Rebecca very reliable Facebook weather forecasters

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  1. #1

    Rebecca very reliable Facebook weather forecasters

    A look at this coming week into the first part of February.
    https://www.facebook.com/groups/7413...0508975064585/
    Rebeca North East Facebook page weather very good at her job
    I rate her predictions at above 80% most of the time.

    https://m.facebook.com/rebeccanortheastweather/
    This week is going to be generally cold, but the below average temperatures won’t be as sustained as they looked to be a week ago. That has caused the expected, cry, winter is over, another warm winter, and so on. I’ve been asked, “why keep posting on the medium and long range if what I said a week or more ago changes”? My answer is “that’s why I post on the longer range so much”. Patterns adjust and evolve. So, I try to keep you in the loop as to how the pattern is progressing. This post will get into the meteorology a bit….. Y’all can skip to the bottom if you want to see my final thought.

    As I said, this week starts out cold, but we will see some warming for the second half heading into the weekend. The air temperature is going to be average to slightly above average……In other words fairly seasonal. So, it won’t be a torch by any stroke of the imagination. The week ahead, is looking basically benign with a possible storm this weekend.
    I will try to post on the Euro Weeklies in the Weather Group sometime today; if not today then tomorrow. But on here we can talk a little about the American and Australian ideas of what’s ahead.

    I called for the EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) and WPO (Western Pacific Oscillation) to go negative, but they haven’t. The ENSO isn’t looking quite the way I thought it would at this point. But we still do have the warm spot in the GOA (Gulf of Alaska). The reason for all of this has to do with the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation). It was in the warm phase 6, this is helped in assisting the EPO and WPO to stay positive. With the positive phase we had warmth. We also have had this undercutting Pacific Jet (PJ). The PJ hasn’t been kind to our storm tracks, which has also helped contribute to how the winter has shaped up so far.

    All the models do generally snow the next 30-40 days as being cold. The American CFSv2 (The Climate Forecast System Version 2), Australian BOMM (Australian Bureau of Meteorology - POAMA Coupled System) and the American GFS (Global Forecasting System) are showing overall cold, with the American GFS model the farthest east with the cold. The BOMM was higher into phase 8 last week. But it has since fallen off to a more weak phase 8. The Euro model is the farthest west. So, while they support the idea of cold, they each have it centered differently and various extents of the cold. The IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) is an important player in the MJO. It was in a strong cold phase for last Fall heading into Early winter. Then it reversed to a warm phase signal. The last few days have seen it rebound a bit. Right now, it looks right around average, to slightly positive. This will limit the influence of the IOD for the rest of this winter and into spring. The reason the MJO has acted atypically this year, very well could be due to the expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool. But that is a discussion for another time. The signals are mixed, so things could go either way at this point.

    What the MJO does is going to be critical to how things evolve over the next several weeks. MJO phases eight through three are considered cold phases this time of year. When we look at the IOD the Indicators for cold in the Eastern CONUS signals are mixed. Many of the models are taking the MJO into the NULL phases, which means there is no/or little MJO influence on the pattern. We have seen cold winters that had the MJO going NULL, the most notable was 2015. If it enters the NULL, what phase it was before then is important. If we enter NULL from Phase 8 we have a better chance of seeing a lot of cold, as opposed to entering NULL from phase 6.

    So, the bottom line is …. I’m sticking with my idea for overall cold for February. I do think the pattern will turn to more sustained cold…. but I wouldn’t be surprised if it went the other way.

    Last edited by ScottySkis; Jan 20, 2020 at 7:48 PM.

  2. #2
    https://www.facebook.com/groups/7413...0508975064585/
    Rebeca North East Facebook page weather very good at her job
    I rate her predictions at above 80% most of the time.
    https://m.facebook.com/rebeccanortheastweather/
    Today is cold, my high temperature for today was 11. This week will be fairly non-eventful, as Canadian high pressure builds in.

    Looking at satellite we can see the energy that will be moving onto the West Coast. This will progress across the CONUS this week; then possibility becoming an issue for us here in the Northeast. I’ve been talking about this possible storm for a few days now.

    The last few days, several of y’all have been upset with the extent of the warmth coming in for the 2nd half of this week. I’ve been saying the temperatures will be close to seasonal, but not a torch. The models are backing off on the amount of warmth going into this weekend. If you want a snowstorm that is a good trend.

