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Winter Forecast 2015-2016

ChicoKat

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The long range GFS has a number of systems with a track keeping us on the snow side. this one most notably. Its way out there no question but we can still hope for this winter to somewhat right itself...can't we.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_41.png
 

Abubob

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The long range GFS has a number of systems with a track keeping us on the snow side. this one most notably. Its way out there no question but we can still hope for this winter to somewhat right itself...can't we.
There's no doubt that there's plenty of moisture to produce a large snowstorm but the fact is that the GFS has had a number in long range snowstorms that just didn't pan out. But hey - anything's possible. R i i i i i ght.
 

ChicoKat

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So much for March 4th. Fun while it lasted. Latest GFS run comes up empty compared to previous. Over and out:sadwalk::sadwalk::sadwalk:
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jack97

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I really think it a weather pattern never seen or sampled by the models and they dont have a clue how to pick it up

That's what I'm thinking as well. We have long cycles of the AMO, PDO and the ~11 yr el nino cycle. Now the scientists in the field are calling for workshop papers on the Arctic oscillation to better predict this cycle. Yes, its a 2014 workshop but it tells me we don't have a clue on prediction of this oscillation yet.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/events/2014/arctic-predictions-science/


Could be the models have never seen the alignment of these phases until now.
 

ChicoKat

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last year around this time it was all Southern NE. This year 2 and what could be 3 in row up thru NY. Seems like Northern NE is in a no fly zone.
 

JDMRoma

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Next Thursday-Friday...holy shit how many times can we get rain in one season?

Are you saying next week too ? Or was this in reference to this weeks Melt down ?


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