The Official 12/1-12/2 Storm Discussion Thread

[ctenidae]

today, but uh, one year ago :smash:

Scared ya huh???

A picture from today for comparison would be scarier.

 

[billski]

A picture from today for comparison would be scarier.

 

[from_the_NEK]

Ahhhhhhhh!!!
uke: uke: uke: :blink: :blink: :blink:

 

[ajl50]

you can ski that.
I'm glad that "webcam" thread has been buried. I can't handle the horror.
Bump it back up when it's cold enough to produce frost

 

[SnowRider]

You jinxed it...you have to at least change the title to "maybe snow" or sumtin

 

[ajl50]

me?

 

[TwinTips21]

The GFS is confusing me!

 

[Zand]

This afternoon's Burlington NWS discussion:

FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY FOLLOWED GFS/ECMWF SOLN WHICH SUGGESTS THE SFC
LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL REACH THE MOHAWK
VLY OF NY BY 00Z SATURDAY...AND THEN TRACK TO NEAR PORTLAND ME BY
06Z SATURDAY. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT IF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR IS
NEAR FREEZING...THAT LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...AHEAD OF THE MAIN QG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM CYCLONE. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG
WAA SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE FA...POSSIBLY HVY AT
TIMES WITH QPF 1-1.5". THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WILL THEN
DETERMINE THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF SNOW THAT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT
THE TAIL END OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. CERTAINLY...STRENGTH OF UPWARD MOTION SUGGESTS DYNAMIC
COOLING AND LATENT PROCESSES COULD AID IN TRANSITION FROM R+ TO S+
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE TIME FRAME FRIDAY ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VLY AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. DURING FRIDAY EVENING...A CHANGE TO
SNOW IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE FOR A FEW HRS BEFORE TAPERING TO A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS LATE. IT/S STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT A PERIOD OF HVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
PRECIP ENDS FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WILL UPDATE THE SPECIAL WX
STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS WINTER WX POTENTIAL.

 

[TwinTips21]

AJL 50, did you study meteorology? Anyway what are the latest runs of the gfs and nam looking like in your perception?

 

[klrskiah]

So basically the storm has moved further west again which = more r@#$. :angry:
It probably will change again anyway, but either way at least it will get cold.

 

[klrskiah]

AJL 50, did you study meteorology? Anyway what are the latest runs of the gfs and nam looking like in your perception?

When looking at GFS or NAM what number is the most current model??

it seems like the GFS brings the low up along the Maine coast, but the NAM has a wierd split low thing with one up over quebec. which do you think is more likely?

 

[andyzee]

Tonight
Nov 29
Cloudy N/A/42° 10%

High not valid after 2pm
Thu
Nov 30
Few Showers 59°/47° 30%

59°F
Fri
Dec 1
Rain 47°/31° 80%

47°F
Sat
Dec 2
Few Snow Showers / Wind 34°/24° 30%

34°F
Sun
Dec 3
Few Snow Showers 36°/25° 30%

36°F
Mon
Dec 4
Snow Shower 34°/17° 40%

34°F
Tue
Dec 5
Partly Cloudy 28°/20° 10%

28°F
Wed
Dec 6
Few Snow Showers 36°/20° 30%

36°F
Thu
Dec 7
Few Snow Showers 35°/21° 30%

35°F
Fri
Dec 8
Rain / Snow 32°/20° 60%

32°F

 

[ajl50]

"AJL 50, did you study meteorology? Anyway what are the latest runs of the gfs and nam looking like in your perception?"
Nope - I just read about it and follow it closely because I'm bored at law school and love skiing.
The GFS and the NAM and many other forecast models can be found here:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
the GFS and the NAM come out 4 times a day. People argue over which runs are the most accurate. I don't have an opinion one way or the other because of how fast weather changes.
Also - kill time reading all the climate prediction center stuff on the NAO and the PNA. These weather patterns give us storms and cold respectively.
Right now- I throw all the forecasts out for the north country because the weather computers never do a good job there. My guy tells me the following for the Kmart to Whiteface area- rain heavy before the front comes through, then a change over, some accumulation - 4 inches would be the best- and then a super hard freeze.

 

[bassist286]

i think at this point, we'd be apreachiative of anything, including just come cold weather in general.

 

[ajl50]

Well cold weather is coming for the north country.

 

[wintersyndrome]

Model Maps From wunderground

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=NAM&domain=US

My guy tells me the following for the Kmart to Whiteface area- rain heavy before the front comes through, then a change over, some accumulation - 4 inches would be the best- and then a super hard freeze.

sounds like typical NE winter weather-gotta love it

 

[thebigo]

any of you weather guys have an opinion as to which northeast areas will see the least r#in?

specifically im deciding between killington and sugarloaf for saturday.

 

[Greg]

any of you weather guys have an opinion as to which northeast areas will see the least r#in?

This is indeed a sad question to be asking for early December. Isn't it supposed to be "which northeast areas will see the most snow?"

 

[thebigo]

This is indeed a sad question to be asking for early December. Isn't it supposed to be "which northeast areas will see the most snow?"

Good point, hadnt thought about it that way but the cold is coming. I just got off the phone with a guy in arkansas and he said the temp dropped 30 degrees in the last three hours.

 

[thetrailboss]

Fairbanks calling for highs in the 50's-60's today, and then thunderstorms tomorrow. :roll: :angry: Typical December weather I guess. :roll: