The Official 12/10 - 12/12 Storm Discussion Thread

[deadheadskier]

Calling for 6 to 12 in the dacks. If Mother Nature sneezes it could miss us to the east. K and the loaf are going to be the big winners out oif this one. k may get rain but the loaf is going to get dumped on

I will be at Sugarloaf on Sunday. If you are wrong, expect an intraweb ass kicking

 

[andyzee]

I'll report from K

 

[JD]

I'll have a TR from Mansfield woods tomorrow if all goes according to plan...

 

[KingM]

Josh Fox MRG blog update:

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2008/12/by-razor-thin-margin.html

I'll take the short term forecast, but I wish the next two weeks looked better. I'm hoping it turns out more like last year, where the medium term was always doom and gloom that somehow kept getting pushed back for us in the north country.

 

[danny p]

dumping @ K right now:

http://www.killington.com/winter/the_mountain/k1_webcam/index.html

hopefully it stays all snow.........fingers crossed here.

 

[JD]

snowing at my house.

 

[WWF-VT]

NOAA for Warren, VT at 11 AM today

This Afternoon: Snow, mainly after 3pm. High near 28. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Tonight: Snow and sleet, becoming all snow after 1am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Friday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 30. North wind between 3 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Friday Night: A slight chance of snow showers before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 5. North wind between 3 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 17. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 2.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 34.

Looking good for a cold but sunny Saturday

 

[Johnskiismore]

Snowing nicely here, I hope the predictions are right! Sooooo not going to day job tomorrow!

 

[lerops]

Catskills seem to be a question mark. Gore might be an option for those driving North.

 

[campgottagopee]

Here in CNY it's been snowing for an hour--calling for 5-10 by tomorrow A.M.

 

[davidhowland14]

raining here in MA, has been all day.

 

[billski]

My sister called yesterday from Houston, where it was snowing.

61 here and snowing in Houston. WTF?

Yeah, one of my team members reported the same thing. She was so astonished she could not concentrate!

 

[KingM]

Yeah, one of my team members reported the same thing. She was so astonished she could not concentrate!

Hey, I live in a place with 250 inches of snow a year, and I have the same problem when I look out my window and see white stuff falling magically from the sky.

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

37 degrees and raining here..Blue mountain once again shutdown early..at 4PM...the manmade snow will hold up though..

 

[drjeff]

37 degrees and raining here..Blue mountain once again shutdown early..at 4PM...the manmade snow will hold up though..

No PM Blue session for Steeze , sounds like a bar night if you ask me :beer:

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

No PM Blue session for Steeze , sounds like a bar night if you ask me :beer:

No it's a sit in front of the computer night for me..the new owner of Blue is very cheap and closes when it rains..

 

[powderfreak]

DECEMBER 11-12 STORM FORECAST PRIMARILY FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT

Forecast: Snow breaks out later this evening and becomes heavy at times after midnight. Snow will mix with and change to sleet for a time during the early morning hours (4-7am), especially along and SE of a line running from Binghamton, NY to Sherbrooke, QC (includes the Green Mtn spine and possibly BTV). Some freezing rain may even mix in from Rutland Mixed precipitation goes back to all snow as the low passes to our east between 7-10am. Snow continues tomorrow before tapering off during the late afternoon.

Total accumulations for Central and Northern Vermont...widespread 7-14" with those who experience extended mixing seeing the lower value, and those who see all snow reaching the higher value. If for some reason it doesn't sleet north of Rutland, places in Addison and Washington counties could see locally higher amounts.

Discussion:

Precipitation will be slow to move northward, but make no mistake, we are in for a heavy precipitation event here. Basin QPF averages should be greater than 1" across all of Vermont except maybe a portion of far NW Franklin Cnty. Central and eastern Vermont is looking at an average of 1.5"...maybe even some 2" amounts further SE. What type of precipitation won't be fully determined until its actually happening...the thermal profiles are making my head spin.

Looking at the satellite presentation this afternoon (image from 1pm), it was obvious that this is rapidly becoming a major mid-latitude cyclone. And talk about tapping deep tropical and Atlantic moisture...note the southerly inflow stretching to lower Central America as well as the massive on-shore flow along the entire eastern seaboard.
http://tinyurl.com/5lujem

We will have no problem with QPF with this type of inflow over-top a steeply sloped thermal gradient. This baroclinic zone will promote intense frontogenic forcing with bands of heavy precipitation inhabiting the larger shield. If we can stay snow, snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr are likely after midnight tonight.

This is what we are working with right now, and this mod/hvy precipitation will continue to slowly lift northwest this evening...FYI- the Intellicast radar certainly has one of the better resolution p-type schemes out there:
http://tinyurl.com/6sxoto

Snow has been trying to develop from western NY back to Ohio this afternoon under strong divergence in the right-rear quad of the upper level jet, and it is finally starting to moisten the lower levels. Later tonight, the best upper level divergence will swing over the North Country in tandem with the low/mid level forcing...the synoptics are looking good at this point.

P-type? Going to start as snow everywhere but later tonight as the low crosses Long Island into SNE, pesky above freezing layers begin to show up from 900mb to 700mb. The soundings from BTV indicate some minor 0C-1C warm air in the vicinity of 875mb...but to our east we've got a more pronounced warm layer in the soundings indicating we will go to sleet for a time up and down the Green Mtns. The caveat is that heavy precipitation from synoptic factors could mix out the warm layer through cooling caused by melting snowflakes...and we end up with a column that remains barely below freezing.

For the forecast, I've used the H10-H7 284dm thickness contour as the dividing line between snow and sleet as this best maps the current situation. Per the SREF (short-range ensemble forecast), the farthest NW this contour gets is to the Binghamton, NY to Sherbrooke, QC line...and encompasses the Green Mtns for roughly 2-3 hours of the event before getting yanked east.

Snow then continues at a light to moderate clip into Friday afternoon. Winds do not seem to be a huge issue with this storm, though could see some 30-40mph gusts in the higher elevations...but I'm not concerned with wind hold at this time.

Get out there and enjoy it!

-Scott

 

[JD]

I just made this my desktop..
http://backtotheearthgroup.com/scottb/wx/Dec 11/SAT_EUS_WVENH.gif

 

[KingM]

That sounds fantastic. I'm greedy, give us the higher amounts, please.

 

[Zand]

Freezing rain here all day, still 30 degrees and I can't even walk up the driveway to my car at the moment. Unless some drastic warmup and melting occur, no way I'm making it to school tomorrow.