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The "Sugarbush Thread"

ducky

Member
Joined
Nov 18, 2017
Messages
140
Points
16
Location
Waitsfield, VT
How is John Hamnond and Sugarbush going to be able to confirm that people are following the guidelines and restrict people that are not? In my condo complex there are families from MA that have been living up there and will remain there for the winter working remotely. They comply but how would you know?
Also, hypothetically, if I chose to go up every weekend and I am isolated at my house in MA, ski from my condo so I am not interacting at the base. Ski with a mask on with my significant other and bring all my own food, How am I not complaint? Common sense would dictate that I am. So very complicated.

Not sure quarantining at home in your state's red or yellow county qualifies as being compliant. Perhaps in theory you can think so, but not legally.

I think condo associations (via airbnb) are not able to or care to police who rents or stays whereas Sugarbush, being licensed by the state, is held to a much higher standard and has an obligation to the health of their guests, employees, indeed the whole local population. Ethically, does a major local employer wants to take that risk for profit? Not a resort in the country wants to be THE place where the inevitable outbreak happens. Our local middle school, CBMS, had two cases last week and is now closed. It has folks on edge around here.
 

ducky

Member
Joined
Nov 18, 2017
Messages
140
Points
16
Location
Waitsfield, VT
What I dont understand is the algorithm vt is using to determine the active cases per million. The threshold for quarantine is 400/million. my county in NY, westchester, has been consistently for months in the 20's per 100k for 7 day period and yet VT has the active cases above 800/million. The population of westchester is just shy of 1m. I dont get it.

If you write or call the VT ACCD or DoH you will get an answer to their sources quite quickly. If you have the VPR app on your phone, you can listen to the weekly briefings on Tuesday and Friday at 11:00. One problem is the 400/100k is updated every Friday which means it is often too late for weekend travel.

Howie, just found the algorithm: https://dfr.vermont.gov/sites/finreg/files/doc_library/dfr-travel-map-methodology-071620.pdf
 

mister moose

Member
Joined
Oct 11, 2007
Messages
964
Points
18
I hear that the vaccine is coming in November. If I get the vaccine am I good to go? This is going to be way more complicated then everyone thinks.
The big man say vaccine is right around the corner, problem fix, it is that easy.
There's some talking past each other out there. The White House says the vaccine will be available this fall. I interpret that to mean the first distributed doses that will go to medical workers, military. Initial production will be less at first than after it's ramped up. So availability to the general public will be quite a bit later, which is what the other story in the news is. Neither one acknowledges the other. Read and assimilate both. And of course it might not be ready this fall either.

What I dont understand is the algorithm vt is using to determine the active cases per million. The threshold for quarantine is 400/million. my county in NY, westchester, has been consistently for months in the 20's per 100k for 7 day period and yet VT has the active cases above 800/million. The population of westchester is just shy of 1m. I dont get it.
There was an interesting discussion on this on Kzone. Briefly, VT uses a 30 day look back algorithm to calculate the theoretical number of cases in each county today, using John Hopkins data. It is not based on today's testing. Other states, like mine, get their numbers from recent testing. The numbers are considerably different. Population size doesn't figure in, it's the rate.
 

cdskier

Active member
Joined
Mar 26, 2015
Messages
3,736
Points
38
Location
NJ
Not sure quarantining at home in your state's red or yellow county qualifies as being compliant. Perhaps in theory you can think so, but not legally.

It absolutely does count. This is straight from VT's ACCD website:
Residents of other states who live in a quarantine county or are from any other state outside of the Northeast (including New England; New York; Pennsylvania; Ohio; New Jersey; Delaware; Maryland; Washington, D.C.; Virginia; and West Virginia), must follow quarantine guidelines:

Travelers arriving to Vermont in a personal vehicle, may complete either a 14-day quarantine or a 7-day quarantine followed by a negative test in their home state and enter Vermont without further quarantine restrictions.
 

HowieT2

Active member
Joined
Sep 22, 2009
Messages
1,250
Points
38
If you write or call the VT ACCD or DoH you will get an answer to their sources quite quickly. If you have the VPR app on your phone, you can listen to the weekly briefings on Tuesday and Friday at 11:00. One problem is the 400/100k is updated every Friday which means it is often too late for weekend travel.

Howie, just found the algorithm: https://dfr.vermont.gov/sites/finreg/files/doc_library/dfr-travel-map-methodology-071620.pdf

my head just exploded reading that. just seems to me the number should be substantially lower based on the data.
 

Hawk

Active member
Joined
Nov 22, 2016
Messages
1,033
Points
38
Location
Mad River Valley / MA
We visited up there a while back to clean out our condo for a renovation that is happening. I have to say just driving around , there are not a lot of people wearing masks and social distancing. If there is an out break it will be because the locals refuse to follow the guidelines themselves.
 

