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icecoast1

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Are people really fighting over groceries - or did it happen in one or two places and we are acting like all sorts of people are doing it?

We're only a few days into it so it's probably not happening on a mass scale yet but it will get worse if this thing lasts a while, which it probably will
 

VTKilarney

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We're only a few days into it so it's probably not happening on a mass scale yet but it will get worse if this thing lasts a while, which it probably will

No, I don't think that it will get worse. China and Italy did not experience food shortages and we have plenty of food here. I actually think the worst of the food hoarding is over. People who were going to hoard have done it by now.
 

machski

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Look, I don't want to be a total downer, but I hate how there seems to be two camps on this issue. This is a novel virus Pandemic. The side that wants us all the shelter in place to slow the virus down, yes that may well work to flatten the curve. But here's the thing I think many are missing, this flattening of the curve won't lop it off, its like taking your hand on a ball of pizza dough and smashing it flatter. Some of that dough push out from beneath your hand, you still have the same amount of dough. So while we slow the rate of progression this thing will still progress. If it is not slowed naturally by seasonal change (like colds and flus) or by treatments/vaccines, it will continue to progress and make its way through civilaztion. So in the end, their is still the potential that we have the same amount of deaths, they just got spread out. With how fast the brakes got slammed on the economy, we won't just come out fast and furious from the economic toll the current and potential future distancing/isolation measures take. The economic pain will cause a second human suffering across the globe, and likely also contribute to deaths. Everyone needs to be ready to accept this reality because it is what is here. Do your parts as you can to slow it, but realize no matter how far you take it, a lot of this is out of all our hands. Pandemics have Darwin written all over them,

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Edd

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Nov 8, 2006
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Newmarket, NH
May have posted this already but I went to a grocery store yesterday for minor provisions. People were keeping a respectful distance from each other but everyone seemed out of it. Felt a bit post apocalyptic. No toilet paper but there was a sign on the empty shelf saying only one roll per person. This was in Stratham, NH.


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deadheadskier

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Sums it up pretty well, and why NOT traveling from a distance to a ski area is important now. View attachment 26608

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You've just summed up my day. I've literally just been fielding calls all day long from panicked hospitals trying to bring closed units in their facilities back on line with the closest resemblance to ICU level technology as they can.

Some situations with hospitals that have money, it's brand new equipment.
More commonly it's been situations where they have old decommissioned products in closets that they want to redeploy in a hurry. Basically in terms that people can understand, how do they put Windows XP or even 98 technology back in service in a Windows 10 world

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BenedictGomez

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how do they put Windows XP or even 98 technology back in service in a Windows 10 world

I dunno, but if Clippy makes a comeback, I'll be psyched.

 

Dickc

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Dec 5, 2013
Messages
265
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18
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Northeast Mass
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32097725

This article is a bit technical, but it explains the spread fairly well. The infection factor cited is 2.28 That means each case will spread to 2.28 new infections.
1x2.28=2.28
2.28x2.28=5.194
x2.28=11.085
x2.28=27.02
x2.28=61.61
x2.28=140.47
x2.28=320
x2.28=730
x2.28=1664
x2.28=3796
x2.28=8655
x2.28=19734

I don't think I need to do more math, you see how the numbers jump up. It only takes five more iterations before you have a million infected. Social distancing cuts this down by quite a bit. Its not supposed to stop us all from getting it, its about keeping that number low enough so we do not overwhelm the medical system.

Keep the spread slow enough, and none of DHS windows XP machines might have to be used. Do irresponsible stuff, and there may NOT be a machine if YOU need one. If so, YOU DIE.
 

skimagic

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Jan 13, 2012
Messages
231
Points
18
Waterville was garbage. Totally frozen solid base snow under 2" of new snow so you couldn't figure out what was groomed (which still wasn't very good) and what wasn't. True Grit was a death trap.

Maybe more snow to cover the crap up. Was it busy due to $17 ticket? Cleaning going on?
 

Zand

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Dec 30, 2003
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Spencer, MA
Maybe more snow to cover the crap up. Was it busy due to $17 ticket? Cleaning going on?

If tomorrow stays cool then Thursday should be decent. $17 ticket helped the crowd I'm sure. Lodge was roped off except the restrooms so didn't see anything in my brief trip inside. There was a sign saying no storage of personal belongings but people had them thrown all around the entrance and down the hall.
 

deadheadskier

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Look, I don't want to be a total downer, but I hate how there seems to be two camps on this issue. This is a novel virus Pandemic. The side that wants us all the shelter in place to slow the virus down, yes that may well work to flatten the curve. But here's the thing I think many are missing, this flattening of the curve won't lop it off, its like taking your hand on a ball of pizza dough and smashing it flatter. Some of that dough push out from beneath your hand, you still have the same amount of dough. So while we slow the rate of progression this thing will still progress. If it is not slowed naturally by seasonal change (like colds and flus) or by treatments/vaccines, it will continue to progress and make its way through civilaztion. So in the end, their is still the potential that we have the same amount of deaths, they just got spread out. With how fast the brakes got slammed on the economy, we won't just come out fast and furious from the economic toll the current and potential future distancing/isolation measures take. The economic pain will cause a second human suffering across the globe, and likely also contribute to deaths. Everyone needs to be ready to accept this reality because it is what is here. Do your parts as you can to slow it, but realize no matter how far you take it, a lot of this is out of all our hands. Pandemics have Darwin written all over them,

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All very true, but this is really about mitigating disastrous casualties due to a pandemic caused surge of sick people and our lack of capacity to care for them. So, two things happen here. You make hard choices about who receives care and who doesn't. But, the second and bigger problem is the potential for vast amount of caregivers to also become sick because hospitals lack the isolation rooms and technology to have these highly contagious people looked after from a safe distance.

