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Cold is coming...

ss20

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Ok so I have been looking at this for a few days now there is a general consensus between the weather models that we could get a very nice shot of cold air next Thursday-Sunday (3rd-6th). Cold enough to blow for a few nights in the upper elevations of VT/NH/ME. Of course many things could change between now and next weekend but it is worth watching. Of course this would be crazzzzzzy early in the season but not unheard of.

A few mountains to look at...
Killington- has opened on October 1st a few times, not since the 90s. I've always heard they get their snowmaking system ready to go in late September. However, the new North Ridge Quad is not ready to go (pics/discussion on K-zone). Super hypothetical here but if it is cold enough maybe they blow Superstar for us mortals before blowing World Cup snow once the new North Ridge lift is open and skiing can move up there. Opening on Superstar before October 15th would be BEASTLY indeed!

Mount Snow- Anyone's guess here. With the new West Lake they flexed their muscles last year and said they were ready to be an early season player. But this was pre-Vail. Has the early season ship sailed? Mount Snow has "pre-opened" early early in October on their beginner slope for a rail jam.

Sunday River- they've never opened before mid-October so their capability/willingness to do so is unknown. But if Killington's lift project runs long and Mount Snow isn't in the early season game SR could absolutely blow away their early season competition after (in my onion) floundering the past few seasons ever since Killington got rid of Nyberg.



All it takes is a few degrees. A few degrees warmer than the models depict now and I become the laughing stock of AZ. A few degrees colder and there'd be a serious snowmaking window there if anyone wants to take it.
 

WoodCore

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You might see the mice go flying but nothing more.
 

laxski

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I love this.... Let’s Go. I skied Mt Snow On October 27th last year. After 6 months off Snow it sure was Fun!!!!
 

FBGM

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Killington is the only real player who would pull the trigger.

But they sure take their time with construction - so I don’t see them having a lift. And at the rate they are going some other areas will be open before them this year.
 

drjeff

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Killington is the only real player who would pull the trigger.

But they sure take their time with construction - so I don’t see them having a lift. And at the rate they are going some other areas will be open before them this year.

Given that as of a week ago, per the Green Mountain Control Systems FB page and post, the haul rope had been pulled and was just awaiting splicing, the chairs were assembled, and they (GMCS was involved in very active final wiring work) and now today, from the Killington Peak webcam, in between the clouds, it appears that there are chairs hanging from the haul rope, it would seem like load testing and certification of the lift won't be that far off.

I'm guessing that Killington had Leitner/Poma had October 1st (or something right around there) as the agreed upon finish date, and from what can be discerned from multiple images, that seems like the lift is very close to being completed right now
 

thebigo

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My favorite part of this is it's a completely flip-flop from literally just a few days ago.

Models have been showing the temp anomaly shifting blue during the first full week of October for some time. Flip is only because it is now in range of the cpc graphic, gfs has actually been fairly consistent.
 

tumbler

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There might be some system testing but no one is going to try to make enough to open. That would be huge waste of $$$.
 

machski

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The OP's comment on Sunday River never opening before mid October is wrong. They opened in 92 or 93 within the first week of October. It was one of the first years after they put the Locke midstation in and during the LBO era, so no telling if current situation would do the same. But given the lack of investment in on mountain by SR outside of again improved water capacity, they just might try this. Especially if they smell blood in the water (IE K not ready to go that early due to North Ridge Chair work).

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slatham

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Early Oct cold shot is minor and in and out. Need to see whether a more significant cold shot materializes post Columbus Day weekend. Unfortunately the Euro weeklies do not show any sustained below or even normal temps. Although the later weeks are error prone, I’m not too encouraged about cold pre mid month and probably not until late month October.
 

machski

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Early Oct cold shot is minor and in and out. Need to see whether a more significant cold shot materializes post Columbus Day weekend. Unfortunately the Euro weeklies do not show any sustained below or even normal temps. Although the later weeks are error prone, I’m not too encouraged about cold pre mid month and probably not until late month October.
The early cold also seems to be bringing moisture with it. Not really the best conditions to crank out a ton of snow in.

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Newpylong

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Killington is the only real player who would pull the trigger.

But they sure take their time with construction - so I don’t see them having a lift. And at the rate they are going some other areas will be open before them this year.

North Ridge is a Poma (and their subs) install, so hard to knock K for the install speed. That said, I don't consider the pace slow at all. It's nearly there and lets face it IF they happen to lose the first to open (ungodly early), they have a new lift instead - so be it.
 

MEtoVTSkier

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Somebody posted that the chairs are hanging, so I wouldn't imagine final work and load testing is very far off. Hopefully, all the cleanup and grading and rock removal is all caught up, so they just have to setup the guns.

What's the story with the Great Bear tunnel, and the rest of the tunnel fixes and tweaks they were going to do?
 

crazy

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Right now it's looking like highs in the 50s at Killington for the next 10 days. I don't know what the outlook is beyond that. I'm guessing that we are looking at late October at the earliest. The beginning of last season was a miracle. I hope that we get a repeat of that, but I'm not getting my hopes up.
 
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