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The Official 11/24-25 Storm DiscussionThread

drjeff

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I'm kind of thinking this one(if at all) will amount to little more than a barely cover up the unraked leaves event where some snow falls :( The set up that is keeping us in this GREAT cold air is VERY, VERY strong and DRY, to the point where some decent storms rolling into British Columbia recently have been basically getting squeezed of all their moitsure by the time they get to basically the Mississippi River.

The models show that the HUGE dip in the East part of the Jetstream that current is in place wants to try and flatten out next week, which should help the Northeast for storm track favorability. But, my hunch is that it's going to take a sizeable low pressure system as this change is happening to be able to produce anything of significance given that it will be moisture starved when it gets to the EAST Coast and it doesn't seem like there will be much, if any blocking system to keep the low in a favorable position to rack up some decent accumulation :(

What wouldn't suprise me is that if this talked about low before Thanksgiving is the catalyst to get the storm track that we need for a major East Coast event, once that happens, there has been/appears that there will be a decent supply of low pressure systems that should be heading for the Northern US West Coast/Southern Canadian West Coast that could become beneficial for East Coast snow accumulation.

Just remember though, what mother nature does and what weather forcasting models THINK she'll do are often very, very different :rolleyes:
 

billski

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Inflammatory Remarks

The Forums on ACCUWEATHER has 74pages regarding this storm

That's an interesting discussion. Seems they can't agree either. But it's fun and I like some of the assertions posted, even if they could turn out to be fiction, it's always better to hope. So I'll call mine the "wishcast"

"According to my astrometeorological calculations on climate conditions, the fall season will arrive earlier than normal and will lead to an earlier than expected winter. This winter will last from mid-November 2008 into May 2008"
:-DI love inflammatory remarks like this:cool:

"I am forecasting a long winter for this reason, as I see spring 2009 arriving latter than usual, with a delay in climate and spring weather until early June for many regions of North America."
:-DOooooh, I love it. Skiing through May!8)


"Expect a stonger-than-normal northern jet stream this winter bringing about northwestern winds anf Alberta clipper systems into the Great Lakes, and upstate New York and New England"
:-DDid someone say SNOW?8)

By March 6, 2009, a six-week Venus retrograde (Mar. 6 to April 17) will delay the onset of proper spring climate
:-DOh Man, Venus is my mistress :cool:


"Think and act about 4-5 weeks ahead of what one would normally do to prepare for fall and especially winter this year."
:-DDamn, I need new snow tires!8)
 

billski

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I'm kind of thinking this one(if at all) will amount to little more than a barely cover up the unraked leaves event where some snow falls :( The set up that is keeping us in this GREAT cold air is VERY, VERY strong and DRY, to the point where some decent storms rolling into British Columbia recently have been basically getting squeezed of all their moitsure by the time they get to basically the Mississippi River.

So the bottom line is, "it's gonna be cold and stay that way for a while" that's all we know.

With that, the snowmakers are doing the right thing. :)
 

The Sneak

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I can't deal with 95% of the posts on the accuweather forums because they are all like this:

BASED ON THE (insert lone outlier model showing remote chance of significant snowfall for the wishcaster's area) LATEST INFO I AM FORECASTING A LEVEL 5 KILLSTORM FOR EBF COUNTY.

And then next day RAIN AGAIN OH NOES GOD HATES US!!!1
 

billski

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I can't deal with 95% of the posts on the accuweather forums because they are all like this:

BASED ON THE (insert lone outlier model showing remote chance of significant snowfall for the wishcaster's area) LATEST INFO I AM FORECASTING A LEVEL 5 KILLSTORM FOR EBF COUNTY.

And then next day RAIN AGAIN OH NOES GOD HATES US!!!1

It's not about ACCURACY it's about RATINGS! :smash:

I look for the forecast that suits my desires. Then I build a pyre to Ullr and pray. That's as scientific as it gets for me! :)
 

nelsapbm

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The local guys up here in Burlington (WCAX) are not saying much other than look for snow mixing with rain and sleet in the "warmer areas" (I'm guessing the Champlain Valley) on Monday and Tuesday. We're still a few days out so I'm sure the forecast will change 10 times before then.
 

Glenn

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Sweet. I'm going to pull the snow blower out of the shed this weekend.
 

JPTracker

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Jay Peaks Forecast:

November 21st, 2008

Light to occasional moderate upslope snows Saturday and more to come much of next week…

We continue on a track to accrue and build a base of snow with recent falls of natural snow, and the great conditions for making snow going into Monday.

All eyes are on the making of a complex storm system that could deliver a solid foot over the course of Monday through Thanksgiving. The storm system is very complex as it is one that might feature too much warm air entrainment for short period of time…rising snow levels off the valley floor and making it more elevation dependent on Tuesday. This will be coupled with strong easterly winds…that could produce possible blizzard like conditions on the slopes at the storms height.

For ski weather junkies, this a classic “Miller B” coastal storm” that then backtracks inland while doing a loop across southern New England. Not all computer models are in agreement, so the evolution of this storms will carefully monitored and reported to you on Monday morning. The storm will likely unload around a foot onto Jay Peak before Thanksgiving!! Though the snow might be wetter than usual, with the chance there could be a little rain on valley floors, we’ll have to watch the possibility of a little crust on lower slopes. Hey it’s just November – but can you say Powder!

It's time to head up there right after Thanksgiving.
 

skiing is life

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im not too exited about this clipper. Where i am im just supposed to get a mix of rain and snow then showers which switch back to snow and then switches over to ice. accodring to the accuweather hourly forcast. very messy:puke:
 

Glenn

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I'm trying to figure this one out. Looks like rain in CT, BLAH! But I'm trying to figure out what it's going to do in the Mt. Snow area. They have a flood watch...but the text forecast on NWS doesn't call for much rain?
 

billski

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Western NY looks sweet
day2_psnow_gt_04.gif
 
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Anybody getting any precip??? It looks like lots of rain down here..combined with frozen ground will make for a mess..and I'm helping to set tombstones tomorrow..ahhh
 

Euler

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Maybe some So VT Snow???

NOAA/NWS has issued a "Winter Weather Advisory" for Southern VT, including Mt. Snow:

459 PM EST MON NOV 24 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT.

A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. FOUR TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A
LITTLE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

I'll be hoping for more snow than rain from this one, but I'm not holding my breath.
 

Euler

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Just when you thought the cold was here to stay for winter...

You remembered you live in New England.... :roll:

In So VT we never expect the cold to truly stay for the winter. This place gets more "wintry mix" than you can imagine. Our school cancellations are more often from freezing rain than from large snow accumulations.
 
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