The Official 12/10 - 12/12 Storm Discussion Thread

[Euler]

12/11 Storm Speculation Thread

So, there's a thread for the 9th and a thread for the 12th, but it looks like the best possibilitry for some action is on Thursday the 11th.

From the NOAA/NWS 4 PM update out of the Albany station:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...SOUTHERN VERMONT...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

POTENTIAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION COULD EXCEED
1 TO 2 INCHES. THIS COULD RESULT IN OVER 7 INCHES OF SNOW...OVER A
HALF INCH OF ICE...OR MORE THAN AN INCH OF SLEET BY THE TIME THE
STORM ENDS FRIDAY MORNING.
...

BASED ON THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE TRACKS OF THE STORM...AND THE COLD
AIR THAT WILL BE ENTRENCHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DURATION OF THE
STORM...HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN. EVEN WITH THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TRACK...THE STORM
IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SO...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A
STRONG STORM WILL FORM AND TRACK SOMEWHERE THROUGH OR JUST
OFFSHORE THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.

AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ALL SNOW EXISTS FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY...THROUGH
THE LAKE GEORGE AND SARATOGA REGIONS TO THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT/B]...

Lots of uncertainty still, but this could be Mt. Snow's first big dump...fingers crossed!

 

[billski]

It's looking like we could get alot of freezing rain in Northern Connecticut which would really suck. I would rather it be all rain.

Someone's gotta be on the line. You just got used to all those lower new england events last year. Head north!

 

[loafer89]

Someone's gotta be on the line. You just got used to all those lower new england events last year. Head north!

It's funny because since I moved up here from Long Island in 2006 it hardly snow's there anymore. It's like it's following me

I will be hading north this weekend, probably to Waterville Valley on saturday and Smugglers Notch on sunday.

 

[Greg]

You just got used to all those lower new england events last year. Head north!

Thanks Captain Obvious. :roll:

But in reality we didn't have any "lower" NE events last year. I can recall two 1 foot snowfalls. Better than the year before which was predominantly slizzards. We haven't had a good 18"+ dump in years. We're do.

This storm track has been all over the place. I think we'll have a better handle on who will be the big winner in terms of snowfall tomorrow. Somebody is going to get it. Better be flexible for Friday.

 

[thebigo]

Early stoke from Matt Noyes

If I'm right on this setup, we have an almost all rain scenario for most of coastal Southern New England (surprise, surprise), a substantial freezing rain scenario for interior Southern and South-Central New England, a substantial sleet event for much of Central New England including Concord, NH, and Portland, ME, and a one to two foot snow event for some of Northern New England, from Central/North Central VT to the Mount Washington Valley to the Maine Mountains.

Remember that those of you who read this blog get my raw thoughts - I wouldn't necessarily go on the air with a map of hard and fast predictions for exact locations of ptype and amounts, because there is still lingering uncertainty with the storm track, and the efficiency of precipitation production, though I expect the latter to be high with differential temperature advection underway - warm advection aloft and cold advection below - and the cold side of the mid-level front should form the necessary deformation band on the cold side of its location to verify the heavy snow band in the North.

 

[deadheadskier]

I hope that's true, I'm leaning towards Sugarloaf for Sunday, just a question of whether I want to motivate 3.5 hours for a day trip. I got a ticket to burn, so it's pretty likely

 

[loafer89]

Thanks Captain Obvious. :roll:

But in reality we didn't have any "lower" NE events last year. I can recall two 1 foot snowfalls. Better than the year before which was predominantly slizzards. We haven't had a good 18"+ dump in years. We're do.

This storm track has been all over the place. I think we'll have a better handle on who will be the big winner in terms of snowfall tomorrow. Somebody is going to get it. Better be flexible for Friday.

The latest models bring the storm center slightly more eastward which is good for a 4-8" + snowfall for Northern New England, but could give us a potentially crippling icestorm.

 

[Greg]

I hope that's true, I'm leaning towards Sugarloaf for Sunday, just a question of whether I want to motivate 3.5 hours for a day trip. I got a ticket to burn, so it's pretty likely

3 1/2 hours to Sugarloaf?

 

[Greg]

According to the NWS, this looks like a prolonged event, at least for parts of NNE. I merged a few threads together and upgraded this one to "official". :razz:

 

[billski]

powderfreak

On SkiVTL Powderfreak Scott provided some guidance:

"This should certainly be monitored for a high impact winter storm somewhere in the northeast."

 

[Euler]

Here's a good looking snow map from Accuweather:
(Everyone's always hating on Accuweather...any data to back this distrust up, or does everyone just blindly slam Accuweather like they slam certain resorts?)

 

[billski]

sorry, I believe all the data are anecdotal. I'm not going to waste my time quantifying it; I don't work for them nor do I have anything to gain from seeing it corrected. Easier to go to more reliable sources. My generalization is that they super-sensationalize their forecasts.

 

[WJenness]

Here's a good looking snow map from Accuweather:
(Everyone's always hating on Accuweather...any data to back this distrust up, or does everyone just blindly slam Accuweather like they slam certain resorts?)

PLEASE be right.

-w

 

[deadheadskier]

3 1/2 hours to Sugarloaf?

3.5 if I'm hauling ass with no traffic. Yes, I do start to cry when my travel time exceeds 3 hours on a day trip.

 

[Justin10]

Look at that rain/snow line just ripping across west to east. Still a lot of green there as of now, but that line isn't messing around...

 

[JD]

Idael scenario for ski area locals. A dump, and no one can drive here from down south. Yes, this makes me sound like a dick, but when locals have a snow covered Mtn to themselves in a w/e it's a pretty special thing....

Once about 5 years ago we got a big overnighter and it was still dumping in the A.M. I was coming up to harlow hill by the matterhorn and the car 2 up was going SLOW. I knew they wern't gonna make it up the hill so I let them get way ahead. I got a goot jump at the hill and as I closed on them I saw the first car stop and go sideways....I put the pass on as the car behind them did the same thing. The cars behind me stacked up like a log jam. It turned into kind of a car jumble and closed to road for over an hour. First few laps on the quad were really fun with only about 20 people there...
Moral of this story. If you're coming up, come early. And hit harlow hill with a good head of Steam.

 

[tcharron]

God, if ONLY this was snow..

Ok, WHO WAS BAD THIS YEAR, and is getting their coal PREDELIVERED in NCP form!?!?

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

I wonder how the snowpack is holding up in Northern Vermont...rain, wind, warmth and fog..yikes..things are looking good in Warp Daddys neighborhood.

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

Not looking good at Stowe..

http://www.stowe.com/mountain/webcam.php

 

[Greg]

Look at that rain/snow line just ripping across west to east. Still a lot of green there as of now, but that line isn't messing around...

Lots of rain, but a lot of back end snow too. Come on!