Spring Skiing and COVID??

[ss20]

So now we have two highly effective vaccines coming our way. From what I hear/read, front-line workers could be getting vaccinated in December. I don't think any of this is "news" or unexpected. However, it seems like the timeline for when we'll be largely back to normal keeps getting reduced. It went from 2022, to late 2021... and now the Moderna CEO is saying by Memorial Day if you want a COVID shot, you'll be able to get one. And I personally think it will be sooner. I'm a pretty firm believer that the "critical mass" of COVID exposure (through a vaccine or through the disease its self) is closer than we think. Not "close", but closer.

Even if we're not back to "normal" in March or April, we could certainly be behind the worst. Will resorts push for spring skiing? It's easier to tailgate outside. and there's not much need at all for indoor facilities. Especially with the late start we've had now in the northeast maybe resorts save some of their snowmaking budgets for February when the future is more clear. Resorts are bleeding financially but great skiing in March/April could be a huuuuge boost to selling next season's pass sales. I would expect places like Killington, which normally do not attach spring skiing privilege's to the following year's season passes to do so if capacity constraints are no longer a concern.

It should be interesting to watch. The next 6 weeks+ tho are gonna suck with the holidays.

 

[NYDB]

If we are back to normal in march 21, most people with kids will be involved in the school spring sports they missed out on last year. And many districts around here didn't cancel fall sports, they postponed them until the spring. So you could have multiple sports seasons going in the spring. That'll keep families busy.

By March 1, the resorts will know how many people deferred their passes to 21-22 winter. Which I expect will be alot.

By march 1st, most of the 10 day or less skiers have moved on.

Easter is early next year, and many schools probably wont have February or Easter Break to make up for the days they will lose to covid this fall/winter.

So no, I don't see resorts trying to extend the season with late snowmaking. I would love to be wrong though.

 

[kingslug]

I doubt it as many employees will simply not be there to gear up the operation.

 

[abc]

Will resorts push for spring skiing?

No, I doubt they will "push" for spring skiing.

But I do hope they will not cut back or close early. Yes, I'm counting on spring skiing for the 21 season.

I'm always a spring skiing fan to begin with. And I quite agree with your analysis of Covid vaccine being available to many of us by March/April. (well, I'm old enough to have "some" albeit small priority). So yeah, I hope they stay open and keep the trails open.

Some pass has spring privilege. I'm assuming they will continue to do so. Yes, I'm eyeing those.

I'm sitting out the "core" (or "main") season of 20/21. I think I'll be pretty motivated by spring of 21!

 

[BenedictGomez]

I'm planning on getting jabbed in January, but what I think people are missing is that not much changes until/unless an awful lot of people get jabbed. We live in a country where only about 40% get the flu vaccine each year, where we have a non-insignificant portion of the country who are mouth-breathing anti-vaxxers, plus you now have a good chunk who say they wont get it simply because it was developed under Trump, which is ******* ridiculous, but hey, it's 2020. So these are all numerical challenges for vaccine effectiveness nationally. Hell, just on this board alone there are plenty of people who said under no circumstances will they take a COVID19 vaccine.

So right now I'm thinking on an April ski trip to Smuggler's Notch, and for all I know, it sadly may be the only skiing I do this season. I have no intention of dealing with the clusterbleep that will likely take place in December & January unless things lighten up.

 

[JimG.]

I always enjoy ss20's fervent optimism.

 

[ss20]

I always enjoy ss20's fervent optimism.

HA I know this is sarcasm given you cancelled your K pass but I'll take it as a compliment...

Apparently the mountain ops teams are also optimists as dozens of ski areas from Hunter to Sugarloaf blew snow last night.

 

[JimG.]

HA I know this is sarcasm given you cancelled your K pass but I'll take it as a compliment...

Apparently the mountain ops teams are also optimists as dozens of ski areas from Hunter to Sugarloaf blew snow last night.

You misread me...I regret deeply having to cancel that pass but this season anyway it's more trouble than it's worth for me.

And I'm not being sarcastic I really do enjoy that positivity. I'm equally positive I will have a great season in NY.

 

[ss20]

You misread me...I regret deeply having to cancel that pass but this season anyway it's more trouble than it's worth for me.

And I'm not being sarcastic I really do enjoy that positivity. I'm equally positive I will have a great season in NY.

Sorry for mis-reading. It just seems like 80% of this forum is convinced there won't be a ski season, and while they can think that I just don't see it from a rationale perspective. People are skiing out West, and a bunch of places opening here very soon.

 

[ScottySkis]

You misread me...I regret deeply having to cancel that pass but this season anyway it's more trouble than it's worth for me.

And I'm not being sarcastic I really do enjoy that positivity. I'm equally positive I will have a great season in NY.

Up I Agree

 

[abc]

Sorry for mis-reading. It just seems like 80% of this forum is convinced there won't be a ski season, and while they can think that I just don't see it from a rationale perspective. People are skiing out West, and a bunch of places opening here very soon.

Good luck to you for a good season.

With the travel restriction, I don't see how to be able to "legally" get to the mountains.

Back in the summer, I felt this would be a good season for those who's willing to jump through the hoops of various restrictions/reservations etc. I was convinced the slopes will be half empty. Hence a great season for those who can.

