1/12 Storm Discussion Thread

[hammer]

Thanks River. I don't mean to come off crabby but I'm worried about a big time bust on this--plus the coffee is wearing off already.

What's the confidence of a pattern shift with this storm? Seems like many are getting excited about the potential for a few inches of snow but what I really want to see is an end to the persistent above-average temps...

 

[billski]

Source

 

[billski]

Total snowfall forecast, NWS collected

 

[WinnChill]

Source

That looks about right. That southeasterly flow should enhance Loon/Waterville through Attitash/Sunday River/Sugarloaf. Then Friday, the favorable area should shift towards southern VT through the southern Whites.

 

[WinnChill]

What's the confidence of a pattern shift with this storm? Seems like many are getting excited about the potential for a few inches of snow but what I really want to see is an end to the persistent above-average temps...

Confidence in the storm is one thing--so far, confidence in accumulations will usually be low with any kind of mixing event such as Thursday....we're confident mixing will occur, but to what degree is questionable which affects accumulations dramatically.

Then there's the overall pattern shift. We're gradually working into a more favorable pattern as far as temps are concerned--temps should stabilize and stay seasonably cold the rest of this month. Storm tracks could be better--still somewhat through the region rather than curling just south of the region--still some mixing events possible but should be minimized. Hope that helps.

 

[hammer]

Confidence in the storm is one thing--so far, confidence in accumulations will usually be low with any kind of mixing event such as Thursday....we're confident mixing will occur, but to what degree is questionable which affects accumulations dramatically.

Then there's the overall pattern shift. We're gradually working into a more favorable pattern as far as temps are concerned--temps should stabilize and stay seasonably cold the rest of this month. Storm tracks could be better--still somewhat through the region rather than curling just south of the region--still some mixing events possible but should be minimized. Hope that helps.

That would be good...hopefully we will avoid a "January thaw" this year.

 

[gladerider]

Heading up to Whiteface for the weekend Friday evening. What do you think will happen in the Northern ADK? Thanx.

 

[WinnChill]

Heading up to Whiteface for the weekend Friday evening. What do you think will happen in the Northern ADK? Thanx.

Rough estimate for now (gotta head out for a bit)--less precip but further away from mixing Thurs--prob a few inches. Friday another few inches possible...so ballparking about half a foot total. I'll check back later after looking into it a bit more.

 

[BenedictGomez]

How about quit making all forecasters out to be a bunch of idiots.

Good grief, chill out (no pun intended) for heaven sake . No one's making "all forecasters out to be a bunch of idiots".

And of course, no one remembers when you are right +90% of the time either.

Well if I'm admittedly guilty of hyperbole, that's exaggeration there as well. The science of weather prediction isn't to the point where they're even anywhere near close to getting "90%" of these storm events right. And if there's a subportion of the population that's keenly aware of this fact, it's skiers/boarders.

 

[ScottySkis]

Source

i like that map

 

[billski]

Good grief, chill out (no pun intended) for heaven sake . No one's making "all forecasters out to be a bunch of idiots".



Well if I'm admittedly guilty of hyperbole, that's exaggeration there as well. The science of weather prediction isn't to the point where they're even anywhere near close to getting "90%" of these storm events right. And if there's a subportion of the population that's keenly aware of this fact, it's skiers/boarders.

Just gimmie the #@$%#^&^*^&* snow!
anywhere, any timer

 

[Glenn]

A bit of snow before a holiday weekend would be pefect for a lot of areas. I hope it happens!

 

[ScottySkis]

Me either. How about quit making all forecasters out to be a bunch of idiots. If it was as easy as looking at a single index--like an NAO as your signature suggests--everyone could do it. It's a very difficult forecast--we're trying.

I watch these weather guys are great. At predictions for us and Mr winn has helped me have some great powder days for sure

 

[gladerider]

Rough estimate for now (gotta head out for a bit)--less precip but further away from mixing Thurs--prob a few inches. Friday another few inches possible...so ballparking about half a foot total. I'll check back later after looking into it a bit more.

thanks winnchill

 

[from_the_NEK]

I'm really hoping this doesn't turn into a half snow/half freezing rain event.

 

[riverc0il]

The science of weather prediction isn't to the point where they're even anywhere near close to getting "90%" of these storm events right.

I never said 90% of storm events.

 

[billski]

Reporting in from base camp Lyndon. Motels are booked solid with skiers. Maybe 1" snow on Terra firma presently. C
ie


Alien convoys of Electric. Recovery vehicles hdeuce trucks have been identified by our forward spotters. Pre positioning for operation Snowbound beginning at 0900
double assault fire arms loaded and ready. Hill 21 (known locally as Burke Mtn) is the primary objective.
Sgt. Landslide reporting 2009 hours


Sgt.

 

[billski]

Thurs does. Not appear to be a ski day. Big honkin winds until thurs night

 

[riverc0il]

Thurs does. Not appear to be a ski day. Big honkin winds until thurs night

Dude... Poma. Of course it is a ski day!

 

[BenedictGomez]

Thurs does. Not appear to be a ski day. Big honkin winds until thurs night

Some are calling for strong winds for NVT Saturday and Sunday too. Hopefully that isnt so.