Weekend 18-20 Feb

[hammer]

OK, this is a stretch but with such a warm dry season so far...from the latest NWS local discussion:

MODEL DISCUSSION...15/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. BEYOND THAT THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE DIFFERENCES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE DIFFERENCES COME IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. THE ECWMF/UKMET/GEFS TAKE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND TRAVELS OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE OPERATIONAL GFS TAKES THE SAME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND AND NORTHEASTWARD RIGHT OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THIS IS THE FIRST RUN OF THE GFS TO SHOW THIS COASTAL STORM AND GIVEN THE LACK OF SUPPORT FROM OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...AM NOT PUTTING A LOT OF CREDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME PRECIP... LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH SO WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT...BUT WILL NOT BE TAKING THE GFS SOLUTION AS A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST.

 

[Angus]

Reading a meteorology BB, everyone seems deeply skeptical about this storm actually evolving the way this particular model is predicting. Funny, they all like snow as much as we do! I'm headed west Saturday morning and just want to get out without any delays - wouldn't that be perfect!

 

[BenedictGomez]

Everyone is slagging the GFS, but the UK trended pretty far north today from where it was previously and the Euro moved slightly north (although it's still far south) too.

WTH knows what will happen at this point, but at least the models are mostly trending north, which at least gives us a glimmer of hope. Gotta be in it to win it. If the GFS is correct though, it's a potential season-saving Godsend for the Poconos.

 

[k123]

Pray to the snow gods!

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Belleayre/6day/mid

 

[4aprice]

Everyone is slagging the GFS, but the UK trended pretty far north today from where it was previously and the Euro moved slightly north (although it's still far south) too.

WTH knows what will happen at this point, but at least the models are mostly trending north, which at least gives us a glimmer of hope. Gotta be in it to win it. If the GFS is correct though, it's a potential season-saving Godsend for the Poconos.

Season savings? Move it north to Northern New England. The Pocono's are doing just fine. Camelback is 100% open with a decent base. As much as I like snow there I would much rather see it fall up north. It would take a major melt down to kill the Pocono season. This year has been proof of what good snowmaking can do and don't be surprised if Camelback continues to blow given the opportunity. They would love to be the last to close in the Pocono's and have events scheduled up to the end of March. Move it north.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[BenedictGomez]

Season savings? Move it north to Northern New England. The Pocono's are doing just fine. Camelback is 100% open with a decent base. As much as I like snow there I would much rather see it fall up north. It would take a major melt down to kill the Pocono season. This year has been proof of what good snowmaking can do and don't be surprised if Camelback continues to blow given the opportunity.

Seriously? I was at Camelback about a week ago, conditions were, lets just say, less than optimal. Yes, I agree they've clearly done an amazing job given the fact there's been absolutely no snowfall, but to say they're "doing just fine" compared to Northern New England is a substantial overstatement.

If they were to pick up 10" it would be huge. And if that happens, you better believe I'll be at Shawnee, Blue, or Camelback next week (depending on the storm path).

 

[jrmagic]

Seriously? I was at Camelback about a week ago, conditions were, lets just say, less than optimal. Yes, I agree they've clearly done an amazing job given the fact there's been absolutely no snowfall, but to say they're "doing just fine" compared to Northern New England is a substantial overstatement.

If they were to pick up 10" it would be huge. And if that happens, you better believe I'll be at Shawnee, Blue, or Camelback next week (depending on the storm path).

So then let it come north and come hit SoVT:flame:

 

[4aprice]

Seriously? I was at Camelback about a week ago, conditions were, lets just say, less than optimal. Yes, I agree they've clearly done an amazing job given the fact there's been absolutely no snowfall, but to say they're "doing just fine" compared to Northern New England is a substantial overstatement.

You should have been there last Sunday. I skied there following a week up in Vermont and I'm telling you the conditions were better at CBK then they were up in Vermont. The front 4 were all fresh blow man-made powder snow. They will make it through March and when the weather warms the spring snow will be great I would take the snow in the Pocono's but would rather see it up north. Yes there has been plenty of hard pack and ice but I ran into that up north as well. Spring is great at Camelback and as long as they make it through March I'll be happy with that.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[kingslug]

This latest forecast for the Cats does not look all that good. With warm temps and freezing nights...only hope is for more than 4 inches which would at least make Sunday morning skiable...think I'll sit this one out...unless.....

 

[hammer]

Latest discussion update...

COASTAL STORM TRACKING S OF NEW ENG SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TO DEAL WITH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE EXTENT OF CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NE AND HOW QUICKLY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DEPARTS WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTHWARD THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM GETS. 00Z MODEL SUITE ACTUALLY IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF COASTAL STORM.

GFS IS STILL FURTHEST N SOLUTION BUT NOT BY A WIDE MARGIN AS ECMWF HAS TRENDED N...AND ECMWF HAS SUPPORT OF THE UKMET AND ALSO GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST BUT GAVE SOME WEIGHT TO THE GFS AS WE CANT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT IT AS THE STORM IS STILL MORE THAN 72 HRS AWAY. IT DOES APPEAR THIS STORM WILL AT LEAST GRAZE COASTAL SNE AND IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

 

[gmcunni]

is this english?

GFS IS STILL FURTHEST N SOLUTION BUT NOT BY A WIDE MARGIN AS ECMWF HAS TRENDED N...AND ECMWF HAS SUPPORT OF THE UKMET AND ALSO GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST BUT GAVE SOME WEIGHT TO THE GFS AS WE CANT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT IT AS THE STORM IS STILL MORE THAN 72 HRS AWAY. IT DOES APPEAR THIS STORM WILL AT LEAST GRAZE COASTAL SNE AND IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

 

[4aprice]

is this english?

ie. We've been burned so many times this winter that we will just admit, we don't know whats going to happen.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[St. Bear]

ie. We've been burned so many times this winter that we will just admit, we don't know whats going to happen.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

It's funny (in a sad kind of way), how the weather people are getting more and more pessimistic and discouraged.

What started out as "Could be a storm!" turned into "There's a chance!" turned into "I guess it's possible".

 

[hammer]

What's interesting is that the models are trending more towards a storm but the forecasters are remaining pessimistic. In all honesty I'm not that optimistic either, especially for NNE.

 

[BenedictGomez]

What's interesting is that the models are trending more towards a storm but the forecasters are remaining pessimistic. In all honesty I'm not that optimistic either, especially for NNE.

Yeah, if anything, this storm is starting to look good for the Poconos, possibly, really good. But there would have to be a pretty major change for this to be decent for NNE. The 12z will hopefully shed some more light on this.

 

[4aprice]

Yeah, if anything, this storm is starting to look good for the Poconos, possibly, really good. But there would have to be a pretty major change for this to be decent for NNE. The 12z will hopefully shed some more light on this.

Snowing in the Pocono's right now. Actually snowing in NNJ right now as well.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[ScottySkis]

Snowing in the Pocono's right now. Actually snowing in NNJ right now as well.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

I just saw that on radar nice.

 

[BenedictGomez]

And now it's looking bleak for anything more than a few inches even for the Poconos. Hopefully this thing shifts northwest somehow. Le sigh; the winter-that-wasnt may continue.

 

[ScottySkis]

O

And now it's looking bleak for anything more than a few inches even for the Poconos. Hopefully this thing shifts northwest somehow. Le sigh; the winter-that-wasnt may continue.

Maybe time to go to Slc

 

[4aprice]

Still snowing in the Pocono's. From the Camelback web cams it looks like maybe 1 or 2 inches. Turned to rain here in NNJ.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