RootDKJ
New member
Puking right now in my part of Jersey
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1/26 - 27 Storm Discussion Thread
- Thread starter Greg
- Start date
billski
Active member
As long as the forecasting uncertainty is clearly communicated, I'm good. I just seems the media describes "snow" without fully communicating the probability. If I see a probability of 30%, I say "ho hum". If the prob. is 90%, I pay attention.
I'm my business, uncertainty is a fact of life. Nothing wrong with it, but you don't want to bury your head and ignore it. It all comes down to a better informed public. The other problem with the public is that they want two-sentence forecasts! For outdoor sports-people, the weather IS important, regardless of the season.
FYI...we were able to fix our glitch on Wed forecast. Funny, the editor didn't like "nor'easter" in the text and kept giving me errors. It's all updated now and we tried to reflect that Wed looks dry for the most part with the snow arriving late PM/overnight.
billski
Active member
NWS discussion highlights:
Suggests a coastal hugging snow event, barely clipping SVT, then covering SNH and So. Maine.
Boston:
"
25/00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR TRACKS OF
A LOW PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT STILL DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY WITH THEIR TIMING. CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THINKING THE BRUNT OF THIS EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
WANTED TO PAD THE START AND ENDING
THINKING THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST OF MA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF RI AND PERHAPS NORTHERN
CT AS WELL. HOW LONG THIS LASTS IS STILL IN DOUBT. THAT SAID...DO
THINK SUFFICIENT COLD AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY EVENING TO CHANGE ALL
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING."
Albany talks with Boston:
"
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A "BULLET BURN" IN FCA. LARGE AREAS WILL
GET NOTHING OR LIGHT SNOW...N EXTENT OF SNOW WILL BE BENNINGTON
VT...ALB...DELAWARE CO NY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS A TAD NORTH OF THIS
LINE REFLECTING THE ECMWF...WITH NOTHING FURTHER N. IMPACTS IN FCA
WILL BE FROM ALBANY S & E AND EVEN THERE ITS A HIGH END ADVISORY
EVENT WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THIS
STORMS MAJOR IMPACTS WILL BE SOUTH OF FCA. WILL BLEND THE THREE
MODEL QPFS. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO 12X. THERE WILL
BE LITTLE ENHANCEMENT FROM SNOW GROWTH OR OTHER MESO SCALE
FORCINGS. MOST AREAS N & W OF ALBANY WILL SEE LITTLE ACCUMULATING
SNOW...WHILE AT THE TOP END THERE COULD BE 8 INCH AMOUNTS IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY. AFTER COLLABORATION W/TAUNTON...WILL HOIST A WS
WATCH FOR LITCHFIELD."
New York expects more: (wed)
"
SINCE CONFIDENCE OF REACHING 6 INCHES OF SNOW...IS AT LEAST 50
PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT...MOST OF THE LOWER HUDSON
COUNTY AND WESTERN PASSAIC...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THESE AREAS. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH LATER
TODAY...BUT THE DURATION AND TIMING OF THE MIXED PRECIP IS WHAT IS
TROUBLING. TOTAL QPF IS ALSO STILL UNCERTAIN...SEE HYDRO SECTION
FOR DETAILS.
WAA PRECIP SHOULD RUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON WED.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN THE
BEST TIMING FOR THE MIX IS BETWEEN 7PM AND 1AM. EVENING RUSH ON
WED AND THU MORNING COULD BE TREACHEROUS. COLD AIR RUSHES BACK IN
ON A N-NW FLOW AS THE STORM DEPARTS CHANGING THE PRECIP BACK TO
ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. IT APPEARS THAT IF WARNING
CRITERIA WILL BE MET AT THE COAST...IT WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE STORM WHEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECT TO OCCUR...AGAIN
BETWEEN 7PM AND 1AM...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW."
Philly says:
"
IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH MOST OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND DELAWARE WOULD BE
WARMING TO THE POINT WHERE SNOWFLAKE PRODUCTION WOULD BECOME
DIFFICULT.
