The Elephant in the Room

[Riverskier]

I find it funny that when we have a cold and snowy Winter, the global warming folks are quick to point out that one season doesn't represent a trend. But.... when we have a warm Winter, it must be global warming. Admittedly I don't know much about the issue, but I do know as a fact that natural fluctuations in the Earth's temperature have always occured.

 

[Hawkshot99]

Admittedly I don't know much about the issue, but I do know as a fact that natural fluctuations in the Earth's temperature have always occured.

Exactly. Remember those dinosaur things that were killed off by ice ages, and then we had times when the entire world was real warm? There were no humans then to have caused the changes.

 

[oakapple]

I don't know much about the issue, but I do know as a fact that natural fluctuations in the Earth's temperature have always occured.

But that doesn't mean all fluctuations are "natural".

 

[kingslug]

Blame Europe..they stole all the snow...

 

[wa-loaf]

I find it funny that when we have a cold and snowy Winter, the global warming folks are quick to point out that one season doesn't represent a trend. But.... when we have a warm Winter, it must be global warming. Admittedly I don't know much about the issue, but I do know as a fact that natural fluctuations in the Earth's temperature have always occured.

Not really. People who believe that GW is happening are pretty quick to point out that one weather event or season has no real bearing on things. It was the GW deniers who were out in force last year ...

 

[Nick]

My non-political answer: I think things are cyclical. Some years good, some years bad. That said, it sure does seem like things are going more to extremes recently (record setting cold / snow (last winter), record setting warm temps / lack of snow (this winter).

Regarding global warming: I am of the ilk that thinks that it probably is happening, but I don't think there is any easy way to tell the cause of it. (man made or just a natural cycle). There are way too many influencing factors to isolate out the causes. In my non-scientific opinion.

I just hope we have snow soon, that's all :lol:

 

[Nick]

Blame Europe..they stole all the snow...

Europe snow + NA snow = average snow for both?

 

[Bostonian]

The whole GW issue I believe is very real and measurable. As Oak said, there has been measurable statistical proof, showing that Vermont among other states has experienced their average temperatures increase. As a result, I read and saw on television, that while the increases may not be that noticeable, what it is doing is causing more extreme forms of weather to take place. Warm spells like this, will be further accentuated, while cold spells less so. Ocean temps become more mild, allowing for greater precipitation and etc. The question is whether this is a natural phenomenon, man made or a combination of two.

 

[speden]

Climate change is probably having some impact on the winters here. They just revised the USDA planting guide for the U.S and some plants and trees can now grow further north than in the past, while others are struggling due to climate change. I was just reading that a lot of 700+ year old yellow cedar trees are dying off in Alaska because their roots are freezing. Normally the roots were protected by a thick layer of snowpack that is often no longer present.

We should continue to see some above average snowfall years due to the changes since greater evaporation means more precip of the frozen variety, provided it's below freezing when the precip happens. We've had some precip this winter, but unfortunately it wasn't often when the temps were below freezing.

 

[Nick]

I should probably fertilize my lawn... i think the forsythia are starting to come in

 

[Abubob]

Last year when we had a ton of snow folks who complained were saying that it was global warming.

This year when there is little snow, the other folks who are complaining are saying that it is global warming.

So yes, it must be global warming. :wink:

+1

 

[St. Bear]

I like what this guy on the Mount Washington Observatory had to say on Accuweather:

Looking at temperatures first, we are definitely running above average, that is no secret. Every month so far this winter season has seen a monthly average temperature above average: 1.7 degrees, 6.5 degrees, 6.2 degrees, and 3.4 degrees respectively for October through January. Obviously, this is somewhat impressive (or depressing, for me personally), but again, it's not unprecedented. At this point, I am speaking purely on an empirical level, but only because I simply don't have the time at this point to dig through our nearly 80 year climate record to prove it with numbers. One thing that I will say may be particular unusual about this winter is the lack of extreme cold. Even in some of the warmer winters that I have been here for, we have at least had a couple extreme cold outbreaks where air temperatures drop below 20 below zero. So far this winter, our coldest reading has been 17 below zero. If that trend continues, and we don't even see a reading below 20 below, I will definitely have to do some data analysis and figure out if that has ever occurred before in our history.

Looking at snowfall, again, it should not come as a surprise that we are below average for snowfall right now. However, when you compare this year to last year, we are nearly equal in snowfall total. Before I get ahead of myself though, let's look at this year. Here are snowfall totals for October through January listed respectively, with departure from average in parenthesis: 20.7 (+6.9), .18.6 (-22.2), 38.6 (-11.4), 38.8 (-14.0). That gives us a total for that same time period of 116.7 inches, which is 40.7 inches below average. If we look at the same time period for the 2010-2011 winter, we see a total of 118.8 inches, or 38.6 inches below average. So, as I was saying, there is a negligible difference between snowfall this year compared to last year, so far. However, when you look at our snowpack in various places around the mountain, there is a big visual difference between this year and last year. That has everything to do with how temperatures have tended to fluctuate so much, especially back in November and December. During those months, we would build up a bit of a snowpack, and then it would all melt, then the cycle would start again.

