The Official 2/12 - 2/13 Storm Discussion Thread

[noski]

MRV is expecting 8-14" Tuesday into overnight and Weds am. Beautiful day Thursday. Keep your weather eye to Saturday 2/16.

 

[bvibert]

Looks probable so I upgraded the thread to "official" Winter Storm Watch for SoVT:

AWESOME!

 

[ajl50]

this will happen because I'm driving to LP wed night. Everytime I need to drive somewhere to ski the weather gets nasty...

 

[noski]

this will happen because I'm driving to LP wed night. Everytime I need to drive somewhere to ski the weather gets nasty...

You may be ok. It is not forecast to start until after the evening commute tuesday and wrap up mid day Weds. Possible breaks of sun in the afternoon Weds. Heaviest snow Weds morning. Drive safe!

 

[powderfreak]

A 12-hour precipitation event is expected to yield a general 5-9" snowfall across central and northern Vermont with 8-14" possible in the higher terrain along the central Green Mountain spine. I'll be looking for Killington, Sugarbush, and Mad River Glen to verify these higher amounts. The time frame is from tomorrow evening till Wednesday morning. I expect snow to overspread the region tomorrow evening between 7pm and 10pm with snow becoming heavy at times during the overnight hours. Snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour are possible for an extended period in the central Green Mountains with occasional 1"+ rates from I-89 northward. Needless to say, all of this snow will likely fall while the lifts are closed so Wednesday morning should be pretty sweet.

Warm air advection will be the main driver of the snowfall as warmer air between H8 and H7 overrides this arctic airmass currently in place. I'm seeing favorable snow growth for this system so will follow ratios of 12-14:1. Arctic air in the boundary layer should allow for immediate accumulation on all surfaces, too. Good upper level divergence and H7 frontogenesis is maximized across central Vermont back towards the southern Adirondacks. The 4km BTV WFR model is indicating two meso-scale bands possible...one across central Vermont and the other stretching from near Jay Peak to BTV to Oswego, NY. It'll be interesting to see if there is an enhanced area of snowfall removed to the north away from the heaviest precipitation across central/southern VT.

I'll have another update tonight but it this looks like a fun, quick hitting snowfall that'll add another layer of pow. Might want to make plans for Wednesday...

-Scott

 

[noski]

A 12-hour precipitation event is expected to yield a general 5-9" snowfall across central and northern Vermont with 8-14" possible in the higher terrain along the central Green Mountain spine. I'll be looking for Killington, Sugarbush, and Mad River Glen to verify these higher amounts. The time frame is from tomorrow evening till Wednesday morning. I expect snow to overspread the region tomorrow evening between 7pm and 10pm with snow becoming heavy at times during the overnight hours. Snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour are possible for an extended period in the central Green Mountains with occasional 1"+ rates from I-89 northward. Needless to say, all of this snow will likely fall while the lifts are closed so Wednesday morning should be pretty sweet.

Warm air advection will be the main driver of the snowfall as warmer air between H8 and H7 overrides this arctic airmass currently in place. I'm seeing favorable snow growth for this system so will follow ratios of 12-14:1. Arctic air in the boundary layer should allow for immediate accumulation on all surfaces, too. Good upper level divergence and H7 frontogenesis is maximized across central Vermont back towards the southern Adirondacks. The 4km BTV WFR model is indicating two meso-scale bands possible...one across central Vermont and the other stretching from near Jay Peak to BTV to Oswego, NY. It'll be interesting to see if there is an enhanced area of snowfall removed to the north away from the heaviest precipitation across central/southern VT.

I'll have another update tonight but it this looks like a fun, quick hitting snowfall that'll add another layer of pow. Might want to make plans for Wednesday...

-Scott

Yea! What he said!:-D

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

Winter Storm watch for eastern PA..for Snow changing to sleet and then freezing rain...this storm could be a real humdinger...it will be nice to see the ground white again...there were even little flowers blooming across the street from my work in a sunny south facing area...but they're probably dead since it was 5 degrees this morning...maybe some fresh Poe tomorrow night at Blue mountain..Holla

 

[Zand]

GSS is ready to ski some more Edgar Allen Poe.

They're still indecisive on what we're getting here and how much. Sounds like a good 3-6" of snow tomorrow night, then changing to ice for a long while and then maybe ending as rain or snow. Should be a royal mess in this area Wednesday morning. I might put off a Wachusett trip till Thursday if tomorrow night looks bad enough. This should REALLY get me into Berkshire East mode for Presidents Day.

