The Official 12/1-12/2 Storm Discussion Thread

[JD]

Chicago looking at 10-15 inches. I'm liking the projected storm track right now for Northern NE. Might wanna travel friday afternoon, Sat. AM could be slow going from points south.

 

[JimG.]

Chicago looking at 10-15 inches. I'm liking the projected storm track right now for Northern NE. Might wanna travel friday afternoon, Sat. AM could be slow going from points south.

Travel where?

Utah?

 

[ctenidae]

Progress across the Southern Tier-

My dad in Arkansas:

hot here too, supposed to be in 20's tonight---highs today forecast at 35 in fayettenam to 64 in eldorado--talked to client who was pheasanting in kansas, went from 70 to 17 in 10 hrs---sounds like pneumonia time and my thumb says some shit is on its way

My brother in eastern Tennessee:
its been hot as shit here for 5 days. I say hot, meaning 75...but it
is late November. We had 2 days of snow once, two weeks ago, resorts
here are crying. Its raining now, a thunderstorm actually, still 70
degrees

 

[awf170]

Fairbanks calling for highs in the 50's-60's today, and then thunderstorms tomorrow. :roll: :angry: Typical December weather I guess. :roll:

Anyone else think we should take Trailboss' :roll: privilages away? I think you average atleast two per post. You always find a way to bring out the bright side of things...

 

[thetrailboss]

Anyone else think we should take Trailboss' :roll: privilages away? I think you average atleast two per post. You always find a way to bring out the bright side of things...

I tell the truth, Austin. I don't B.S. And the truth ain't so good for tomorrow's weather. But it does get better.

 

[thetrailboss]

....and since I do such a great job "bringing out the bright side of things" as you say, here goes. This just in:

Special Weather Statement

NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON- SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX- SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE- WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE- CALEDONIA- WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE- WESTERN RUTLAND- WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON- EASTERN RUTLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE... PLATTSBURGH... STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA... LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA... OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM... GOUVERNEUR... ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS... NEWPORT... ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON... JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY... MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES... BRADFORD...RANDOLPH... RUTLAND... SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION... ENOSBURG FALLS... RICHFORD... UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD... KILLINGTON 337 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

...STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY WITH A VARIETY OF WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK BY FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THUS...A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING MUCH OF FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THAT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BY LATE TONIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF FRIDAY. DUE TO RECENT MILD TEMPERATURES...ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES...POWERLINES...AND BRIDGES. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THERE APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD THAT A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS MAY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO EXPERIENCE STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE PORTIONS OF ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK... EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT.

PERSONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT...SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION AND PREPARE FOR THIS UPCOMING WEATHER EVENT.

 

[klrskiah]

SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND STALL OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING SNOW TO FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND MAINLY RAIN
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THRU THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER IN THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME FRIDAY AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE MAINE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE MARITIMES SATURDAY. THIS LOW MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO A WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO THE FAR NORTH. THE NAM IS BRING THE
LOW CENTER FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS...HOWEVER GIVEN THE EXPECTED
POSITION OF THE FRONT LATER TOMORROW THE SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK OF THE GFS IS PREFERRED. THERE IS STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS REGARDING HOW FAST THE TRANSFER OF ENERGY WILL TAKE PLACE
BETWEEN THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY LOW. HAVE GENERATED QPF
AMOUNTS WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN INITIALIZED WITH THE SNOW RATIO TOOL THEN SMOOTHED.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INITIALIZED WITH A MAV/MET COMBINATION THEN
MANUALLY MODIFIED WITH COLD AIR DRAINAGE IN MIND IN THE NORTHEAST
FLOW DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN INITIALIZED WITH A
MAV/MET COMBINATION BUT MANUALLY MODIFIED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

This is for the areas just north of Sugarloaf, sounds like a slightly more southern track could bring much more "frozen precip"

 

[JD]

"several inches possible over higher terrain"
from NOAA for friday eve.

 

[thetrailboss]

"several inches possible over higher terrain"
from NOAA for friday eve.

I like that one! :beer:

 

[Greg]

December 1 and we have a tornado warning. :-o