 

[Nick]

I'm actually surprised on the 2nd part of that because it sure doesn't feel like we have had close to as many snow events. I'm pretty sure in MA where I live if we hadn't had a single inch of snow melt since October we would still have < 2' of snow.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Global Warming ? Not political, but is this year's lousy snow and warm an anomaly or trend, what do you think.

I think Global Warming (rebranded as Climate Change) is the greatest scam in the history of mankind, both in terms of scale and reach, as well as in terms of $$$ extracted.

Last year when we had a ton of snow folks who complained were saying that it was global warming.

This year when there is little snow, the other folks who are complaining are saying that it is global warming.

So yes, it must be global warming. :wink:

If it's too hot, it's because of global warming.

If it's too cold, it's because of global warming.

If it snows, it's because of global warming.

If it doesn't snow, it's because of global warming.

If there is a hurricane, it's because of global warming

If there are no hurricanes, it's because of global warming

The science left the yard a LOOOooong time ago on this one. It's almost more like a cult religion than actual science at this point, and one of those religions where they're constantly asking you to "give money" to be "SAY-veeeeeed", to boot.

 

[jrmagic]

The question is whether this is a natural phenomenon, man made or a combination of two.

That's pretty much the way I look at it. I think there are small cycles with larger cycles that we don't have enough data to measure. even temperature data for the last 500 years would be a mere pimple on the arse of a fly when looked at in the contect of the Earth's several billion years of existence. There have been at least 5 "ice ages" and there have been warmer periods as well. Now I'm gonna leave this thread and go back to wishing for some snow.

 

[AdironRider]

I think Global Warming (rebranded as Climate Change) is the greatest scam in the history of mankind, both in terms of scale and reach, as well as in terms of $$$ extracted.




If it's too hot, it's because of global warming.

If it's too cold, it's because of global warming.

If it snows, it's because of global warming.

If it doesn't snow, it's because of global warming.

If there is a hurricane, it's because of global warming

If there are no hurricanes, it's because of global warming

The science left the yard a LOOOooong time ago on this one. It's almost more like a cult religion than actual science at this point, and one of those religions where they're constantly asking you to "give money" to be "SAY-veeeeeed", to boot.

Amen to that.

Dont even get me started on the bogus green loans Obummer likes to give out, but thats getting political.

Climate Change has been going on for a long time before us humans decided to floor it in our cars. But that would hurt the dollars coming in so its convieniently forgotten about.

I also read a neat study on how the memory works. You always hear that the snow was better back in the day, when the historical averages just dont add up.

The studies ultimate point was that similar in how the human brain has no physical capacity to remember the feeling of pain, that similar effects can be seen in terms of memory. People block out bad memories (ala in the case of skiers you always remember the pow days and not the cruddy days after a freeze/thaw event) and remember the positive memories. This applies deeply in these type of global warming skiing arguments.

 

[Nick]

On a side note, shouldn't oil prices / gas prices be lower with all the building supply?

 

[oakapple]

I also read a neat study on how the memory works. You always hear that the snow was better back in the day, when the historical averages just dont add up.

Except: there actually IS real data that we are getting less snow than 50 and 100 years ago. That part of it is not just a figment of the imagination.

You're free to argue that human activity had nothing to do with it, but you are not free to argue that it ain't happening.

 

[ScottySkis]

All i know is we used get snow and cold more often,unfortunately not so much any more.

 

[AdironRider]

Except: there actually IS real data that we are getting less snow than 50 and 100 years ago. That part of it is not just a figment of the imagination.

You're free to argue that human activity had nothing to do with it, but you are not free to argue that it ain't happening.

Not here in Wyoming. Thats the point. We have had our top four years in terms of water content and snowfall in the past 15 years. I have easy access to snowfall data from the mid 60's for my specific location.

For every place that has seen decreases, I would argue there are plenty of others that have seen increases. Theres also plenty of scepticism about those data points you are arguing.

The problem comes from the money involved. The scientific method calls for research then you can come to conclusions. However, with the global warming fiasco, you have money coming hoping to prove a point one way or another, prior to any research. I do not trust any science that relates specifically to data points regarding climate change, as there has yet to be a study that isnt biased one way or another. (Im talking funding here not data, which you'll notice is left out of most arguments on this topic).

Either way, its not the end of the world either. All it takes is some big ass volcano in Iceland or hell even here in Wyoming with the biggest one of all to go off and undue decades of work and billions of dollars spent to prevent climate change. Its all for naught, regardless. You can argue all day about it, but its a senseless argument.

Anyone who argues for global warming is basing their entire argument on data points that are shaky at best outside of a 30 year time frame. Furthermore, you are basing arguments on weather data from specific locations that havent changed. Any skier knows that when a ski area calls a foot, there will be some places on the hill with less, and some on the hill with more, often in different locations from the last storm. To say that such and such a point, on average, having less snowfall means GLOBAL WARMINGZ!@!##!!! is a fool. Thats the beef. Here in Jackson, while our historical average should say the top of the gondola gets the most snowfall, in reality last year by almost 80 inches, it was a ridgeline on the lower faces. See the point?