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Storm timing fo resorts

BenedictGomez

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Given the Euro has handled this storm better from day 1, I bet this is likely a far more realistic map of what might happen (and that's taking "realistic" with a massive grain of salt given the enormous uncertainty here).

56012751099198561105918.png



What's amazing to me is the sharp cutoffs in snow levels its' predicting with this storm. Look how you can go from a dusting to a FOOT of snow in a mere 65 or 70 miles in NJ, or from 8 or 9 inches to THIRTY inches in New England.
 

billski

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This is a model which predicts 10" of snow for every 1" of rain. Almost no public forecast uses such a ratio. This would be an extreme amount, but it helps the stoke ;)

Can't wait to see Matt Noyes get all wound up. I'll bet AmericanWx is entirely out of control by now.
 

BenedictGomez

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This is a model which predicts 10" of snow for every 1" of rain. Almost no public forecast uses such a ratio. This would be an extreme amount, but it helps the stoke ;)


No; a 10:1 ratio is about the average snow/h2o content ratio, so it's the ratio they use from baseline and is why you see 10:1 in that model.

If the temps are way below freezing you can actually get much higher 15:1, 20:1, 25:1 etc.... snow to h2o ratios, and then the snowfall amounts would go higher, not lower. But 10:1 is completely normal, not extreme.
 

WinnChill

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Should be a bit higher than 10:1 with this...then you have to figure southern areas get more moisture but slightly lower ratios...northern areas get less moisture but higher ratios...fun stuff.
 

deadheadskier

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Any estimates as to what time the snow is supposed to start in Metro Boston? Is it likely we see school cancellations for the day?
 

BenedictGomez

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Should be a bit higher than 10:1 with this...then you have to figure southern areas get more moisture but slightly lower ratios...northern areas get less moisture but higher ratios...fun stuff.

Is the less h2o / more h2o because the southern stream has moved farther from the gulf and "used up" some of its' reserve?
 

timm

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Any estimates as to what time the snow is supposed to start in Metro Boston? Is it likely we see school cancellations for the day?

Assuming the forecast continues looking like this I'd bet on preemptive cancellations -- supposed to hit after the morning commute last I heard.
 

WinnChill

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Is the less h2o / more h2o because the southern stream has moved farther from the gulf and "used up" some of its' reserve?

Northern areas will be further away from the main storm and in the colder air. With sharp cutoffs like you mentioned in another thread somewhere, northern areas probably wouldn't get very much. Their saving grace is that the northern system (from the Midwest) delivers some moisture before merging
 

Nick

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when is this expected to start / stop. In other words, will Friday be a powder day, or is mostly going to continue overnight and leave us first chair fighting on Saturday.
 
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