HowieT2

Active member
Joined
Sep 22, 2009
Messages
1,250
Points
38
There's some talking past each other out there. The White House says the vaccine will be available this fall. I interpret that to mean the first distributed doses that will go to medical workers, military. Initial production will be less at first than after it's ramped up. So availability to the general public will be quite a bit later, which is what the other story in the news is. Neither one acknowledges the other. Read and assimilate both. And of course it might not be ready this fall either.


There was an interesting discussion on this on Kzone. Briefly, VT uses a 30 day look back algorithm to calculate the theoretical number of cases in each county today, using John Hopkins data. It is not based on today's testing. Other states, like mine, get their numbers from recent testing. The numbers are considerably different. Population size doesn't figure in, it's the rate.

I get the look back but like I said, I've been monitoring the data and for months, the number of cases have been in the 20's per 100k for 7 day period. That's in the 200's per million over 7 days. how then does the algorithm get to 800+ per million active cases.
 

HowieT2

Active member
Joined
Sep 22, 2009
Messages
1,250
Points
38
There's some talking past each other out there. The White House says the vaccine will be available this fall. I interpret that to mean the first distributed doses that will go to medical workers, military. Initial production will be less at first than after it's ramped up. So availability to the general public will be quite a bit later, which is what the other story in the news is. Neither one acknowledges the other. Read and assimilate both. And of course it might not be ready this fall either.


There was an interesting discussion on this on Kzone. Briefly, VT uses a 30 day look back algorithm to calculate the theoretical number of cases in each county today, using John Hopkins data. It is not based on today's testing. Other states, like mine, get their numbers from recent testing. The numbers are considerably different. Population size doesn't figure in, it's the rate.


you guys dont actually believe there's going to be a vaccine distributed and administered widely enough to make any difference before next spring??? I mean, really, you are being facetious, no?
 

ducky

Member
Joined
Nov 18, 2017
Messages
140
Points
16
Location
Waitsfield, VT
We visited up there a while back to clean out our condo for a renovation that is happening. I have to say just driving around , there are not a lot of people wearing masks and social distancing. If there is an out break it will be because the locals refuse to follow the guidelines themselves.

It's not the locals who are not wearing masks.
 

mister moose

Member
Joined
Oct 11, 2007
Messages
964
Points
18
I get the look back but like I said, I've been monitoring the data and for months, the number of cases have been in the 20's per 100k for 7 day period. That's in the 200's per million over 7 days. how then does the algorithm get to 800+ per million active cases.
Just a guess, but if your county for all 30 days has been less than VT's current estimate of your county's rate, then that would imply that VT's transmission rate in the model is faulty. Or another possibility is your county is talented relative to the average county at reducing transmission rates. VT is much more model based, others are more current testing based.

you guys dont actually believe there's going to be a vaccine distributed and administered widely enough to make any difference before next spring??? I mean, really, you are being facetious, no?
To quote Will Rogers, all I know is what I read in the papers. Who knows what will actually happen when.
 

cdskier

Active member
Joined
Mar 26, 2015
Messages
3,736
Points
38
Location
NJ
I get the look back but like I said, I've been monitoring the data and for months, the number of cases have been in the 20's per 100k for 7 day period. That's in the 200's per million over 7 days. how then does the algorithm get to 800+ per million active cases.

Vermont's algorithm to estimate the number of active cases is rather bizarre and definitely seems to be overestimating the number of actual cases by a decent amount. If I'm reading it correctly, they are using historical data of reported infections to basically attempt to predict how many other people they may have infected to figure out how many cases there currently should be? That's just strange...

Also, the whole thing has very little relevance to an individual's actual risk anyway. If person A living in a red county rarely leaves their house and practices proper social distancing, that person has a "low risk". Meanwhile person B could be living in a green county and leave their house non-stop and never social distance and never wear a mask. I trust person A's risk level more than I trust person B's. Bottom line is it should be more about common sense instead of some bizarre overly conservative algorithm. If people follow social distancing rules and are minimizing their risk at home, then they should be welcomed (as long as they agree to continue to follow the guidelines).
 

HowieT2

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Sep 22, 2009
Messages
1,250
Points
38
Just a guess, but if your county for all 30 days has been less than VT's current estimate of your county's rate, then that would imply that VT's transmission rate in the model is faulty. Or another possibility is your county is talented relative to the average county at reducing transmission rates. VT is much more model based, others are more current testing based.


To quote Will Rogers, all I know is what I read in the papers. Who knows what will actually happen when.

I don't know what papers you're reading, but there isn't anyone saying there will be a vaccine widely distributed to the population before next spring at the earliest. Even the idiot who said this was all going to go away isnt saying that.
 

Blurski

New member
Joined
Sep 17, 2020
Messages
13
Points
1
you guys dont actually believe there's going to be a vaccine distributed and administered widely enough to make any difference before next spring??? I mean, really, you are being facetious, no?

