On the bright side, the overnight Euro is now the most bullish model for all of ski country, but given it was the most negative for all of ski country just a day ago and has caved to literally all the other models, I'm not sure how much stock to put in that (if any).

 

[nhskier1969]

That's a big part of my concern. Even if it switches to snow, it looks like it would be too late to help much for Saturday itself. The timeframe of when the temps drop Friday night also will limit the amount of time mountains have to groom before opening on Saturday. They realistically can't groom until after the snow re-freezes (unless you want frozen solid cord). If you get decent snow throughout the day on Saturday, that will help for Sunday (plus they will have a full 16 hours to groom Saturday night). For me this weekend isn't a holiday as I'm not off Monday, so the question becomes is it worth driving 5 hours to really only have Sunday morning with possibly decent/good skiing before having to drive 5 hours home Sunday afternoon? Even with models trending a bit more favorable, I still think after the rain and quick re-freeze Friday/Friday night it won't be enough to really make Saturday an enjoyable day. I could be wrong though. Sugarbush is still right on the border of areas that could get a quicker changeover to snow (4-8"+) or areas that see more ice and less snow (1-3") from what I see on the latest models and latest NWS discussions.

I remember two years ago when we had a big rain event, most of the catch basin opened up and there was a large area running down downspout that had water running all the way down the trail. My guess, at best there will be a delayed opening Saturday. But then we are back to winding and temps near zero on Sunday.