Current Arctic Pattern: Possible Relaxation and Storm on 1/4

[gladerider]

almost 6" here in NNJ

 

[Ol Dirty Noodle]

6-8” here on the island

 

[Glenn]

Snowing pretty hard in the flatlands! Happy it shifted west and well deliver somewhat in ski country.

 

[Rowsdower]

Next week looks about it before a major January thaw. Lets hope February delivers the goods!

 

[bdfreetuna]

Next week looks about it before a major January thaw. Lets hope February delivers the goods!

Pretty dire statement for January 5th.

 

[gladerider]

josh fox thinks we may get some rain before the MLK weekend. that would suck.

 

[Ol Dirty Noodle]

josh fox thinks we may get some rain before the MLK weekend. that would suck.

I heard the same, trying to get to VT or ME for MLK weekend seeing as the Catskills will probably be washed out

 

[Rowsdower]

There's a chance VT/NH get the goods MLK weekend but its really close right now.

 

[BenedictGomez]

josh fox thinks we may get some rain before the MLK weekend. that would suck.

He has that yesterday because it popped up on the models yesterday. I mean, sure I mentioned I was worried about it too now that that rain's there, but I'm really surprised he ran with it given it was the very first model run to show it.

Just looked and it's still there on the 00z run too, but at least it snows nicely Saturday evening into Sunday morning now, which wasn't there before, but the point is, this could (and probably will) change model-run-to-model-run for a few days.

 

[Glenn]

It's cold today. Saw -24F on the weather station in SoVT today.

 

[Boston Bulldog]

This deep snowpack will do a work in keeping a warm front south of NNE in a potential rainer, but if next weekend comes in as amped as currently modeled, New England, save for possibly Northern Vermont, will get warm sectored and see temps spike.

 

[Glenn]

Holding steady at -14F just north of Bratt this AM. Thankfully, no wind to speak of here. I'm sure that's a different story north west of here in the Greens.

 

[moresnow]

Anyone have early insight into when the rain will start on Friday, Jan. 12th? I'm trying to decide between a day trip on Thursday and a 2-day overnight (Th/F).

Probably between Thursday and Saturday.

We are still 5 days out. No one is going to be able to tell you exactly when it will start or end. And that all depends on where you are going to be.

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[bdfreetuna]

Might transition to snow with a whallop on the back end.

 

[gladerider]

i think we will have a better idea as to what type of precip we will get by tuesday's model runs

 

[bigbog]

Hopefully will stay cold enough in the western mtns, up here, to evade an ice show....

 

[BenedictGomez]

i think we will have a better idea as to what type of precip we will get by tuesday's model runs

This is likely going to be so razor edge thin that I'm not sure we'll know what's what even on Friday. That said, generalizing, from the looks of things, the further northwest the better. I'm thinking Whiteface and Jay Peak might fare the best (or least worst) if all goes well. Would avoid Pokes, Cats, NH given the current data. Given the look of this system, I'm planning on heading for Whiteface and crossing my fingers. It will either be epic or horrendous, I dont think there will be middle ground with this IMO.

 

[Glenn]

NWS Albany was slightly hinting at some snow Saturday north of I-90. But maybe I'm being a bit over optimistic.

 

[Rowsdower]

Nasty pattern setting up for the rest of January. Lots of rain, blasts of warm air between freezes. Hopefully February delivers the goods.

 

[bigbog]

Hopefully will stay cold enough in the western mtns, up here, to evade an ice show....

HA, evade the ice show huh....what a disaster this weekend looks like...