FURTHER NORTHWEST...THE COLUMN STARTS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT ALL
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WARM LAYER AROUND 6000 FEET...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SLEET AS WELL. SO...FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE
QPF NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA COULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
AND SLEET. AT THIS JUNCTURE...THE SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS WOULD LOOK
TO BE LESS THAN 4 INCHES THROUGH DUSK WEDNESDAY."
Burlington Says:
"
...BUT IT LOOKS AS IF ANY
REAL THREAT OF SNOW HOLDS OFF TILL AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST VERMONT MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY
SNOW WITH THIS EVENT."
Gray Maine says:
THIS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER GOOD DUMP OF SNOW FOR
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
COMING AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE 1ST HALF OF THURSDAY.
WITH MODEL DIFFS PERSISTING WILL BE HOLDING OFF ON ANY WATCHES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
Suggests a coastal hugging snow event, barely clipping SVT, then covering SNH and So. Maine.
Boston:
"
25/00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR TRACKS OF
A LOW PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT STILL DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY WITH THEIR TIMING. CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THINKING THE BRUNT OF THIS EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
WANTED TO PAD THE START AND ENDING
THINKING THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST OF MA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF RI AND PERHAPS NORTHERN
CT AS WELL. HOW LONG THIS LASTS IS STILL IN DOUBT. THAT SAID...DO
THINK SUFFICIENT COLD AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY EVENING TO CHANGE ALL
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING."
Albany talks with Boston:
"
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A "BULLET BURN" IN FCA. LARGE AREAS WILL
GET NOTHING OR LIGHT SNOW...N EXTENT OF SNOW WILL BE BENNINGTON
VT...ALB...DELAWARE CO NY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS A TAD NORTH OF THIS
LINE REFLECTING THE ECMWF...WITH NOTHING FURTHER N. IMPACTS IN FCA
WILL BE FROM ALBANY S & E AND EVEN THERE ITS A HIGH END ADVISORY
EVENT WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THIS
STORMS MAJOR IMPACTS WILL BE SOUTH OF FCA. WILL BLEND THE THREE
MODEL QPFS. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO 12X. THERE WILL
BE LITTLE ENHANCEMENT FROM SNOW GROWTH OR OTHER MESO SCALE
FORCINGS. MOST AREAS N & W OF ALBANY WILL SEE LITTLE ACCUMULATING
SNOW...WHILE AT THE TOP END THERE COULD BE 8 INCH AMOUNTS IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY. AFTER COLLABORATION W/TAUNTON...WILL HOIST A WS
WATCH FOR LITCHFIELD."
New York expects more: (wed)
"
SINCE CONFIDENCE OF REACHING 6 INCHES OF SNOW...IS AT LEAST 50
PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT...MOST OF THE LOWER HUDSON
COUNTY AND WESTERN PASSAIC...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THESE AREAS. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH LATER
TODAY...BUT THE DURATION AND TIMING OF THE MIXED PRECIP IS WHAT IS
TROUBLING. TOTAL QPF IS ALSO STILL UNCERTAIN...SEE HYDRO SECTION
FOR DETAILS.
WAA PRECIP SHOULD RUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON WED.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN THE
BEST TIMING FOR THE MIX IS BETWEEN 7PM AND 1AM. EVENING RUSH ON
WED AND THU MORNING COULD BE TREACHEROUS. COLD AIR RUSHES BACK IN
ON A N-NW FLOW AS THE STORM DEPARTS CHANGING THE PRECIP BACK TO
ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. IT APPEARS THAT IF WARNING
CRITERIA WILL BE MET AT THE COAST...IT WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE STORM WHEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECT TO OCCUR...AGAIN
BETWEEN 7PM AND 1AM...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW."
Philly says:
"
IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH MOST OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND DELAWARE WOULD BE
WARMING TO THE POINT WHERE SNOWFLAKE PRODUCTION WOULD BECOME
DIFFICULT.