Not Me, just being facetious.
 

HowieT2

Active member
Joined
Sep 22, 2009
Messages
1,250
Points
38
Vermont's algorithm to estimate the number of active cases is rather bizarre and definitely seems to be overestimating the number of actual cases by a decent amount. If I'm reading it correctly, they are using historical data of reported infections to basically attempt to predict how many other people they may have infected to figure out how many cases there currently should be? That's just strange...

Also, the whole thing has very little relevance to an individual's actual risk anyway. If person A living in a red county rarely leaves their house and practices proper social distancing, that person has a "low risk". Meanwhile person B could be living in a green county and leave their house non-stop and never social distance and never wear a mask. I trust person A's risk level more than I trust person B's. Bottom line is it should be more about common sense instead of some bizarre overly conservative algorithm. If people follow social distancing rules and are minimizing their risk at home, then they should be welcomed (as long as they agree to continue to follow the guidelines).


That's what I'm talking about. I get that the state wants people from areas where there is a high level of infection, to quarantine. And there are areas where that is the case. But not in NY/New England since june really.
 

Blurski

New member
Joined
Sep 17, 2020
Messages
13
Points
1
The resorts can survive for one season at a big loss, some local businesses not so. It will take deep pockets to make it, but if this goes off the rails there will be no revenue coming in, ever try to run a business with zero cash flow! Survive so you can and fight for next year.
 

mister moose

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Joined
Oct 11, 2007
Messages
964
Points
18
I don't know what papers you're reading, but there isn't anyone saying there will be a vaccine widely distributed to the population before next spring at the earliest. Even the idiot who said this was all going to go away isnt saying that.
I'd say different papers than you. It's been out for a while. Here's an updated article, first google hit.

Biotech firm Moderna expects to know by November whether its coronavirus vaccine is effective at warding off the deadly disease, CEO Stephane Bancel said Thursday.

Massachusetts-based Moderna says it has enrolled 25,296 people in the late-stage clinical trial of its COVID-19 vaccine that kicked off in July, one of three such studies currently underway in the US.

The company will most likely have results from the trial indicating whether the shot works in November, Bancel said. He added that it’s possible but “unlikely” that the results could arrive in October, when fellow drugmaker Pfizer expects to know whether its own vaccine works.

https://nypost.com/2020/09/17/moderna-expects-covid-19-vaccine-trial-results-by-november-ceo/
 

cdskier

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Joined
Mar 26, 2015
Messages
3,736
Points
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Location
NJ
you guys dont actually believe there's going to be a vaccine distributed and administered widely enough to make any difference before next spring??? I mean, really, you are being facetious, no?

I agree. I see little chance of it happening for a variety of reasons.

A) High risk and essential workers will be prioritized.
B) Needing two doses 30 days apart is a distinct possibility (which further makes this a logistical nightmare as you just effectively doubled the number of vaccinations that need to happen AND need to carefully plan/time them)
C) Some people (perhaps even many people) will be reluctant to get the vaccine when it first comes out
D) Even with ramping up production before the vaccines are approved it will still take months to get the amount of vaccines produced that you truly need
E) Combine point B with the fact that it takes another couple weeks for your body's immune response to get you to actually be immune and you now have at least a 6 week window after you even get the first dose before you're actually "safe". So even if you could somehow get the vaccine in late Q4, you still wouldn't be immune until early Q1. And there's simply no way every skier could get to the front of the line.
 

cdskier

Active member
Joined
Mar 26, 2015
Messages
3,736
Points
38
Location
NJ
I'd say different papers than you. It's been out for a while. Here's an updated article, first google hit.

Biotech firm Moderna expects to know by November whether its coronavirus vaccine is effective at warding off the deadly disease, CEO Stephane Bancel said Thursday.

Massachusetts-based Moderna says it has enrolled 25,296 people in the late-stage clinical trial of its COVID-19 vaccine that kicked off in July, one of three such studies currently underway in the US.

The company will most likely have results from the trial indicating whether the shot works in November, Bancel said. He added that it’s possible but “unlikely” that the results could arrive in October, when fellow drugmaker Pfizer expects to know whether its own vaccine works.

https://nypost.com/2020/09/17/moderna-expects-covid-19-vaccine-trial-results-by-november-ceo/

All that says is that they expect to have the results of their latest clinical trials by November. It doesn't say anything about the vaccine actually being approved and available by November. There's a big difference between "ready" and "available".
 

Blurski

New member
Joined
Sep 17, 2020
Messages
13
Points
1
But if you are in VT to ski on Saturday & Sunday and go back home, you are back in VT in 5 days. How do squeeze 14 days into 5. Or are you thinking, 1 pre 14 day quarantine sets you up for the entire season and basically never leave your house. Not thinking that is what they had in mind.
 
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