The "Sugarbush Thread"

[Hawk]

I saw that but figured it was gong to be a few inches. Maybe a long duation event? I will be up on Thursday night. Hopefully it is something good.

 

[cdskier]

def not meant to be temperatures. whatever model is feeding opensnow's API is just calling friday big and cold enough but that's not even close to verifiable yet. the gfs shows it tho.

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The GFS taken at face value shows about 12" from that for the central VT area. The Canadian shows 2 feet + in Central/Northern VT. The Euro also shows about 12" or so for Central/Northern VT.

Opensnow seems to be higher than all of these models though...so not sure what they're using.

At any rate, too early to tell any details. Although travel may be a bit challenging potentially starting as early as Wednesday night through later Friday as this front moves through.

 

[Hawk]

At this point I will take anything. I do like the looks of the jet stream stayting in the area with small waves forming over the next 10 days.

 

[Slidebrook87]

Just off the basic Weather Channel forecast it looks like 1-3" on Thursday, 5-8" on Thursday night, and 5-8" on Friday. Even at the low end this could be a foot. Certainly something to keep an eye on.

 

[djd66]

SCWB is going very conservative on his most recent post https://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/ He actually talks about ra*& and then switching over to snow with 4-10" total. I'm thinking he wants to back off the Dream Casting he did on the last storm. Not one single flake fell on the MRV this past storm - wtf?

I am getting pretty frustrated with the lack of snow this year. Natural snow trails are really beat to shit. Even if you don't care about equipment, ... its just not fun to ski on rocks and dirt all season long. The brutally cold weather does not help either - especially if you are not skiing woods or moguls

Not sure where that forecast that Krusty just posted came from - I will take it!

 

[KustyTheKlown]

Not sure where that forecast that Krusty just posted came from - I will take it!

it came from here - https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/newengland

and the automation feeding that interface has already dialed back a little. it changes in real time more or less. its not a trusted source. the narrative reports are what i use that site for, not the numbers 5 days out.

 

[pinion]

We just need something. A straight 7 inches will make everything better this weekend.

... that's what my wife tells me...

 

[Hawk]

djd66 and I are aligned in our thinking. That's pretty unusual and It might be a first. ;-) We just need snow plain and simple.

 

[cdskier]

I am getting pretty frustrated with the lack of snow this year. Natural snow trails are really beat to shit. Even if you don't care about equipment, ... its just not fun to ski on rocks and dirt all season long. The brutally cold weather does not help either - especially if you are not skiing woods or moguls

Agreed 100%. I'm definitely getting extremely frustrated as well. There's a lot of trails I have no desire to touch right now. These also have been some of the most consistently cold weekends I can remember a stretch of in a while. Seems like every weekend lately we've been dealing with temps either side of 0. Only good side is those cold temps help keep some people away a bit.

 

[djd66]

djd66 and I are aligned in our thinking. That's pretty unusual and It might be a first. ;-) We just need snow plain and simple.

30" and we can all have a big group hug!

 

[tumbler]

I stopped reading the single chair weather a few years ago because the forecasts were rarely accurate and more wish casting as someone put it well earlier.

 

[Los]

Just off the basic Weather Channel forecast it looks like 1-3" on Thursday, 5-8" on Thursday night, and 5-8" on Friday. Even at the low end this could be a foot. Certainly something to keep an eye on.

Weather.com constantly overestimates snow totals by a wide margin. But I keep tabs just for fun. As of this moment they’ve upped their forecast to 14-23 inches. I won’t hold my breath!

 

[Kingslug20]

The kingslug effect..ill be home then..yall can buy me beers..i like IPA's

 

[Shredmonkey254]

The kingslug effect..ill be home then..yall can buy me beers..i like IPA's

So do I and would gladly buy you a beer if we get any snow!

 

[Kingslug20]

We will...have faith...jackson got no snow for weeks..it dumped all day here...
I bringeth...the snow

 

[ThatGuy]

We will...have faith...jackson got no snow for weeks..it dumped all day here...
I bringeth...the snow

Bring that snow Mr.Slug I’m planning for Thursday and Friday at Stowe if it pans out.

 

[cdskier]

I stopped reading the single chair weather a few years ago because the forecasts were rarely accurate and more wish casting as someone put it well earlier.

I still think he's worth reading. He does a good job explaining the systems and dynamics and reasons for why he expects certain things to happen. Overall I think he's still more accurate than not, but you do have to absolutely watch out for him wish-casting with certain storms (i.e. this last one that really had little model support for what he was expecting would happen). I think it was actually me earlier in this thread that said he was wish-casting this storm before it happened.

Realistically he's just one more piece of information in the grand scheme of things. No single source is infallible and it makes sense to look at as many different sources as possible to see the range of possibilities and draw your own conclusions - i.e. Josh, Scott Braaten, BTV NWS forecast discussion, and even looking at some of the models yourself.

 

[Kingslug20]

Ill be there

 

[Shredmonkey254]

Ill be there

If you go there, you’ll save me ten bucks!

 

[cdskier]

A couple pics of Exterminator from Saturday. The thin cover is much more apparent looking back up the trail than it is looking down the trail. Definitely need snow!