    As for the weekend setup. We will have high pressure over Eastern Canada, as I said the other day, this looks to setup near Hudson Bay. If this indeed happens, there would be a tendency for cold air to filter down out of Canada ahead of the approaching storm. Again, a good thing if you want a snowstorm. (we could see a shortwave move out of Canada, just before the weekend event. The Arctic Oscillation is currently positive. So, there is a lack of upstream blocking. This would normally mean the storm would what to move into the Lakes. Now before y’all start to cringe. We do have another part of the puzzle that has a role to play. We’re going to have a storm off the Southeast Coast.Our approaching system will squeeze between the northern high and the southeast low. That low off the southeast, will allow the storm approaching from the west to tap the breaks, keeping it from turning too early into the Great Lakes. If you remember, I said the storm would try to go into the Great Lakes, but the energy would undoubtedly recurve south and east heading for the Mid Atlantic Coast. Right now, the models are supporting this idea, showing development off the Mid Atlantic Coast. With the cold air close by any coastal forming in that location, would have something to draw on. Once the coastal forms, it will move north and east; right now, the most likely track would be south of Long Island and Cape Cod. So, right now this could be an interior Northeast/northern Mid Atlantic snowstorm; this would keep the core of the snow, north and west of the major cities along the I-95 Corridor. But if the coastal low forms a little farther south, it could shift the snow axis south, bringing the Mid Atlantic and closer to the Coast into play.

    I’ve been asked to show model runs once in a while. So, here is the GFS and Euro. Both show a similar idea on both the track and temperature profile. Temperatures will be a major key. But the overall setup isn’t all that bad. We will see how this trends over the next few days.

    Yesterday, I posted on the cold outlook for the next few weeks. While not terrible; it’s not as cold as I thought it would be. But the pattern is going to remain very active. So we see.

    Images courtesy of Pivotal Weather.

  3. #3

    Join Date
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    She is pretty good, I follow on FB

  4. #4
    [QUOTE=ScottySkis;1034631]https://www.facebook.com/groups/7413...0508975064585/
    Rebeca North East Facebook page weather very good at her job
    I rate her predictions at above 80% most of the time.
    https://m.facebook.com/rebeccanortheastweather/

    The deep trough over the East Coast had Floridians shivering this morning. 30’s were all the way down to the Florida Straits.

    Today is about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Tomorrow and Friday will be even warmer. Then changes start Friday afternoon lasting through Sunday.

    A look at the next 7-10 days, including more on our weekend storm.

    Looking at the 500mb anomaly chart. We can see the higher heights in Canada, but what we can’t see is the upper ridging in the Southeast CONUS. But there isn’t a persistent flow of cold air coming out of Northwest North America either. So generally, temperatures look to stay around average. There is also this undercutting Jet. This is going to keep the pattern extremely active for the next few weeks. These are weekly anomalies, so there will be some moderately warmer than average, and days that are relatively below average. But like I’ve been saying the Southeast Ridge would be relaxing. The models support that idea. With average temperatures and an active pattern, more snow is likely as we move forward into the first part of February.

    This weekend

    The high pressure over us will move away, allowing the storm from the west to approach. The primary low still looks to move toward the Ohio Valley then there looks to be a transfer south and east, with a secondary low forming near the Delmarva. Later Friday night into Sunday the secondary will become the main storm. The storm will bring rain to southwestern Pennsylvania Friday late morning/ early afternoon. The rain will stick around for most of Friday, then a change over to a mix/snow is likely later Friday night and Saturday. This will progress north and east through Saturday into the first part of Sunday. Then on Sunday a northwest flow will usher in colder and very windy conditions.

    The storms main impact will be felt Friday night into Sunday morning for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The storm last weekend was a fast mover, this one will not be. Most of us will see conditions improve Sunday, but snow could linger for Maine into Monday morning.

