Skiing Weatherman Missive

[Greg]

Skiing Weatherman:

http://www.snocountry.com/article.php/20061230155427314

The last paragraph is the important part:

The current version of the El Nino is steadily weakening, and previous warm Decembers that coincided with weakening El Ninos produced dramatic turnarounds in the weather by the middle of January, and that is where I think we are headed. Those turnarounds had staying power, and that is a large part of the reason that I remain bullish about the second 2/3’s of this season.

I sure hope he's right...

 

[C2H5OH]

NOAA CPC outlook

climate prediction center's temperature outlook for January 7-11 looks frightening:

 

[koreshot]

I think its just a fancy way of saying "this crazy warm weather can't last forever, and I bet some time in mid to late january winter will finally kick in". Keeping fingers crossed - missing Jay!

 

[drjeff]

We're in the every other weekend thing now, where one weekend will be Late march spring temps (x-mas weekend/next weekend, etc) and then the following one will be cold(or I guess cold is a relative thing and "seasonable" might be a better descriptive term). Based on that if the pattern doesn't finally implode upon itself, look for warm temps next weekend, and MLK weekend should have similar temps to this past weekend.

If the water off of Australia is finally cooling off and making its way towards the coast of South America to break down the El Nino pattern as weather folks are suggesting, then I'm all for a short term decreasing of the Antarctic ice cap by having a few super carriers tow some monster ice bergs up into this El Nino pool of warm water!

 

[loafer89]

I think that alot of the extended outlooks will look for cold air if it is there or not due to the fact that the coldest part of winter is three weeks away, roughly from January 20th - February 10th. I have been reading alot of the NOAA forecast discussions and the meteorologists keep mentioning how they keep adjusting the forecast for climatology, which I take it to mean the models want to have lower overnight lows and lower maximum temperatures because of the time of year and what the weather should be like.

Any thoughts on this?

 

[SnowRider]

I am not sweating on this weather deal to much. I mean winter is going to make a comeback sooner or later. Ill have my good days Ill have my bad ones. Hey ssnowboardings snowboarding eh? Heres to just skiing and riding and having fun:beer: (of course its non alcoholic;-) )

 

[Zand]

climate prediction center's temperature outlook for January 7-11 looks frightening:

Truth be told, I think that actually looks good. The whole season so far, the whole country has been red. Now we can see that it is moving east and hopefully out of here in a few weeks. And BTW, the darker colors don't necessarily mean temps are that much warmer, it just means that theres a larger chance of above average temps.

 

[ALLSKIING]

More good news for next week!!

 

[Grassi21]

More good news for next week!!

That is a purty picture.

 

[TwinTips21]

That still is not where we need the jet stream here in the east.

 

[koreshot]

As long as it comes over our way at some point, I'll be happy. In my super duper expert opinion, we will have Nor'easter before end of January. Its so on its not even funny.

 

[askstowell]

That is a purty picture.

I really hope we can believe it this time and it really happens. Too much of the "meterologists who cried wolf" this winter. LOL!

 

[Tin Woodsman]

Rest assured, for the regions we give a crap about, the pattern is changing - anyone who says differently doesn't know what they are talking about. Since the beginning of November we've had a HUGE low sitting in the northern Pacific that was cranking warm, moist maritime air into North America. This pattern didn't allow any cold air to come down from the arctic into Canada or the US - it would always get quickly blown off the continent by a fast moving jet stream. This is why the cooldowns we've seen have been quite transitory in nature.

Now, all the models are in alignment - a similarly massive omega block is taking shape in the eastern Pacific that will help to not only slow the jet stream down, but it will also be the mechanism that delivers cold air into the US. Some models are forecasting temperatures at 5000' in the -40 celsius range near Banff. Better dress warmly.

While the Atlantic is in lousy shape (no -NAO or blocking), the Pacific is a bigger body of water and is more important. We'll start to see the temps slowly cool down for good next week before the arctic pain train arrives towards the end of the month. I think this is going to be a great pattern for the NE and NY ski resorts. We'll have cold air in place witha split flow pattern bringing in moisture and storms from two directions - clippers from the NW and coastal lows from the SW. Areas prone to receiving lake effect or lake enhancement snowfall should be particularly favored with the Great Lakes still in the low to mid 40s. Lots of energy just waiting to explode into clouds and snowfall when the arctic air does arrive. And it wil arrive.

 

[loafer89]

I was reading a whole lot of forecast discussions on NOAA from North Dakota to Pennsyvania and some meterologists feel that the coming cold next week will only last two-three days.

One good thing is that snowpack is building in Canada which will help keep any Artic air from modifying too quickly. The January sun angle is increasing by the day though and we are now gaining sunlight and longer days and we are done with meteorological winter in 57 days so I hope the Arctic air does come soon.

Stingingly cold Artic air will be most welcome by me with open arms. This warm weather is making me cranky.

 

[loafer89]

I am also curious as to where the cold air is right now in Siberia where it is expected to migrate from as it is currently 36F in Moscow which is 15F above normal for 7;00am in the morning, 14F in Novosibirsk which is near average. Ther is some -30F to -40F weather in Central Siberia, maybe that we move eastbound over the North Pole and Alaska.

 

[thebigo]

Heres a couple of quotes to go with the image above from accuweather. They have been guilty of over-hyping long term weather trends in the past but lets hope they are right this time.

Tired of all the mild weather? Want to see some real winter for a change? You'll get your wish. A dramatic shift in air streams will occur across North America next week. Recently, the polar jet stream has been completely out of the game, but there is every reason to believe that it will become the main player within the next 10 days. This will allow arctic air straight from Siberia to pour over the Pole, move southward through Canada then into the United States. The first attack of the cold air will be into the Northwest and northern Plains. From there the cold wave will spread to the south and east. Think about it. Places that will be in the 40s and 50s Wednesday may never get above zero by the middle of next week.

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&article=1

This will be the first sign that something different is coming. Friday, there will be a very noticeable temperature drop across the north-central states. That will just get it closer to normal, but after 40s and 50s, the locals will notice the difference. The entire change to colder will be like walking down a flight of stairs. Watch that last step, though. It will be a killer. Just when people are starting to feel that winter might not happen this year, it's going to strike with a vengeance. The arctic blast that will reach this part of the country during the middle of next week will create one of the biggest temperature reversals in recent times with readings suddenly winding up below zero.

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&article=5

 

[Tin Woodsman]

I am also curious as to where the cold air is right now in Siberia where it is expected to migrate from as it is currently 36F in Moscow which is 15F above normal for 7;00am in the morning, 14F in Novosibirsk which is near average. Ther is some -30F to -40F weather in Central Siberia, maybe that we move eastbound over the North Pole and Alaska.

The weather will turn a lot colder, and for a lot longer than 2-3 days, in the second half of the month, not next week. Book it.

And yes, Central Siberia, the North Pole and far northern Canada is where the cold air is going to come from.

 

[askstowell]

The weather will turn a lot colder, and for a lot longer than 2-3 days, in the second half of the month, not next week. Book it.

And yes, Central Siberia, the North Pole and far northern Canada is where the cold air is going to come from.

I so hope you're right between the money spent this year in advance of season, cancelled practices, cancelled races, etc.

 

[kingslug]

Well, the trail map at Whiteface is starting to fill in. Looks like I'll be making some more trips up there.

 

[Greg]

This makes me smile...

http://www.snocountry.com/article.php/20070106115145658