Wst 3/23-24

[Killingtime]

We are in the same boat. Can't leave until Sat morning. Will I be risking my life?

You should be ok. The plows will be out by then and they do a good job. If the forecasts are correct Friday will be downright scary to drive in. I've done it and it sucks. Takes twice as long too. 9 hour white knuckle drive to K from LI? Not anymore! Hope to ski half of Saturday and all day Sunday.

 

[drjeff]

We are in the same boat. Can't leave until Sat morning. Will I be risking my life?

Given that much of this storm is predicted to be elevation based to really get the maximum snow totals, for most folks, regardless of when they're traveling, the majority of one's travels if they involve lower elevation roads for the bulk of their miles, won't be an issue. It seems like you won't have to worry too much about snow accumulation on the roads either in any quantity or at least in a quantity that can be an issue travel wise in a long duration storm until you get above say 1500 to 2000 feet.

Chances are that until you start climbing up towards the spine of the Greens or into the high peaks of the ADK's and Northern NH/ME, it will more than likely just be a wet drive, with maybe some occasional slush out of the travel lanes for the bulk of this storm as it appears forcasted now

 

[cdskier]

me too. curious why you take 73 instead of 4?

I tried all the various routes at different points and decided I liked 73 the best. Had a couple locals in the MRV tell me that was the route they used as well. Generally speaking it works pretty well to get as far north as possible on the western side of the greens before cutting over to avoid the snowier eastern side as long as possible. I'm only on 100 for about 20 miles. The Brandon Gap itself is also pretty straight and not too steep on the eastern side which I like too.

 

[mikec142]

Curious to know thoughts on the drive from NJ. Details as follows - thinking of leaving NJ around 11-12pm-ish. Drive up 87 (stop in Saratoga for coffee and sandwich). 87 -> 149 -> 4 -> 22A -> 7 -> to South Burlington. Stay with family on Friday night in South Burlington. Drive 89 -> 100S to Sugarbush or MRG on Saturday morning. Same thing Sunday morning and leave to go back to NJ via the Brandon Gap Sunday afternoon.

I'm wondering what driving conditions will be like for the 5.5 hour drive on Friday and then what the conditions will be like at 7:30-8am for the one hour drive from S. Burlington to Sugarbush on Saturday.

 

[HowieT2]

I tried all the various routes at different points and decided I liked 73 the best. Had a couple locals in the MRV tell me that was the route they used as well. Generally speaking it works pretty well to get as far north as possible on the western side of the greens before cutting over to avoid the snowier eastern side as long as possible. I'm only on 100 for about 20 miles. The Brandon Gap itself is also pretty straight and not too steep on the eastern side which I like too.

over the years I tried the brandon gap a few times and didnt find that it saved any time over taking 4 to 100 but who knows.
I'll probably see you tomorrow night in the granville gulf.

 

[HowieT2]

Curious to know thoughts on the drive from NJ. Details as follows - thinking of leaving NJ around 11-12pm-ish. Drive up 87 (stop in Saratoga for coffee and sandwich). 87 -> 149 -> 4 -> 22A -> 7 -> to South Burlington. Stay with family on Friday night in South Burlington. Drive 89 -> 100S to Sugarbush or MRG on Saturday morning. Same thing Sunday morning and leave to go back to NJ via the Brandon Gap Sunday afternoon.

I'm wondering what driving conditions will be like for the 5.5 hour drive on Friday and then what the conditions will be like at 7:30-8am for the one hour drive from S. Burlington to Sugarbush on Saturday.

I think there will be stretch on 89 south that will be sketchy

 

[cdskier]

over the years I tried the brandon gap a few times and didnt find that it saved any time over taking 4 to 100 but who knows.
I'll probably see you tomorrow night in the granville gulf.

Yea, I'm not sure how much time difference it actually makes compared to 4. The gap itself I liked best compared to other ways over the mountain. On Rt 4 in the Mendon/Killington area I always felt like there were too many people driving too fast trying to pass people even in bad weather.