    Along the Coast and the major cities of the I-95 Corridor (not sure about Boston) it is still looking like a predominantly rain/mix event, with most likely a bit of snow on the back side. The same can be said for for lower elevational areas of Northwest New Jersey, and coastal and southernmost Maine for Sunday. Those in the interior areas have a good chance for snow. Those with the best chance of seeing 4+ inches will be across Northeast Pennsylvania, back toward State College, then heading into Northwest Pennsylvania, most of New York State and Northern and Central New England. Those higher elevations will fair the best; with higher elevations Like the Poconos, Catskills, Adirondacks back into the Tug Hill, Greens into the Berkshires and Whites seeing several inches of snow.

  5. #5
    Our storm is pushing away from the Lakes into Canada. So the Northeast will see things calm down. The same general pattern we’ve been in for the last 3 weeks continues. Away from the Great Lakes, it will be a fairly tranquil week, until we approach the weekend.

    We are about to enter February; for those south of Northern New England and northern New York State, winter has been lack luster. These same areas, going forward could end up with the same general idea of little or no accumulating snowstorms. I still think we will see another cold outbreak during the first part of February. But at this point, I have to ask myself, will areas near the I-95 and closer to the coast see a lot of accumulation snowfall for the rest of this winter? It is possible, but time might not be on their side.

    This week we will see low pressure drop out of the Rockies that will move into the Gulf States. From here, the track is tricky. The other day I talked about the upper level jet pattern.

    Here is a look at the GFS showing its Idea for the Jet pattern. The question is still there, will we see a phase between the northern and southern jet. Between a possible phase, timing, and extent of cold air. Will be the deciding factors on P-type and who sees what, from the low pressure that move up the East Coast next weekend. Could it be the Miller A storm that some of y’all have wanted? Maybe. The models are going back and forth. The odds look to be 50/50 for a weekend snowstorm. But right now, I don’t see this becoming a major deal due to upper air dynamics and available cold air. We will see!

    Images courtesy of Pivotal Weather

  6. #6
    Getting better let's not jinx anything

    "Today we have a very weak disturbance moving overhead, which is kicking off precipitation here and there. We also have a bit of lake effect going on downwind of the Great Lakes.

    Temperatures will slowly drop each day until Friday, then temperatures will start to climb. But all in all, this will be a fairly quiet and dry workweek, with moderately cold temperatures (not a torch, just close to seasonal)

    As we get into the 2nd half of this week. We will see low pressure drop south and east out of the Rockies; there will be a piece of energy in a shortwave in the northern stream dropping into the upper Plains. As the southern low develops along the Gulf, it remains to be seen if we will see the streams phase (interact) or if the northern energy keeps the southern low to the south with no phase between the two. If the southern low is suppressed to the south, it will just end up going out to sea. But if it phases it will come up the East Coast, and possibly develop into a Miller A nor’easter. A Miller A consist of just one primary low that moves out of the gulf then move up Coast as it develops, typically it moves east of New Jersey and south of Long Island. A Miller B is a complex storm that has an inland primary that transfers to the coast, were a second storm will develop and become the primary. Temperatures over the weekend, will be marginal at best. Without a deep cold pool, figuring out snow/rain will be difficult.

    If you want to know more about types of storms that impact the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. Here is a blog post I did awhile back.

    https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2014/01...at-impact.html

    I’m still expecting a transition to a colder pattern has we get into February. I’ve been talking about this cool down for a few weeks now, you can go back and read my post talking about the evolving solution.

  7. #7
    Welcome to the end of January. There is no doubt that January was a torch. For most of us, it will generally rank within the top 10 to top 5 warmest January's, depending on where you are.

    Well we made it to Friday. The week has been uneventful. But next week will see things become a bit more active.

    Later today/tonight low pressure will form off the Carolina Coast. This will track well south and east of the Mid Atlantic Coast and stay south of the southern New England Coast as it heads out to sea. For Saturday, those along the MAC and I-95 could see a bit of rain, with areas north of the Mason Dixson line in PA seeing a little snow/mix. It’s possible for a few spots to see some freezing rain. Around New York City and the lower Hudson Valley, as well as Long Island, there could be some rain as well. Most of New York State and New England should stay dry, but a few showers could pop up closer to the coast, and especially for the Cape and Offshore Islands. For interior areas widespread rain/mix/ wet snow showers are possible.

    A clipper type system will bring a chance for rain/snow showers for Saturday night into Sunday night. Parts of northern New York State and northern New England could see a bit of accumulation, especially in the higher elevations where 1-3 inches of snow would be possible.

