1/26 - 27 Storm Discussion Thread

[gmcunni]

If it is a wed storm, I may try to pre-position Tues night. If it is a tues or thurs storm I may miss it altogethor unless it is serious enough to close businesses. WED please.

blocked my calendar for Wed and told the wife i'd be driving north Tuesday night. fingers crossed for this one.

 

[SKIQUATTRO]

i'm leaving my schedule very loose next week....

 

[Greg]

I would imagine the skiing down there in Conn. is about as good as it ever gets.

Put it this way. Would you guess this is CT?

 

[billski]

Put it this way. Would you guess this is CT?

Hot Damn! I'll bet Yawgoo has too much snow for it's vertical. What a problem!

 

[Euler]

NWS ALY office forecaster is getting dramatic for this far out:

...AND WE
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF A BLOCKBUSTER WINTER STORM...

AND IF IT MATERIALIZES WE MAY
NEED YARD STICKS TO MEASURE THE SNOWFALL...

Fingers crossed!

 

[snoseek]

Wow! That looks AWESOME!

 

[gmcunni]

Fingers crossed!

+1

 

[St. Bear]

NWS ALY office forecaster is getting dramatic for this far out:


Fingers crossed!

NWS PHI isn't as exuberant.

THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD,
POSSIBLY BRINGING OUR REGION ANOTHER WINTER STORM FOR LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW IN OUR
REGION, WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

 

[billski]

I smell a

• Plow-able Event
• Multiple Sick Day
• Extended Absence
• Prohibited Travel Conditions

in the making.

Rush all Honey-do projects to completion and postpone all critical events.

Emergency supplies should include

• Energy Bars
• Wax and Waxing Iron
• Vouchers
• Helmet
• Shovel
• Broom
• Weather Radio
• Beer
• Steel-edged Boards, preferably with mounting brackets
• Winter boots
• Twinkies
• Insulated pants

 

[billski]

NWS PHI isn't as exuberant.

then again, Burlington is very excited but metered with their words:

"
THE SOONER THE SYSTEM CUTS-OFF THE BETTER CHANCE THAT IT REACHES ITS
MAX INTENSITY AND SLIDES FURTHER SE OF COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE LATEST (12Z) GFS IS HINTING AT THIS WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER
MODELS ARE DELIVERING A CLOSER...MORE PROMISING STORM.

IF PREVIOUS STORMS THIS SEASON ARE ANY INDICATION...IT WILL BE THE
"MISSED IT BY THAT MUCH" SCENARIO. THE TIMING WOULD LIKELY BE WED
INTO THURSDAY."

Kinda odd, ALY is usually the most conservative of the bunch..

 

[Glenn]

Quote from NWS Albany: FTW!

WE KEPT THE PCPN...AS SNOW...AND IF IT MATERIALIZES WE MAY
NEED YARD STICKS TO MEASURE THE SNOWFALL...SINCE A TREMENDOUS
MOISTURE FETCH IS EXPECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC.

 

[billski]

Quote from NWS Albany: FTW!

WE KEPT THE PCPN...AS SNOW...AND IF IT MATERIALIZES WE MAY
NEED YARD STICKS TO MEASURE THE SNOWFALL...SINCE A TREMENDOUS
MOISTURE FETCH IS EXPECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC.

Is that the GREAT SUCKING SOUND??

 

[billski]

FIS: "Trough and storm threats all through out the next 10 days."

Snowforecast.com: "Wednesday--We've been watching yet another potential storm pulls in from the south--this could slow up and deliver quite a blow"

Josh Fox:"The cold will relent next week and we will shift our focus to a major east coast system which will evolve out of the massive cold air damming signature. This system has many question marks but for Vermont it remains mostly a "snow or no" during the middle of next week. More on this tomorrow. "

AWX: "Whenever the models try to warm us up, some other index keeps us cold. It's like the models have stopped trying...knowing we're in an unreal winter...one that is rare and only happens a few times in a long life."

