Seasonal Outlooks

[KingM]

I've been looking in vain for a positive outlook for this winter. Josh Fox is indicative, predicting only 220 inches of snow for MRG this year, compared to last year's 300 inches. http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/

Last year it started terribly by they kept saying it was going to change. This year, it's great weather for November and would seem to indicate good things ahead but I've read several things predicting that the weather is going to turn warm in December and stay that way all the way through February.

It's not the +2-3 degrees that scare me, it's the rain events that follow that and the fact that those extra degrees will probably come as 60/40 thaws for three days at a stretch.

They have good reasons, with everything from a strong La Niña to low Arctic ice cover in October, etc. But I sure hope that someone has made a big, big mistake.

Anyone seen a good prediction lurking out there you can point us to?

 

[Greg]

I don't put much faith in any forecast beyond 5 days.

 

[KingM]

I know, and I note that Josh Fox only got last year right thanks to just two or three huge late-season storms that could just as easily have turned out differently, in which case he would have missed by a large margin. Last year was really a tale of two seasons. The first season was horrible and the second was as good as they come.

I'm also very happy with the weather as it currently stands. So I don't want to borrow trouble.

It's just that everyone is saying the same thing and that worries me a little.

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

220 inches at MRG would still be decent..but how could he possibily know unless he's related to Miss Cleo???

 

[KingM]

The pattern for the next couple of weeks looks fantastic. Hopefully, it's the beginning of an epic miss and we'll see the cold patterns continue into January and beyond.

Now all we need is a big system to come through during one of the cold stretches.

 

[riverc0il]

This is not a forecast but rather an outlook of how favorable the overall systems look for the long term. When they are generic enough, they usually hold some accuracy. Most other pro mets seem to be in agreement about this year going warm during what should be the best part of winter. February looks especially bleak, and not just from Fox's perspective. Much as most seasons it seems, yet another year for taking opportunity when it knocks.

 

[danny p]

from bestskiweather.com:

These three maps show temps at 5,000 feet departure from normal temps over the next ten days or so. We feel it will be even colder in the east than this come the early part of December. The bottom line is that good snowmaking weather will be the rule for most days.... WE ARE WATCHING A STORM FOR NOVEMBER 30TH AND ANOTHER IN EARLY DECEMBER.

 

[loafer89]

A decent snowpack is one of the keys to having a cold winter and so far it is building up nicely in the U.S:

Southeastern Canada snowcover:

 

[riverc0il]

Fox indicates snow depth is below normal this year for the northern part of the continent.

 

[KingM]

Fox indicates snow depth is below normal this year for the northern part of the continent.

The depth doesn't matter, it's the extent in area. I think he said that snow coverage was well below average in October, which was one factor in his prediction. I think the November coverage is quite good, but maybe this isn't as important.

 

[loafer89]

Personally I think that the forecast for a warm winter will be a bust and we will have a normal cold and snowy winter. The next two weeks out look cold and potentially snowy thus far.

 

[loafer89]

Meteorological winter starts on December 1st and Canada has decided to send us a gift:


Winter Shows Strong Offensive Line
Updated: Tuesday, November 27, 2007 3:28 PM

 

[riverc0il]

Meteorological winter starts on December 1st and Canada has decided to send us a gift:

Winter Shows Strong Offensive Line
Updated: Tuesday, November 27, 2007 3:28 PM

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Did any one else bust a gut laughing at that image? "BIG ARCTIC DUMP" "BRUTAL" "RACES" is this like reality weather or something? People are not satisfied with seeing a forecast, they need some big dramatic showy graphics or they are not impressed? Just another wussy NOAA forecast? :lol: I love the BIG ARCTIC DUMP, that is just awesome. The arrow looks like Canada is going to invade by surprising us in the Mid-West. We will never suspect them coming in from the Dakotas and striking at the convergence of the Ohio and Mississippi rivers, wow!

 

[loafer89]

I guess I did not see the humor in it, anyway I am just happy to see some subzero cold headed our way. It looks like the first subzero readings of the year will happen this weekend in northern New England.

 

[ajl50]

I laughed at big artic dump. But then again I have a 12 year old's sense of humor.

I agree that the warm winter prediction is a little overated. I think there will be a real warm up for a week or so in jan. that will throw off the average for the month...other than that i think the north country will have a good winter.

 

[loafer89]

It's really cold for early December even as mentioned in our forecast discussion out of Taunton:

IT WAS ANOTHER COLD WINTERS DAY...AT LEAST 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL...EVEN
COLDER THAN THE DEAD OF WINTER NORMALS...OCCURRING HERE DURING LATE
JANUARY.