    Behind the clipper temperatures will rebound for the first part of next week. High pressure builds in and brings us more quiet weather early next week. Monday through Wednesday will see well above average temperatures, then temperatures will start to moderate Thursday and heading into next weekend. By Wednesday, a slow-moving cold front will move into the region. The front looks to stall close to or over New England. Temperatures profiles will be colder behind the frontal boundary. Where the front actually stalls will determine who sees what. We will see several waves of low pressure move along the front, keeping the second half of next week and next weekend unsettled. Rain/mix/snow, with a possibility for at least some freezing rain will be with us during the second half of next week. Again, who sees what will be determined by the frontal location.

  8. #8
    Ground Hog Day is tomorrow, maybe Punxsutawney can do a better job than most of us have done this winter. The Super bowl is also tomorrow so if you’re going to or having a party have fun.

    Today is basically quiet. We have the system to our South and West, and the little clipper system moving into the Great Lakes. I’ve been talking about these for a few days now, they are what I consider nuisance disturbances, so I think I’ve covered them enough.

    This coming week

    Today has the feel of early spring in the air; the spring like feel will extend into Tuesday, we will see a dusting to 3 inches or so later today and tomorrow across extreme northern Pennsylvania, Northwest New Jersey, much of New York State, and Northern into Central New England.
    later Tuesday into the coming weekend, across northern New York State and Northern into Central New England, there is a good likelihood for Snow /sleet/freezing rain from. Everyone else it is most likely a mix/mainly rain event. But exactly who sees what will depend on exactly where the front stalls out. Those areas that see mostly snow could end up seeing quite a bit, as several disturbances move along the frontal boundary for the 2nd half of next week.

    Looking ahead

    Positive TNH pattern (I explained what the TNH is a couple of weeks back), with an undercutting Jet is usually a good indication of a cold and active snowy setup. But January certainly wasn’t like that. The first half of February is beginning to look iffy too.

    The PNA has been positive, but it is looking to go negative again, this would indicate more of a likelihood of ridging in the East. The NAO is looking to go strongly positive (almost off the chart positive) this indicates a strong likelihood of no upstream blocking; as a result, the pattern becomes fast and zonal.

    The EPO is heading for neutral, then it is forecast to turn strongly negative. The WPO is looking to go moderately negative as well. This is a signal for colder air trying to push out of Northwest Canada and Alaska. But as I’ve said, the MJO looks to want to go back into phases 5 and 6, so how strong that negatively trend for the EPO is going to be, is in question.

    So, for now the cold signal is split in half. But that’s better odds than we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks. The ensembles have been trending colder, but the models track record hasn’t been that great lately, but to be fair neither has mine. The pattern has adjusted toward my ideas, when I said it would happen, but not nearly to the extent that I thought would happen. As we get toward Mid-February will that arctic air finely break loose. I strongly believe it well. But I have to temper my ideas, based on the factors I’ve listed above and how the entire winter pattern has unfolded so far.

  9. #9
    I liked her forecasts when I was on Facebook, before making the excellent decision to leave the toxic online bullshit echo chamber of narcissistic virtue signalling and varied forms of posturing. Then you realize your data is getting sold to China and other bidders. As Mark Zuckerberg said years ago "They trust me. Dumb fucks!"

    Anyway... does she have a normal website where I can keep tabs?
    2019/2020 season

    Berkshire East [12/20, 1/7, 1/10, 1/22, 1/24]
    Bretton Woods [1/3, 1/30]
    Cannon [2/19]
    Gunstock [1/2]
    Mad River Glen [1/29, 2/11]
    Magic [3/1, 3/8]
    Mount Snow [11/14, 11/21, 12/2]
    Pico [2/23]
    Smugglers Notch [2/12]
    Wachusett [12/16]

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by bdfreetuna View Post
    I liked her forecasts when I was on Facebook, before making the excellent decision to leave the toxic online bullshit echo chamber of narcissistic virtue signalling and varied forms of posturing. Then you realize your data is getting sold to China and other bidders. As Mark Zuckerberg said years ago "They trust me. Dumb fucks!"

    Anyway... does she have a normal website where I can keep tabs?
    Yes
    https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/?m=1

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