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What in the Sam Hell is going on out West

fbrissette

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This isn't just an American issue. Spain, Italy and France totalled 81,022 new cases yesterday, just a wisker short of US new cases. That with half the US population. Add in Germany and the UK to that total, Europe with similar population is vastly exceeding the US on daily new case counts. Its a human thing where populations are not draconianly controlled by their governments.

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Spain Italy and France had all pretty much reopened everything. They are now actively reapplying control measures. Expect the numbers to go down in a few weeks.
 
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Anyone still think this is some random event caused by a bat..I sure as hell don't and never have.

Despite the fact that a random event caused by a bat is a very common cause of disease outbreaks? Not just in China. Check out the excellent book Spillover (2012) by David Quammen which does the best job I've seen so fat of explaining in plain English how these events happen.
 

ScottySkis

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Despite the fact that a random event caused by a bat is a very common cause of disease outbreaks? Not just in China. Check out the excellent book Spillover (2012) by David Quammen which does the best job I've seen so fat of explaining in plain English how these events happen.

Yes but no virus ever does what this does to human body making it seems like it came from a lab
I sure mistake or on purpose it to late to find out officaly now.
I sure in past history of world bad stuff happens when u mess with things like that in labs through out the world
I sure most world countries would not admit to it that always happens by such wonderful government s around the world
Sorry for rant and political a bump from ski thread
 

ss20

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That lab in Wuhan is going to be the 21st century's JFK assassination's conspiracy. People gonna be looking over it 50 years from now. I think this was accidently released from a lab.

Anyway, should be a lot of skiing out west in a couple weeks with record cold temperatures and this early snow. Arapahoe says they're ready.
 

BenedictGomez

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only 1 level 4 hazard containment lab that studies these viruses..yes. There arent a lot of these in the world..for good reason.

When I learned early this year that the only Level 4 BioSafety lab in all of China (Snapple fun fact? China's a pretty big country) was literally in Wuhan, and also walking distance from the epicenter of the outbreak, I was 100% convinced SARS-COV-2 accidentally escaped from that lab. I dont need anyone to "confirm" that for me. Statistically speaking, it is the mother of all Occam's Razor tests.
 
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When I learned early this year that the only Level 4 BioSafety lab in all of China (Snapple fun fact? China's a pretty big country) was literally in Wuhan, and also walking distance from the epicenter of the outbreak, I was 100% convinced SARS-COV-2 accidentally escaped from that lab. I dont need anyone to "confirm" that for me. Statistically speaking, it is the mother of all Occam's Razor tests.


Occams razor applies, but you've got it backwards. That region has long been the source of viral outbreaks, thus it became a center for research.
 

BenedictGomez

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Occams razor applies, but you've got it backwards. That region has long been the source of viral outbreaks, thus it became a center for research.

You're going with the, "it's just a coincidence" theory.

Nope.

And the "nope" explanation is both geographically & statistically explained by you in your above sentence.

"region"
 
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BenedictGomez

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As for "What in the Sam Hell is going on out West", while there are spikes going on, it should be noted that some of the seeming severity of these spikes can essentially be explained by the fact that in any data sample, variance of the mean is inversely proportional to sample size.

We're also testing a helluva lot more, more than anyone in the world in fact, so we are picking up more positives, even asymptomatic positives, which is a good thing. For instance, in just the last week both my daughter & I were tested for COVID19 & it wasn't even suspected that either of us had COVID19. We're likely now "overtesting", but that's not really a bad thing.

And has previously been mentioned, it's getting colder out so indoor activity is likely picking up.
 
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You're going with the, "it's just a coincidence" theory.

Nope.

And the "nope" explanation is both geographically & statistically explained by you in your above sentence.

"region"

Coincidence? No. Just science. This exact sequence of events has been so widely predicted to happen for so long that they made a movie of it in 2011. Then when it actually happens, folks insist there must be a conspiracy???

Bringing the focus back to skiing and what's happening right now in the West, the case counts will likely climb through the first part of this season and stabilize as the first rounds of vaccines come online in 2021. I imagine the various rules around resort operations will be in place this whole season but may ease before the 21-22 season.
 

Nick

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I've been super cautious - only have been out to eat twice since Covid started. Mostly still doing Doordash for restaurants, Instacart for groceries. Kids are schooling at home which has been a challenge.

The thing for us is my father in law is recovering from Leukemia and is high risk, and my mother in law has conditions also that put her into high risk. They spend maybe 1/2 the year with us, so we are being extra cautious especially when they are coming. It's the high risk people I worry most about.
 

Smellytele

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My in laws decided not to go to Florida this year. They go every year from end of October to the end of April. Didn’t want to travel in a plane nor did they want to drive. None of the fla friends are going down either.


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Nick

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Where are they coming from? My father in law has flown a few times now (he is outpatient at Mass General still). always flies with the n95 masks. None of us really feel particularly comfortable with that, but he wnats to be back at his place in south carolina and not be up there the entire time.
 
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Where are they coming from? My father in law has flown a few times now (he is outpatient at Mass General still). always flies with the n95 masks. None of us really feel particularly comfortable with that, but he wnats to be back at his place in south carolina and not be up there the entire time.

If it helps at all, evidence shows the flying part is actually pretty safe. Two recent studies show extremely low likelihood of transmission on a plane. Mask wearing is almost universal and the frequent air exchanges that are part of the pressurization process further reduce it. An excellent real world example is the British guy who was an asymptomatic superspreader. Infected heaps of people in London, flew to Singapore and infected heaps of people there before flying back to the UK. Nobody on either of his 13 hour flights got infected, and that was before mask wearing.
 

BenedictGomez

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Coincidence? No. Just science. This exact sequence of events has been so widely predicted to happen for so long that they made a movie of it in 2011. Then when it actually happens, folks insist there must be a conspiracy???

You dont get it.

When I stated the Wuhan Level 4 BioSafety lab is "walking distance" from the Wuhan wet market where the 1st COVID19 cluster broke out, I meant that literally, not figuratively.

China is a nation of almost 4,000,000 square miles.

If you wish to believe that COVID19 "coincidentally" broke out that close to the only laboratory in China which studies & houses deadly SARS forms of coronavirus, well, feel free.

You're additionally wrong to think that outbreaks only happen in that region of China when you say, "that region has long been the source of viral outbreaks". Hell, prior to COVID19 by far the most famous SARS outbreak (or any outbreak for that matter) was the 2003 SARS, which started in Guandong, which is about 600 miles from Wuhan, which is about the distance from New York City to Georgia! Not exactly "walking distance" there.
 
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