 

[BLESS]

any updates on the jackson, north conway areas?

 

[bigbog]

....

...looks like another nice week ahead for northern New England...8)

 

[billski]

probability of 8" or more (for 2/12/8)

any updates on the jackson, north conway areas?

 

[WJenness]

Going to go out and score some storm skiing tonight...

Wa or Crotched... not sure where yet.

Probably Wa as I have a pass there...

-w

 

[powderfreak]

Latest model guidance indicating a much better chance for mixing as far north as the Canadian border. Precipitation amounts have also increased so we'll likely see a 6-12" snowfall across a large area of central/northern New England with some ice possible on top of that...especially across eastern Vermont, New Hampshire, and western Maine. The only areas that may escape a change over from snow to sleet/freezing rain look to be northern and western New York...including Whiteface in the northern Adirondacks. Elsewhere, there's at least a moderate chance of a change over.

I'm off to make some turns at Stowe...will try to post an update when I get back.

 

[2knees]

Latest model guidance indicating a much better chance for mixing as far north as the Canadian border. Precipitation amounts have also increased so we'll likely see a 6-12" snowfall across a large area of central/northern New England with some ice possible on top of that...especially across eastern Vermont, New Hampshire, and western Maine. The only areas that may escape a change over from snow to sleet/freezing rain look to be northern and western New York...including Whiteface in the northern Adirondacks. Elsewhere, there's at least a moderate chance of a change over.

I'm off to make some turns at Stowe...will try to post an update when I get back.

yikes. hopefully the ice doesnt go on too long and create a nasty crust.

 

[ALLSKIING]

yikes. hopefully the ice doesnt go on too long and create a nasty crust.

If its sleet I bet it will mix in very nice with the snow....

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

It's snowing here in the Lehigh Valley and sticking to the roads..woo hoo..Powder afternoon..too bad I don't have Pontoons

 

[wa-loaf]

Winter Storm Warning

/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0006.080212T2200Z- 080213T2100Z/ WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA- CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA- WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA- EASTERN HAMPDEN MA- SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH- EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD... ORANGE... BARRE...FITCHBURG... FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE... CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST... NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD... MILFORD... WORCESTER...AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE... MANCHESTER... NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH... WEARE 1114 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

THIS WINTER STORM WARNING INCLUDES ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...AS WELL AS WESTERN...CENTRAL AND MUCH OF NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM. THE SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS BETWEEN 7 PM AND 9 PM.

ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS IT WILL QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY...FALLING AT THE RATE OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AND REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO UNDER ONE HALF MILE. ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND TRAVEL WILL BECOME QUITE HAZARDOUS BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

THE SNOW WILL THEN CHANGE TO SLEET AND THEN TO FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM ACROSS MASSACHUSETTS...AND BETWEEN 3 AM AND 6 AM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE FALLING ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE WEDNESDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR...SO UNTREATED ROADWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ICY AND SNOW COVERED.

THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD FINALLY CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MAY STILL BE AROUND FREEZING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER INCH OF GLAZE IS POSSIBLE ON TOP OF THE SNOW BEFORE A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN.

4-8" then ice and heavy rain.:-o
I'm going crank up the snow blower as soon as it starts to change over to try to avoid moving all that rain saturated snow. :roll:

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

The ground is now covered here in Allentown..time to ski ski ski..some fresh Poe..before it changes to ice tonight..

Peace

 

[takeahike46er]

Latest model guidance indicating a much better chance for mixing as far north as the Canadian border. Precipitation amounts have also increased so we'll likely see a 6-12" snowfall across a large area of central/northern New England with some ice possible on top of that...especially across eastern Vermont, New Hampshire, and western Maine. The only areas that may escape a change over from snow to sleet/freezing rain look to be northern and western New York...including Whiteface in the northern Adirondacks. Elsewhere, there's at least a moderate chance of a change over.

Well that seals the deal-- Whiteface it is tomorrow. Nice timing with this snowfall because lift tickets are only $35 when you bring a can of Coke. Fresh snow + cheap tickets FTW.

 

[billski]

Well that seals the deal-- Whiteface it is tomorrow. Nice timing with this snowfall because lift tickets are only $35 when you bring a can of Coke. Fresh snow + cheap tickets FTW.

even better since you don't have to pay $3.95 for a fountain drink! :smash: