The "Sugarbush Thread"

[mister moose]

All that says is that they expect to have the results of their latest clinical trials by November. It doesn't say anything about the vaccine actually being approved and available by November. There's a big difference between "ready" and "available".

Yes, and available to who is also a factor. That post was in furtherance of a previous post that illustrated how folks are talking past each other. Sorta like now.

There's some talking past each other out there. The White House says the vaccine will be *available this fall. I interpret that to mean the first distributed doses that will go to medical workers, military. Initial production will be less at first than after it's ramped up. So availability to the general public will be quite a bit later, which is what the other story in the news is. Neither one acknowledges the other. Read and assimilate both. And of course it might not be ready this fall either.

*Available, in the pipeline, not approved yet for public distribution. Not as in at your local CVS for free.

 

[skiur]

It's not the locals who are not wearing masks.

I find that very hard to believe. In reality, it is both locals and out of towner's walking around with and without masks.

 

[ducky]

I find that very hard to believe. In reality, it is both locals and out of towner's walking around with and without masks.

Fair enough and definitely politics are involved. It is now pretty rare to see someone in a public area without a mask. It is prohibited in all businesses by state mandate. I live and work in the valley and that's what I have seen mostly the last 2-3 months.

We have seen a fair number of visitors at our business, perhaps 75% of usual, all prescreened by text for appointment. A common line I hear is, "we've been living here since March 14th and never went home", or "we've just moved here from...(SF, NY, Boston)". Real estate is booming with some homes sold sight-unseen.

 

[p_levert]

I agree. I'd also say that if anyone thinks the ski areas (and businesses in the surrounding communities) could legitimately survive in the winter with "locals only", they're very much mistaken. We know a lot more now than we did when this first started about what works best to reduce any risks. VT just seems extremely slow to react to this information and best practices (just look how long it took them until they finally mandated masks statewide).

I certainly don't endorse VT's incredibly conservative approach to Covid. OTOH, should the nightmare come true, where only Vermonters get to ski, some ski areas will do reasonably well. If you're close to Burlington and market to locals, things would not be so bad. So Bolton and Smuggs would be in the best shape. MRG has a lot of local skiers and a lot of support from their members. Stowe might do alright. OTOH, it would be a real disaster for the southern VT resorts.

 

[Newpylong]

I'd say different papers than you. It's been out for a while. Here's an updated article, first google hit.

Biotech firm Moderna expects to know by November whether its coronavirus vaccine is effective at warding off the deadly disease, CEO Stephane Bancel said Thursday.

Massachusetts-based Moderna says it has enrolled 25,296 people in the late-stage clinical trial of its COVID-19 vaccine that kicked off in July, one of three such studies currently underway in the US.

The company will most likely have results from the trial indicating whether the shot works in November, Bancel said. He added that it’s possible but “unlikely” that the results could arrive in October, when fellow drugmaker Pfizer expects to know whether its own vaccine works.

https://nypost.com/2020/09/17/moderna-expects-covid-19-vaccine-trial-results-by-november-ceo/

This is regarding late stage trials for one of three companies performing them in the US. It has nothing to do with wide scale availability of an approved vaccine. IF the late trials are successful (and let's hope they are), healthcare workers and other high risk demographics are going to get the limited initial doses (as they well should). The CDC said as much today as part of their rollout plan. You're not going to be able to go to CVS or your PCP anytime before spring.

 

[mister moose]

This is regarding late stage trials for one of three companies performing them in the US. It has nothing to do with wide scale availability of an approved vaccine. IF the late trials are successful (and let's hope they are), healthcare workers and other high risk demographics are going to get the limited initial doses (as they well should). The CDC said as much today as part of their rollout plan. You're not going to be able to go to CVS or your PCP anytime before spring.

There's some talking past each other out there.

Yes, and available to who is also a factor. That post was in furtherance of a previous post that illustrated how folks are talking past each other. Sorta like now.

*Available, in the pipeline, not approved yet for public distribution. Not as in at your local CVS for free.

Thanks for helping to further illustrate my point.

 

[HowieT2]

All that says is that they expect to have the results of their latest clinical trials by November. It doesn't say anything about the vaccine actually being approved and available by November. There's a big difference between "ready" and "available".

This. Not only won’t they know the efficacy results before November at the earliest for the leading candidates, they still have to verify safety before any vaccine can even begin to be distributed. And this isn’t a movie. In the real world, distribution and inoculation of 200 million people Or so takes some time.

 

[machski]

This. Not only won’t they know the efficacy results before November at the earliest for the leading candidates, they still have to verify safety before any vaccine can even begin to be distributed. And this isn’t a movie. In the real world, distribution and inoculation of 200 million people Or so takes some time.

Not really. You all have missed the fact that EVERY pharma company in trials with a Vaccine have already started and ramped up production NOW. Is this a corporate risk as their Vaccine hasn't finished trials and been approved? You bet! But they all agree that this particular event mandated they all take on that risk so that if/when a Vaccine proves successful there would be very little lapse time between the approval and broad scale distribution. The amount of available doses are beyond the amount just for essential medical workers. And also recall, the US government has already contract purchased 100's of millions of doses for the US.

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[cdskier]

Not really. You all have missed the fact that EVERY pharma company in trials with a Vaccine have already started and ramped up production NOW. Is this a corporate risk as their Vaccine hasn't finished trials and been approved? You bet! But they all agree that this particular event mandated they all take on that risk so that if/when a Vaccine proves successful there would be very little lapse time between the approval and broad scale distribution. The amount of available doses are beyond the amount just for essential medical workers. And also recall, the US government has already contract purchased 100's of millions of doses for the US.

No. I certainly haven't missed the fact that they already ramped up production. But you don't create millions of doses of a vaccine overnight. To put it in perspective, it takes one of the leading flu vaccine producers about 6 months to make 200 million doses. Every vaccine is different and may have different timelines, but it will still take many months to get the amount of vaccines produced for COVID that would be needed (especially if you need 2 doses which doubles the number of vaccines that need to be produced).

The flu vaccine is the largest produced vaccine out there on a yearly basis. And yet with the flu vaccine you have a lot of people that don't get it (thus reducing the number of vaccines that need to be produced) as well as you get to focus on production for only one hemisphere at a time. With covid it is a global issue where everyone wants/needs the vaccine at the same time. Just because the US government contracted for 100s of millions of doses doesn't mean they get them all on day 1. Many other countries have done the same thing. Vaccine production will be shared with the world. The US isn't going to simply get ours before everyone else.

 

[jdr14]

Winter operations plan is up on the website now:
https://www.sugarbush.com/plan/mountain-operations-protocol/

Of note:
Different groups of guests will not be forced to sit together on lift
No group lessons or seasonal programs

 

[machski]

No. I certainly haven't missed the fact that they already ramped up production. But you don't create millions of doses of a vaccine overnight. To put it in perspective, it takes one of the leading flu vaccine producers about 6 months to make 200 million doses. Every vaccine is different and may have different timelines, but it will still take many months to get the amount of vaccines produced for COVID that would be needed (especially if you need 2 doses which doubles the number of vaccines that need to be produced).

The flu vaccine is the largest produced vaccine out there on a yearly basis. And yet with the flu vaccine you have a lot of people that don't get it (thus reducing the number of vaccines that need to be produced) as well as you get to focus on production for only one hemisphere at a time. With covid it is a global issue where everyone wants/needs the vaccine at the same time. Just because the US government contracted for 100s of millions of doses doesn't mean they get them all on day 1. Many other countries have done the same thing. Vaccine production will be shared with the world. The US isn't going to simply get ours before everyone else.

That's why most pharma manufacturers have been manufacturing their vaccine for several months now (basically as soon as they had locked in their formulations). Granted they might have to destroy them if it doesn't pan out, but just like the development timeline has been drastically shrunk with new tech, I think distribution will blow away previous expectations.

You cannot really compare this Vaccine to the annual Flu. Flu vaccines have to wait for the experts to determine the 3 or 4 most likely dominant strains for the upcoming season BEFORE they can formulate and begin production. With Covid, they are using specific m-RNA to target a common part of the virus that is present in the limited number of partial strains out there now. The two vaccine types are common only in they are vaccines, kind of like an apple and an orange are common only in they are both fruits.

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[cdskier]

That's why most pharma manufacturers have been manufacturing their vaccine for several months now (basically as soon as they had locked in their formulations). Granted they might have to destroy them if it doesn't pan out, but just like the development timeline has been drastically shrunk with new tech, I think distribution will blow away previous expectations.

You cannot really compare this Vaccine to the annual Flu. Flu vaccines have to wait for the experts to determine the 3 or 4 most likely dominant strains for the upcoming season BEFORE they can formulate and begin production. With Covid, they are using specific m-RNA to target a common part of the virus that is present in the limited number of partial strains out there now. The two vaccine types are common only in they are vaccines, kind of like an apple and an orange are common only in they are both fruits.

The 6 month window I gave was from the point AFTER the strains are identified. And yes I acknowledged different types of vaccines have different timelines. That doesn't change the fact that you don't manufacture hundreds of millions of doses overnight no matter what technology you're using.

Since you brought up m-RNA, let's focus on Moderna's capabilities and production targets as they have one of the leading covid candidates using that technology. Moderna has stated their goal is to be able to ramp up to get to a point of being able to produce at least 500M doses in 2021 (ideally they want to hit 1B). IF they managed to hit 1B, that still only is enough to vaccinate 500M people (globally). So 6% of the world population. That's nothing. Even if the US somehow gets their 100M doses first from Moderna, that still only cover 50M people (about 15% of the US population)

And for this year, they expect to be able to hit a whopping 20M doses produced by year end.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/18/mod...doses-of-coronavirus-vaccine-by-2020-end.html

I really don't think some of you have any idea what is truly involved in producing vaccines (and let's not even get into the distribution challenges...)

 

[dlague]

I guess it works if you and whoever you live with never leave your house in MA for any reason. Seems like a tall order not interact with anyone for 5 months, but skiing is a very powerful drug and can make people do really crazing things!

You better start to stock pile the gasoline now in both places.

Mathematically imposable to meet the 7 day quarantining + test or 14 day quarantining required from out of state when you come & go every week.

The big man say vaccine is right around the corner, problem fix, it is that easy.

Were we all not quarantine when stay at home orders came out? Yet we were still allowed to get gas and groceries and take out!


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[dlague]

I guess it works if you and whoever you live with never leave your house in MA for any reason. Seems like a tall order not interact with anyone for 5 months, but skiing is a very powerful drug and can make people do really crazing things!

You better start to stock pile the gasoline now in both places.

Mathematically imposable to meet the 7 day quarantining + test or 14 day quarantining required from out of state when you come & go every week.

The big man say vaccine is right around the corner, problem fix, it is that easy.

And who gets it first? Those in most dire situations.


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[Los]

Winter operations plan is up on the website now:
https://www.sugarbush.com/plan/mountain-operations-protocol/

Of note:
Different groups of guests will not be forced to sit together on lift
No group lessons or seasonal programs

Where are you seeing no seasonal programs?

 

[cdskier]

Where are you seeing no seasonal programs?

https://www.sugarbush.com/plan/winter-operations/

Lessons

Changes and offerings for the Ski & Ride School will be announced soon, but we have made the difficult decision to not offer any group lessons or seasonal programs this season. Although we know how disappointing this will be to many of our guests, there is just not a great way to limit interaction between participants in these groups, many of whom will be from different households or bubbles. Private lessons will still be offered, and we are continuing to work on additional offerings as we plan through the fall.

 

[JimG.]

Summarizing last 5 pages:

Don't discuss Killington in the Sugarbush thread. Then 5 pages of COVID discussion.

You guys make my head hurt.

 

[WWF-VT]

Summarizing last 5 pages:

Don't discuss Killington in the Sugarbush thread. Then 5 pages of COVID discussion.

You guys make my head hurt.

Me too

 

[1dog]

Don't see anything regarding group lessons or seasonal programs on this link?

 

[cdskier]

Don't see anything regarding group lessons or seasonal programs on this link?

On this one it is there under the section labeled "Lessons". Also mentioned in the e-mail from John Hammond today (which is mostly a repeat of the info in the following link).

https://www.sugarbush.com/plan/winter-operations/