 

[tnt1234]

Hunter or Bell saturday?

 

[KustyTheKlown]

belle. not even a question. ever. especially with new snow. but really, plattekill. duh.

 

[KustyTheKlown]

turnover to snow has already occurred per the mad river live cam. its gonna be a long 36 hours of snow.

 

[kingslug]

Joy...
Ill figure it out tomorrow..

 

[kingslug]

Whats funny is we have to be meteorologists to ski around here...

 

[cdskier]

turnover to snow has already occurred per the mad river live cam. its gonna be a long 36 hours of snow.

It was always supposed to be snow at this point at MRG. MRG is enough above the MRV valley elevation plus the warmest part of the storm is during the day tomorrow, not overnight tonight. Granted I hope it stays all snow at the MRG base level, but am completely ok with the valley changing to non-snow for a bit.

 

[tnt1234]

belle. not even a question. ever. especially with new snow. but really, plattekill. duh.

Yeah... PLatty too far out of the driving range. Need to be back in beautiful NJ by 5:30. Platty is 40 minutes more of drive time not spent skiing.

Belle is the obvious answer...except...I'm curious about the new trails at hunter...But screw it....Belle delivers the mental mountain refresh...and if they really get over a foot, cathedral brook will open and maybe dream catcher....

 

[abc]

Every way you look at the forecast, it’s going to a a good deal of snow in northern VT. Maybe a different amount than forecast, but 8” is a lot, so is 10” or even 12”, or 6 for that matter.

Less certain are to the southern region. Even more uncertain in the Cats.

What’s really really uncertain are how much wind, or how bad the road will be and when.

 

[WWF-VT]

It was always supposed to be snow at this point at MRG. MRG is enough above the MRV valley elevation plus the warmest part of the storm is during the day tomorrow, not overnight tonight. Granted I hope it stays all snow at the MRG base level, but am completely ok with the valley changing to non-snow for a bit.

If you believed Josh Fox a few days ago then MRG should already have a foot of snow by now. FWIW - it's 9 PM and snowing here at the base of Mt Ellen.

 

[ss20]

Was already snowing just above the valley in Weston VT at 5pm when I arrived. 9pm now and there is wet snow, elevation approx. 1,400 feet. A little colder than forecasted...I wasn't expecting to see a changover to snow in the valley til after midnight. Looks like a lull coming tonight and then it cranks up big time early tomorrow AM.

Can't wait to drive Rt 100 between Weston and Ludlow tomorrow. Hitting Killington tomorrow.

 

[cdskier]

NWS BTV:

A quick couple inches of snow could have an impact on the morning commute before a mid-level dry slot works into the region from the east allowing precip intensity to weaken from the Champlain Valley eastward while ptype transitions to a rain/snow mix. Lighter precipitation is expected for the daylight hours Friday before the surface-700mb low stalls over Maine Friday night creating favorable conditions for moderate to heavy snow to develop after sunset, especially across the western slopes of the Adirondacks and northern Greens.

This really is quite a favorable forecast for driving up tomorrow afternoon. My biggest concern remains the wind for Saturday...

 

[tnt1234]

If you believed Josh Fox a few days ago then MRG should already have a foot of snow by now. FWIW - it's 9 PM and snowing here at the base of Mt Ellen.

josh was calling for 3' at one point......

 

[cdskier]

josh was calling for 3' at one point......

I just re-read Josh's blog posts from this week and earlier this week he was only calling for "several gloppy inches" on the mountain by Friday morning. Today's post updated that to potentially 4-8" by tomorrow morning which could very well be possible.

The 3' thing in his twitter headline some people have taken a little out of context. His actual detailed blog post called for about 2' at the summits (which was in line with what NWS said was possible at that point as well), but he also said he wouldn't be surprised to see 3' at the summits. Latest models show that jackpot zone could be more in the Adirondacks, but he wasn't necessarily wrong that the storm is capable of producing those amounts.

At any rate, I'll be perfectly content with 12+" as long as the lifts are spinning.