Even Weather channel is getting into the act:
"Peak storm impact in Northeast: Late Tuesday through early Thursday

• It is far too soon to precisely forecast snow/ice totals for any given city/location.
  
• However, this storm has the potential to dump at least 1 foot of snow over a large swath of the Northeast, with much higher totals exceeding 20" in spots.
  
• High winds, downed trees/powerlines, and power outages are expected Wednesday into Thursday, particularly near the coast."

Even Accuweather is getting onboard with their hyperbole:

Next Week's Snowstorm Is a Big Deal

"More and more signs are pointing toward a major storm along much of the Atlantic Seaboard next week, meaning a wind-whipped snow for some areas and wind-driven rain for others.
The storm could rank right up there with the Christmas Weekend Blizzard and could hit part of the same area, or different areas farther inland. No matter what, it looks like a "big deal."


Now I'm getting excited!

​

 

[UVSHTSTRM]

FIS: "Trough and storm threats all through out the next 10 days."

Snowforecast.com: "Wednesday--We've been watching yet another potential storm pulls in from the south--this could slow up and deliver quite a blow"

Josh Fox:"The cold will relent next week and we will shift our focus to a major east coast system which will evolve out of the massive cold air damming signature. This system has many question marks but for Vermont it remains mostly a "snow or no" during the middle of next week. More on this tomorrow. "

AWX: "Whenever the models try to warm us up, some other index keeps us cold. It's like the models have stopped trying...knowing we're in an unreal winter...one that is rare and only happens a few times in a long life."

Even Weather channel is getting into the act:
"Peak storm impact in Northeast: Late Tuesday through early Thursday

• It is far too soon to precisely forecast snow/ice totals for any given city/location.
  
• However, this storm has the potential to dump at least 1 foot of snow over a large swath of the Northeast, with much higher totals exceeding 20" in spots.
  
• High winds, downed trees/powerlines, and power outages are expected Wednesday into Thursday, particularly near the coast."

Even Accuweather is getting onboard with their hyperbole:

Next Week's Snowstorm Is a Big Deal

"More and more signs are pointing toward a major storm along much of the Atlantic Seaboard next week, meaning a wind-whipped snow for some areas and wind-driven rain for others.
The storm could rank right up there with the Christmas Weekend Blizzard and could hit part of the same area, or different areas farther inland. No matter what, it looks like a "big deal."


Now I'm getting excited!

​

Sounds like good stuff to sell ad space/time.:wink:

 

[St. Bear]

Wunder Blog:

While the threat is several days away, current climatology and guidance supports a very high threat of a large storm system over the eastern United States in this time frame. Whether it is rain or snow, there appears to be a large amount of moisture involved with ECMWF QPF up to 4in in northern Delaware and southeastern Pennsylvania. I know many are critical of predictions of storms well in advance, but meteorology is about understanding the synoptic setup that leads to the development of these storms. Watching the evolution of this situation will be very interesting and I am becoming increasingly enthused for those well inland. Even along the coast heavy rain and high winds are possible with a western storm track so threats will be high with any storm scenario. Stay tuned for updates throughout the weekend. For now if I had to make a forecast, this would be the precipitation scenario map.

Bad for metro areas, good for ski areas.

 

[billski]

A picture of great beauty:

 

[billski]

Fun and no profit with models
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

Some pretty impressive chit days 7&8

 

[snoseek]

Well if this actually happens then I'm definately taking wed/thursday off, or better yet just starting my vacation 5 days early and skiing here before flying out next sunday. Vacation is on my dime and I could care less. Need a couple more days, this storm could go either way at this point.

 

[abc]

Nooooo!

I'm flying out (to the Rockies) on Wed.

Let it be rain in the south (lower Hudson valley). MA and NH can have the POW

 

[Bostonian]

Wooooot! I am stoked for this!