VAIL SUCKS

[thetrailboss]

I didn't realize that they had a Food & Beverage Dept.....

"WHAT DID YOU SAY?!"

 

[jimmywilson69]

the initial rational/thought/strategy these locals would feed trips out into the larger portfolio, is likely played out.

I disagree with this. They know EXACTLY how many people from these feeder hills travel out west and whether they book lodging, meals, etc. That 20% lodge food discount isn't a perk to you, its data mining.

I know lots of people who when traveling out west are using their epic passes vs going other places.

 

[thetrailboss]

I disagree with this. They know EXACTLY how many people from these feeder hills travel out west and whether they book lodging, meals, etc. That 20% lodge food discount isn't a perk to you, its data mining.

I know lots of people who when traveling out west are using their epic passes vs going other places.

Yeah, I agree. They knew what they were doing here.

 

[BenedictGomez]

I still think Bobby’s going to start to shed all the Mickey Mouse hills that were bought along the way, mostly with Peaks.

Yup. They're served their (slim) purpose, now the little ones are likely just a drag on margin.

These will be referred to as, "non-core assets" when break the trial balloon to Wall Street that they're going to sell them, and Wall Street will generally approve.

 

[Zand]

I still think Bobby’s going to start to shed all the Mickey Mouse hills that were bought along the way, mostly with Peaks.

Talk about aging infrastructures and likely needed investment mixed with ever worsening snow seasons and general operational expenses, manpower, etc. Deferred upkeep leads to longer term costs or safety liabilities. Just dump them to local investors for quick cash.

Pass sales are declining and the initial rational/thought/strategy these locals would feed trips out into the larger portfolio, is likely played out.

I wonder if there would be a buyer if Vail tried to package all 4 NH properties. I feel like Fairbanks could do well with those 4 mountains.

 

[kbroderick]

I wonder if there would be a buyer if Vail tried to package all 4 NH properties. I feel like Fairbanks could do well with those 4 mountains.

They probably don't want anyone to do well with properties they sell, especially Wildcat, as a well-run Wildcat could absolutely draw skiers away from Attitash.

 

[Zand]

They probably don't want anyone to do well with properties they sell, especially Wildcat, as a well-run Wildcat could absolutely draw skiers away from Attitash.

That's why I was thinking packaging all 4 might be something they'd do. Or at least unload Wildcat and Attitash together. And they have no business owning Crotched at this point. Sunapee they may want to hang into because I'm sure they rake in the cash with that place.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Would New Hampshire allow that?

 

[Smellytele]

Would New Hampshire allow that?

They allow Vail to own them now...

 

[thetrailboss]

Would New Hampshire allow that?

You mean transfer the lease for Sunapee?

 

[AdironRider]

Vail isn't going to sell a mountain, regardless of size.

You think a company that has a billion in cash needs to sell Wildcat for 10 mill? Seriously dudes, quit being obtuse.

 

[thetrailboss]

"Hey guys! Check out this EPIC podcast featuring my boy, Mikey, who is managing my flagship, Stowe! He is a food and bev alum and his podcast is second in EPICness only to mine! Enjoy!"

Podcast #220: Stowe Mountain VP & GM Mike Giorgio

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www.stormskiing.com

 

[ctdubl07]

I disagree with this. They know EXACTLY how many people from these feeder hills travel out west and whether they book lodging, meals, etc. That 20% lodge food discount isn't a perk to you, its data mining.

I know lots of people who when traveling out west are using their epic passes vs going other places.

Let me try and restate my point. Data mining isnt the relevant issue. I understand that potential value but I would bet the data is telling them that the initial justification to buy at least some these feeder hills, just isnt there. I would bet the number of local passholders at Hidden Valley who spend a week at Beaver Creek was less than 5 last year.

They admit their YoY pass sales are down so it stands to reason fewer people from these non-core hills would be traveling out into the portfolio. Dont think of AZers as typical passholders. I will go out west 2x and EU 2x this season plus visit my VT house every wknd.

These hills came with the Peaks/Mount Snow purchase. They didnt buy MS to get these all these Hills. They had to.
Now these hills are 5+ years older which means the near term required infrastructure investment is even more needed.
IF these feeder hills really increased free cash flow at portfolio resorts, they would have bought more. They haven't made a single non-major resort purchase since.
They are just now increasing liabilities. I would dump them and get cash. I bet if they were to unload a few of these targeted hills, the "those that travel" impact will be negligible.
Thats how Rob can bolster his near term balance sheet and stop devaluation.

 

[eatskisleep]

Vail isn't going to sell a mountain, regardless of size.

You think a company that has a billion in cash needs to sell Wildcat for 10 mill? Seriously dudes, quit being obtuse.

Have we never seen billion dollar corporations sell off assets? LOL. It’s more common than you think.

 

[AdironRider]

Not when it goes against their entire business model, and certainly not when it would represent less than 1% cash on hand.

 

[ctdubl07]

Have we never seen billion dollar corporations sell off assets? LOL. It’s more common than you think.

Yup. Up until 11 months ago, the PE firm that owned my parent organization with a value of $17B, sold off 1 business piece for $3B and my biz for $100M. Combined, that former piece was the largest globally in our space. Not a distress sale, just time for some cash.

The conversation was about aging infrastructure at its core mtns and the needed for investments. Much of That cash isn’t available from or won’t come from new pass sales or FB spend.

An easy cash infusion are these Non Core, increasing liability, dead anchor assets.

 

[BenedictGomez]

the initial justification to buy at least some these feeder hills, just isnt there.

Some of the little bumps Vail didn't want in the first place, they just came packaged into the deal. What is the incremental marketing value in the cache of saying you own "42 resorts" versus 38 resorts against the incremental hit on lowering margin from owning the bump? My guess is it's just not worth the hassle for them eventually

And if activist investors really are starting to kick the tires, they'll definitely want those little non-core distractions gone..

 

[thetrailboss]

Stuart Winchester's take on things.....

Can Vail Revive the Epic Pass by Fixing the Lift Ticket?

As the ski giant sells fewer Epic Passes for the second consecutive year and its western resorts struggle, signals of a revival grow stronger

www.stormskiing.com

 

[bigbob]

After seeing how poorly Vail has run their portfolio of NH resorts I have zero interest in buying an Epic pass or flying across the country to visit one of their resorts anywhere.

 

[AdironRider]

Some of the little bumps Vail didn't want in the first place, they just came packaged into the deal. What is the incremental marketing value in the cache of saying you own "42 resorts" versus 38 resorts against the incremental hit on lowering margin from owning the bump? My guess is it's just not worth the hassle for them eventually

And if activist investors really are starting to kick the tires, they'll definitely want those little non-core distractions gone..

You’ve been guessing wrong since 2008, so I wouldn’t hold my breath.