FURTHER NORTHWEST...THE COLUMN STARTS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT ALL
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WARM LAYER AROUND 6000 FEET...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SLEET AS WELL. SO...FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE
QPF NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA COULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
AND SLEET. AT THIS JUNCTURE...THE SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS WOULD LOOK
TO BE LESS THAN 4 INCHES THROUGH DUSK WEDNESDAY."
Burlington Says:
"
...BUT IT LOOKS AS IF ANY
REAL THREAT OF SNOW HOLDS OFF TILL AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST VERMONT MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY
SNOW WITH THIS EVENT."
Gray Maine says:
THIS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER GOOD DUMP OF SNOW FOR
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
COMING AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE 1ST HALF OF THURSDAY.
WITH MODEL DIFFS PERSISTING WILL BE HOLDING OFF ON ANY WATCHES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
Last edited:
billski
Active member
BOS-CT gets nailed again. They had to come down the street yesterday with a mega-snow blower, the streets have gotten pretty narrow. The cool thing about this blower is that it shoots it a good 15-20 feet. Now I have piles of garbage and sand in my yard! 
It WILL wait until after ski season!
It WILL wait until after ski season!
eek! 1-4"! That's a bummer. But suddenly, the snow on Saturday looks promising.....
I know. It's that dreaded sharp cutoff on the northwestern edge of this system. Saturday's Clipper has less moisture (fluffier though) but more areal coverage.
UVSHTSTRM
New member
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- Messages
- 879
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What a bust for Centeral and Northern New England!
billski
Active member
We can make up for it with 1-2" per day...
http://www.snocountry.com/index.php/ski-reports/vermont.html
billski
Active member
Maybe a little upslope potential? the winds do shift northerly by thursday...
Yep! N VT should do ok...may have to tweak their accumulations a bit but they should get a little love by then.
psyflyer
New member
Started snowing about 1.5 hours ago on Burke Mt. We have about 1 inch on the ground and its coming down nicely. Hoping for a similar event as the previous 2 where we were forecast with no or little snow but eventually got a foot. Bring it!
4aprice
Well-known member
I expected a dusting and got about 1.5 inches. Enough to use the snow blower to clear the driveway. Kids had school today and the roads were worse then Friday when they didn't have school. Hope the Pocono's got a good shot.
Alex
Lake Hopatcong, NJ
- Joined
- Jul 1, 2001
- Messages
- 31,154
- Points
- 0
Once again, Sundown FTW!
WJenness
Active member
gmcunni
Active member
Thursday, anyone? i will have WFL (lodge) but can maybe get some runs in right @ 9
what time does the lodge open on weekdays?
4aprice
Well-known member
RootDKJ
New member
The winter storm watch is now in effect from late tonight through
thursday morning.
* precipitation type: Snow...with only a brief period of any sleet
and freezing rain wednesday afternoon.
* accumulations: 6 inches or more of snow...with possibly a
coating of ice possible embedded in the event...during the
daylight hours.
* timing: Snow will probably begin between 8 am and noon...with
the heaviest snow expected between 5 pm and midnight.
* impacts: The wednesday evening commute should be affected as
accumulating snow falls. The thursday morning commute could also
be affected because of residual cleanup of wednesdays snowfall.
* confidence: Confidence on snowfall amounts at or above 6 inches
in the poconos and far northwest new jersey is a little less
than yesterday due to a southeastward shift in storm evolution.
Confidence from allentown to trenton for a substantial winter
event is above average.
thursday morning.
* precipitation type: Snow...with only a brief period of any sleet
and freezing rain wednesday afternoon.
* accumulations: 6 inches or more of snow...with possibly a
coating of ice possible embedded in the event...during the
daylight hours.
* timing: Snow will probably begin between 8 am and noon...with
the heaviest snow expected between 5 pm and midnight.
* impacts: The wednesday evening commute should be affected as
accumulating snow falls. The thursday morning commute could also
be affected because of residual cleanup of wednesdays snowfall.
* confidence: Confidence on snowfall amounts at or above 6 inches
in the poconos and far northwest new jersey is a little less
than yesterday due to a southeastward shift in storm evolution.
Confidence from allentown to trenton for a substantial winter
event is above average.
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