Ski Resort Trends

[abc]

Are all of the ski area managers and trade associations wrong?

That wouldn't be the first time!

Did they predict all the changes listed in the OP 10 years prior to their happening?

 

[VTKilarney]

Another prediction: As competition for skiers increases, a major ski company with a Northeast presence, or a large stand-alone ski area in northern New England, will purchase a MUCH smaller ski area near an urban center such as Mt. Southington, Yawgoo, Blue Hills, or Shawnee Mountain. (Something cheap to run inasmuch as there isn't much terrain to make snow on in the first place.) They will aggressively market to learning skiers with extremely affordable packages for students and inexperienced adults. The intent is to develop new skiers and to get those new skiers to commit to skiing at the parent mountain farther north.

Here is one way they could do this: Everyone who learns to ski at the small ski area will be given a discount card that can be used at the larger ski area farther north. The card will offer a meaningful discount off of lift tickets and/or lodging during non-peak times. But here is the catch: The discount will be good so long as the card is used for at least four days of skiing each and every year. If you miss a year, the discount goes away. The card will be non-transferable.

The one flaw in the system is a need to avoid people pretending to be new skiers just to get the discount.

 

[VTKilarney]

And yet one more:
RFID will expand rapidly at ski areas closer to urban centers. This technology will be used to allow flexible ticketing options to match the increased complexities of modern life. Everything can purchased online.

Some options:
1) A ticket that you load with a set number of ski lift rides.
2) Tickets that are for a set time period (as little as one hour). The time window is activated when you get on a lift for the first time that day - whenever that may be. The skier picks whatever time duration they would like.
3) Tickets customized for particular lifts, such as a ticket that will only work on the ski race slope lift, or a ticket that will only work at a lift that serves a terrain park.
4) Tickets loaded with a set amount of vertical feet. This would be attractive to families with less experienced skiers who don't want to go to the summit.

This will be combined with a smartphone app that allows you to not only track your skiing (which some resorts already have), but will also let you see where your friends and family were last tracked on the mountain. Parents can de-activate their children's tickets through their smartphone if it is lunch time or they must unexpectedly leave.

 

[Cannonball]

And yet one more:
RFID will expand rapidly at ski areas closer to urban centers. This technology will be used to allow flexible ticketing options to match the increased complexities of modern life. Everything can be done online.

Some options:
1) A ticket that you load with a set number of ski lift rides.
2) Tickets that are for a set time period (as little as one hour). The time window is activated when you get on a lift for the first time that day - whenever that may be. The skier picks whatever time period they would like.
3) Tickets customized for particular lifts, such as a ticket that will only work on the ski race slope lift, or a ticket that will only work at a lift that serves a terrain park.

I sort of agree, but I think it will be handled differently. Instead of a ticket that restricts what you can do, it will be a ticket that charges you for what you do ski. Just like the EZpass on the highway. Your lift ticket will be linked to an account (credit card, pre-paid, etc) and you will be charged for the runs you take. Possibly with different rates for different types of terrain.

 

[SIKSKIER]

Ski forums will have automatic member elimination software based on "get over it".

 

[abc]

I sort of agree, but I think it will be handled differently. Instead of a ticket that restricts what you can do, it will be a ticket that charges you for what you do ski. Just like the EZpass on the highway.

+1

Though I'm not positive about the "charge" part. I think they're more likley to just use the data to track the usage and allocate resources accordingly. In fact, I'm surprise they haven't jump on that technology aalready. HHence my skepticism on the ski area management being able to predict their own industry trend.

 

[skiNEwhere]

I think you can pay per run at mountain high in SoCal, at least it was that way when I was there last in '09

 

[VTKilarney]

My last one for now:

Thanks to marketing departments, we will see a sharp increase in adult ski racing. The goal will be to get otherwise recreational skiers into racing. The course layouts will not be overly difficult. To encourage participation and competitiveness, there will a system in place to cap how much money is spent on equipment. This could mean that limitations will be placed on the equipment (e.g. aluminum poles only), or there may be an approved list of equipment (e.g. a list of skis that are not that expensive.) Points will carry over from week to week, and there will be a New England championship in the spring for the top points holders. It will be as much of a social event as a ski race. There will also be a point system to allow ski clubs or groups of skiers to compete, with a trophy awarded to the top overall ski club at the end of the year. The trophy will have lots of bragging rights, and will be displayed prominently at the club's home mountain until the following spring.

To emphasize the social aspect, there may be prizes for best wipeout, etc.

This idea is taken from bowling leagues. Bowling leagues are every bit as social as they are competitive, which one reason people still bowl on Tuesday nights.