Honestly from what I see in the field, a big culprit causing our lack of capacity to handle something like this is consolidation in the industry. Outside of major metropolitan areas almost every hospital you drive by has a whole bunch of empty patient rooms that now resemble storage closets. The big city hospitals have bought up most all of the rural hospitals and closed down the critical care capacity and technology in those facilities They essentially just use them as day procedure centers and EDs. Anyone who has a serious illness gets shipped out to the big city campus.

This consolidation strategy works well to reduce cost and improve efficiencies during normal times. During not so normal times like these, it can create big problems. Why? The rapid spread of an illness like this in high population density areas fills up the big city hospitals to capacity very quickly. Then the disease spreads to rural areas and those rural hospitals no longer have that safety net available to ship those critically ill patients to in order to receive life saving care. The city hospitals are all full. So, they die waiting for a room in the city to open.

This last part is a really the crux of why urban dwellers need to stay where they are and not head to the hills for non-essential reasons during an event like this. You are risking infecting people in areas with no capacity or technology to deal with such illnesses.



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legalskier

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Yeah it's a shame people dont get that this time off isnt meant for vacationing. Watching people behave at ski areas in the last few days is just one of many examples of how people can't be trusted to behave responsibly in those situations

I guess I lucked out at Belle on Saturday- no lift lines & only used the lodge for BR break & to get lunch out of my boot bag. Basically was outdoors by myself the entire day. If it had been like Stratton I would've bailed too.
 

urungus

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Dec 1, 2016
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Look, I don't want to be a total downer, but I hate how there seems to be two camps on this issue. This is a novel virus Pandemic. The side that wants us all the shelter in place to slow the virus down, yes that may well work to flatten the curve. But here's the thing I think many are missing, this flattening of the curve won't lop it off, its like taking your hand on a ball of pizza dough and smashing it flatter. Some of that dough push out from beneath your hand, you still have the same amount of dough. So while we slow the rate of progression this thing will still progress. If it is not slowed naturally by seasonal change (like colds and flus) or by treatments/vaccines, it will continue to progress and make its way through civilaztion. So in the end, their is still the potential that we have the same amount of deaths, they just got spread out. With how fast the brakes got slammed on the economy, we won't just come out fast and furious from the economic toll the current and potential future distancing/isolation measures take. The economic pain will cause a second human suffering across the globe, and likely also contribute to deaths. Everyone needs to be ready to accept this reality because it is what is here. Do your parts as you can to slow it, but realize no matter how far you take it, a lot of this is out of all our hands. Pandemics have Darwin written all over them,

It is NOT the same number of deaths. In Italy the system was overwhelmed, there were not enough ventilators, etc, and doctors had to decide who to treat and who should be left to fend for themselves (die). The whole point of flattening curve is to slow the rate of infection so that everyone who needs treatment can get it, and hopefully lives will be saved.
 

Smellytele

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Right where I want to be
No, I don't think that it will get worse. China and Italy did not experience food shortages and we have plenty of food here. I actually think the worst of the food hoarding is over. People who were going to hoard have done it by now.

Actually stopped at the grocery store today just to get some yogurt and a few other things and walked by the meat or where the meat was supposed to be. There were a few steaks and some pork loin but no chicken or hamburg. Was looking to get any so no issue for me.
 

KustyTheKlown

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we went on saturday evening. the only meat left was weird shit like prepackaged ground veal and whole corned beefs.
 

BenedictGomez

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Some of my favorite Celtic bands have been doing "quaranstream" concerts online for Saint Patrick's Day for their fans since all their concert gigs got cancelled.

Yet another reason why Celtic music is awesome.
 

KustyTheKlown

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Some of my favorite Celtic bands have been doing "quaranstream" concerts online for Saint Patrick's Day for their fans since all their concert gigs got cancelled.

Yet another reason why Celtic music is awesome.

prob not the kind of celtic you are referencing but the dropkick murphys are streaming tonight. not my thing, but they traditionally go big for st pats

nowadays nyc (house/techno club) are streaming djs every night from 8-12

i think we'll see lots of bands, djs, comedians, etc doing this especially on the weekends.
 
Last edited:

Smellytele

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prob not the kind of celtic you are referencing but the dropkick murphys are streaming tonight. not my thing, but they traditionally go big for st pats

nowadays nyc (house/techno club) are streaming djs every night from 8-12

i think we'll lots of bands, djs, comedians, etc doing this especially on the weekends.

Fine for being in a club but house/techno at home by yourself? That seems awful.
 

legalskier

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Some of my favorite Celtic bands have been doing "quaranstream" concerts online for Saint Patrick's Day for their fans since all their concert gigs got cancelled.

Yet another reason why Celtic music is awesome.

Dropkick Murphys are livestreaming their St Patricks Day concert at 7 pm on youtube, fb, instagram.
 
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