But now, I'm not so sure any more... The slope may not be half empty if everyone ignores the travel restrictions. Or if the travel restrictions are to be enforced, many of us won't get to ski outside of our resident state.

Just to make the uncertainty even less appetizing, we may have a vaccine available to the masses by March/April. If so, it's likely all the restrictions will be lifted around that time. It's just so much easier to sit out the "core season", get a spring pass of some sort and ski my heart out in spring when the sun is out and the snow soft! Without all the hassle and uncertainties!!!

It's ironic in a way. If there's no end in sight on this thing, I'd be more likely to take my chance here and there. But with the end of it just around the corner, why rush and take any unnecessary chances? It's like running a red light in NYC. You know you'll be stopped by the next one being red. Whilst if you wait for the green, you get green for all the subsequent lights. Much less stress, and you get there just as fast.

Yep, I'll wait for spring.

 

[Bumpsis]

Waiting for spring is the theme that's bouncing in my head as a likely scenario as well. A bulk of my skiing is done at Sugarloaf and Sunday River, so maybe there is some hope for good times but it's tough for me to get more than 8 days into March and whatever little April there may be. Hmmm, maybe I'll just defer that ICON pass

 

[ss20]

I've read articles saying we could have 20-40 million doses of vaccination ready by the end of this year, here in the US. Cuomo said NY will have 170,000 doses....by the 15th of December. CNN said today 150 million doses/75m people vaccinated by March, potentially. I think that would be enough to at least eliminate the BS quarantine restrictions. I do think we'll be wearing masks for a looooooonnngggg time though.

 

[Smellytele]

So less than 25% vaccinated by March

 

[abc]

So less than 25% vaccinated by March

Not to forget, it takes a couple weeks for the immunity to develop after the 2nd jab, which is several weeks after the first jab.

So, those 25% will have immunity by end of March?

On the other hand, by late March, I'll be able to sleep in my car if need be and not bother with hotels. And "car as base lodge" will be down right pleasant in late March too.

So yeah, spring skiing! Vaccine or not.

 

[ss20]

Fauci says back to normal in the second half of 2021. Defined as full capacity indoor dining, return of sports, theaters, etc. Vaccine available to all who want it late March or early April.

 

[drjeff]

You also have to keep 2 things in mind about the vaccinations and how it may, or may not, effect the pace at which society reopens.

Presuming we all can agree, that for most anyone who's "healthy" and under say 55, the potential side effects if one gets COVID, are very low.

If that is an agreed upon starting point (and I get that some will disagree vehemently about that, especially if they're predisposed to not actually look at the data and just consume the media headlines that often make it feel like any positive case will end up in a body bag), then a vaccine strategy where the highest risk and most vulnerable can be immunized quickly, then even without a vaccination, society can be more rapidly reopened, using some of the basics still like masks and social distancing, long before the majority of people have been vaccinated, and reopened in a safe way.

Granted to make this happen, the Karen's and Ken's of the world need to be "deprogrammed" from how they've been scared, and that, even with vaccination of the majority of society, may never happen in a remotely timely fashion

 

[abc]

any positive case will end up in a body bag

It probably won't. I know a couple who didn't died.

But they haven't been able to get up the stair to their 2nd floor several months after they "recovered"!

Wonder how many laps you'll be able to do on a powder day?

 

[ss20]

You also have to keep 2 things in mind about the vaccinations and how it may, or may not, effect the pace at which society reopens.

Presuming we all can agree, that for most anyone who's "healthy" and under say 55, the potential side effects if one gets COVID, are very low.

If that is an agreed upon starting point (and I get that some will disagree vehemently about that, especially if they're predisposed to not actually look at the data and just consume the media headlines that often make it feel like any positive case will end up in a body bag), then a vaccine strategy where the highest risk and most vulnerable can be immunized quickly, then even without a vaccination, society can be more rapidly reopened, using some of the basics still like masks and social distancing, long before the majority of people have been vaccinated, and reopened in a safe way.

Granted to make this happen, the Karen's and Ken's of the world need to be "deprogrammed" from how they've been scared, and that, even with vaccination of the majority of society, may never happen in a remotely timely fashion

I agree 100%....get the people at-risk vaccinated and keep the masks and the distancing but re-open society to a certain degree of normalcy. That's why I don't really get the people who say we need 300 million vaccines before things will go back to normal.... for 250 million of those people if they got covid it'd be of no real concern.

Unfortunately I don't think VT, CA, and NY are going to be looking at this logically and keep things tied down much longer than they have to. By the same token there's gonna be a bunch of states (FL, UT, TX, ect) who drop restrictions too early and maintain low, but still significant covid numbers for a long LONG loooooong time.

 

[Zermatt]

Not to forget, it takes a couple weeks for the immunity to develop after the 2nd jab, which is several weeks after the first jab.

So, those 25% will have immunity by end of March?

On the other hand, by late March, I'll be able to sleep in my car if need be and not bother with hotels. And "car as base lodge" will be down right pleasant in late March too.

So yeah, spring skiing! Vaccine or not.

Wrong.

PFE data released today says 14 days after first shot you're pretty much set. I wouldn't be surprised if the 2 shot regimen gets modified.