1/12 Storm Discussion Thread

[HowieT2]

FIS Lionel Hutz coming onboard:

That's what I'm talking about!

 

[billski]

Bring it on! Hoping to be at Magic Sat AM looking to open up some new terrain!

If it's heavy, and it looks like it will be, Magic will get the base-builder to open trails like nutz!

 

[BenedictGomez]

Matt Noyes:
Early to make certain calls on Thu storm, esp given northwest trend of projected storm tracks this year, but 6-12" Northern NewEng possible

Lets conservatively assume the low end of 6 to 8 inches. With great snowmaking temps all this week, plus the fresh on top of that, I dont think it's outrageous to suggest places like Smuggs, Jay, and Stowe could be near 100% open on Saturday.

Not enough to drop the ropes on something really steep like Upper Liftline at Smuggs or Starr at Stowe, but probably dang-near everything else.

 

[billski]

Prelim

The weather wonks over at americanwx have stuck their necks out with a VERY Preliminary forecast.

Confidence in this is growing. Models are in agreement.

 

[WinnChill]

Yeah, I kinda like the southern resorts with southeast facing slopes (Okemo/Mt Snow/Bromley/Sunday River) being favored and can dig the southern Whites getting the most so far (Waterville/Gunstock). We're still hovering around half a foot as a good starting point.

 

[St. Bear]

Yeah, I kinda like the southern resorts with southeast facing slopes (Okemo/Mt Snow/Bromley/Sunday River) being favored and can dig the southern Whites getting the most so far (Waterville/Gunstock). We're still hovering around half a foot as a good starting point.

Would you say they're more likely for higher overall totals, but some mixing, and the northern resorts would be mainly all snow, but lower totals?

 

[WinnChill]

Would you say they're more likely for higher overall totals, but some mixing, and the northern resorts would be mainly all snow, but lower totals?

Pretty much--six of one/half dozen of the other. Mixing mostly S NH, S VT. Will see how much it wavers next day or two.

 

[Tooth]

Thanks WinnChill. You are the man.

 

[BenedictGomez]

TWC seems to think only NNE will get the really good stuff, with everyone else getting rain and rain/snow mix. Hopefully they're failing to take into account elevation in this report.

- Rain will fall across the northern Mid-Atlantic, southern New York and coastal southern New England.
- Interior southern New England will deal with snow quickly changing to sleet and freezing rain and then for Connecticut and Rhode Island plain rain.
- For east-central and northern New York, any initial snow will change to freezing rain or wintry mix.
- For northern New England, most of this storm could be in the form of snow. The southern parts of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine may see some mixing and coastal New Hampshire and coastal southern Maine may ease above freezing with a change to plain rain.
- Significant 6-inch-or-greater snow accumulations are possible over northern New England.
- Blustery colder air follows the storm for the central and East.
- Lake-effect snow for the Great Lakes region will rev up late week.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Then there's this guy, whose really trying to rain (no pun intended) on our parade.

The forecast model trends are indicating a weaker storm, which could have the following ramifications:

Thursday:

1. Marginally colder air hangs on longer over the North Country on Thursday, resulting in a longer duration of wintery precipitation (snow, sleet and freezing rain).

2. Probably less precipitation due to less moisture transport. Despite the marginally cold air hanging on longer, that would still make a significant snowfall (6+ inches) unlikely.

Friday: Reduced potential for crazy lake effect snow in the Western Adirondacks. But very cold air passing over near-record warm Lake Ontario cannot be ignored!

http://www.adirondackweathersite.com/2012/01/trends-for-thursday-friday.html

 

[Nick]

I love that line, "predicting sick days".

 

[Tooth]

NNE bingo. Friday looks nice too.

 

[ScottySkis]

Then there's this guy, whose really trying to rain (no pun intended) on our parade.



http://www.adirondackweathersite.com/2012/01/trends-for-thursday-friday.html

no no no dont want to hear that

 

[billski]

Then there's this guy, whose really trying to rain (no pun intended) on our parade.



http://www.adirondackweathersite.com/2012/01/trends-for-thursday-friday.html

His snowplow contractor must have raised the rates. :roll:

 

[billski]

Gray Maine NWS checks in

 

[Tooth]

billski.... I have been using your weather website a ton. Thank you very much.

 

[billski]

billski.... I have been using your weather website a ton. Thank you very much.

So am I!
make sure you refresh the maps you go to from a link. They are changing hourly..

 

[Tooth]

Will do. Again, thank you. You have no idea how much I love this stuff. LOL.

 

[billski]

BTW, The NWS Gray Maine WFO is always ultra-conservative, a bit sleepy and the last ones to weigh in. I guess that way they get to spend more time ice fishing

 

[BenedictGomez]

I've wasted the last few hours checking in on as many weather sites, outlets, and individual forecasts as humanly possible.

I've seen everything from Wednesday night through Thursday will be mostly all mixed precip with rain and sleet, to NNE could get walloped with up to 18 inches of snow (although only FIS said 18 is possible). There seem to be more folks on the the negative side saying 6 inches is about as much as they'd hope for, but there are several who think 6-12 is a possibility (fingers crossed).

This all only confirms what I already knew. Man is not yet sophisticated enough to predict the weather. LOL. This 'event" is less than 30 hours away for God's sake.