 

[VTKilarney]

I think you can pay per run at mountain high in SoCal, at least it was that way when I was there last in '09

When I skied the first time in Austria in the early 1990's, they had already embraced RFID technology. I've been surprised that it has not been embraced more here. Somebody told me that the ski lifts at large resorts in Austria often have different owners, thus the appeal of RFID so they can track who used which lifts and compensate accordingly. I'm not sure how true that is.

 

[VTKilarney]

That wouldn't be the first time!

Did they predict all the changes listed in the OP 10 years prior to their happening?

I don't think that almost anything on the OP's list came as a surprise to the industry. The one exception may be the rise of snowboarding - but everyone knew by the 1980's that snowboarding was part of skiing's future.

And while you haven't produced any argument to suggest that my theory regarding baby boomers is indeed incorrect, are you suggesting that demographics are unpredictable? Of all of the things mentioned in this thread, demography is arguably the most predictable. If you were not aware, it's an actual science: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_analysis . While it may not be an exact science, the burden is certainly on you to prove that the consensus of demographers is incorrect.

Again, I've yet to see a single piece of evidence to suggest that I am engaging in "doom and gloom" rather than reality.

 

[Cannonball]

This idea is taken from bowling leagues. Bowling leagues are every bit as social as they are competitive, which one reason people still bowl on Tuesday nights.

 

[VTKilarney]

Lol!

 

[abc]

Like it or not, some baby boomers will be 83 years old by 2029.

2020's spans between 2020-2029. Baby boomers includes those who were born between 1946-1964.

Did you NOT choose the worst case scenario to support your argument of gloom and doom?

 

[VTKilarney]

2020's spans between 2020-2029. Baby boomers includes those who were born between 1946-1964.

Did you NOT choose the worst case scenario to support your argument of gloom and doom?

I gave different scenarios. I said that by the end of the 2020's, the oldest baby-boomers would be 83 and the youngest would be 65. (If we are talking about the 2020's, it only makes sense to talk about the trend through the entirety of the decade and not a mere portion thereof, no?) I then produced a report from Snowsports Industries America (a trade association), that showed the percentage of skiers based upon age. The report was for the year 2013. In 2013, baby boomers ranged in age from 49 to 67. This represents their peak earning years - hands down. And what does the report show? It shows that skiers aged 45 and older represent just 18.7% of skiers. Contrast this to the fact that people 45 and older make up 39.4% of the population.

Let's take it one step further. People ranging in age from 45-64 make up 26.4% of the population but only 16.4% of skiers. People aged 65 and older make up 13% of the population but only 2.3% of skiers. In other words, there is a sharp drop off in participation after age 64. Just to remain level with 45-64 year olds, skier participation for those ages 65 and older would have to be 8.1% of total skiers. In actuality, their participation is only 28.4% of what it needs to be to keep participation level with the previous age group.

What does this data mean? Among other things it demonstrates that older people are statistically less likely to ski than younger people, and blows the "dumbbell" theory out of the water.

For the sake of argument, even if you are correct and I chose a "worst case scenario", that does not change whatsoever the reality that as baby boomers age fewer of them will ski. You have now resorted to arguing degrees, rather than the underlying premise. This is a meaningless exercise since I never suggested that I knew to what degree baby boomers will drop out. I merely stated that "Ski areas struggle as baby boomers age out of the sport," with no opinion whatsoever as to how much they will struggle.

So I am yet again trying to figure out what exactly was "doom and gloom." I understand that the accusation was levied against me, but is there ANY factual basis for it? If there is, then fine. But if you made the accusation without any factual basis, I don't think that is a productive activity for this forum.

 

[Smellytele]

Paper maps will be replaced by electronic map displayed on goggle, triggered by proximity sensors

That would freak me out if it pops up while I am skiing. I would crash.

 

[Smellytele]

-Speed will be enforced with automatic radar guns that warn you via an electronic sign over the trail if you're going too fast (5 bucks say Breck or Vail will be the first to do this)

And void your ticket...

 

[skiNEwhere]

And void your ticket...

Knowing how much of speed nazi's they are I wouldn't be surprised if you'd at least have to go back to the ticket office to sign a written, one time warning before getting your ticket reactivated

 

[Smellytele]

Hey VTKilarney :
Disclaimer: This is meant to be a fun off-season thread.

 

[VTKilarney]

Hey VTKilarney :
Disclaimer: This is meant to be a fun off-season thread.

Then why immediately comment: "Mr Doom an Gloom. Turn back, we're doomed. We're never going to make it."

Was that your attempt to make the thread "fun" for everyone? If you are serious about keeping things fun, you could have said something like: "I don't think things will be as bad as you, so here are some of my predictions..."

Take some accountability for the tone your comment set.

So now let's get back to the fun...

 

[skiNEwhere]

Welcome back snowlover!