12/21 Storm Speculation

[ScottySkis]

No r word that worse then f bomb on this forum f the rain lol.

 

[lstone84]

Awwww Benny Gomez is mad again


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[lstone84]

Benny Gomez says 'this is why we don't create storm threads 168 hours in advance' yet was more than happy to speculate about it himself...Benny G just can't resist chiming in when I post. Love it


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[lstone84]

And I think 'no support' is a little inaccurate bulldog. All the mets I follow have been discussing the poss. of a storm for just as long. The upgraded GPS was showing it. 500mb was supporting a storm. Etc. The mets certainly know a lot more than anyone I've heard on here...myself included


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[Boston Bulldog]

And I think 'no support' is a little inaccurate bulldog. All the mets I follow have been discussing the poss. of a storm for just as long. The upgraded GPS was showing it. 500mb was supporting a storm. Etc. The mets certainly know a lot more than anyone I've heard on here...myself included


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I'm talking run to run continuity, for all models.

 

[lstone84]

Run to run within one individual model? Fair enough


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[drjeff]

This weekends small event will help set the atmospheric "table" for what looks like a more plausible, sizeable event on/around Christmas Day. If that one plays out, expect reports of record Christmas week crowds all across the Northeast. While while some here will bemoan the crowds, it would be a GREAT thing for the health of the ski industry and the communities surrounding the ski areas

 

[lstone84]

Except right now the xmas storm looks like a huge washout for all NE resorts


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[drjeff]

Except right now the xmas storm looks like a huge washout for all NE resorts


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If you believe the 168hr models

 

[andrec10]

Thats a week away. Those models will change several times before then...

 

[billski]

I'm kicking around getting up to Wildcat or Saddleback Sun, Mon or Tuesday. Just crossing my fingers on the niar.

 

[Tin]

Looking good for Stowe and Smuggs the next few days.

 

[ScottySkis]

Any white for the Catskills or Berks?

 

[billski]

Tin, that map is a bit incongruous with the numbers. The yellow is down along the Sugarbush-MRG highway, and the yellow dot is moreso towards JP. But it's many, many hours from now. Wish I could go Fri/Sat, or I would.

 

[dlague]

I think we seem to be in a wet pattern missing colder temps by a few degrees and that pattern continues from the looks of it. Blows chunks - starting to see grass again!

 

[dlague]

Looking good for Stowe and Smuggs the next few days.

Those paltry inches will not make up for the r&^n soaking and refreeze that will take place.

 

[Boston Bulldog]

Actually the Grinch storm, if it occurs, could kick off one epic stretch of weather. Sure, it's going to pour if current modeling pans out, but the storm has the potential be so strong that it would kick the atmosphere in the pants, so to speak.

It is actually going to help form a strong -NAO and +PNA, which dumps cold air into the east and forms storms that bomb off of Nantucket. I would willingly trade a screaming Sou'easter for weeks of snow. Think Jan 2011?

Extreme warm to cold pattern transitions need something extreme, and this could be it. Remember how KU's often usher in a warm pattern, this is the opposite of that.

 

[Not Sure]

Another thread in order?
http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/to...to-impact-millions-in-midwest-east/ar-BBgVhts

 

[catsup948]

Actually the Grinch storm, if it occurs, could kick off one epic stretch of weather. Sure, it's going to pour if current modeling pans out, but the storm has the potential be so strong that it would kick the atmosphere in the pants, so to speak.

It is actually going to help form a strong -NAO and +PNA, which dumps cold air into the east and forms storms that bomb off of Nantucket. I would willingly trade a screaming Sou'easter for weeks of snow. Think Jan 2011?

Extreme warm to cold pattern transitions need something extreme, and this could be it. Remember how KU's often usher in a warm pattern, this is the opposite of that.

Well said. Hopefully we get el nino loaded southern jet interacting with the cold northern jet. Last year was brutal at times after the cutters with long stretches of bitter cold and no snow. I want to ski god dammit not worry about freezing my arse off! Snow!

 

[Abubob]

Actually the Grinch storm, if it occurs, could kick off one epic stretch of weather. Sure, it's going to pour if current modeling pans out, but the storm has the potential be so strong that it would kick the atmosphere in the pants, so to speak.

It is actually going to help form a strong -NAO and +PNA, which dumps cold air into the east and forms storms that bomb off of Nantucket. I would willingly trade a screaming Sou'easter for weeks of snow. Think Jan 2011?

Extreme warm to cold pattern transitions need something extreme, and this could be it. Remember how KU's often usher in a warm pattern, this is the opposite of that.

Seems Joshua Fox agrees with you.

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/

The trend toward a colder pattern, anchored mostly by the emergence of blocking across Alaska and the Yukon and a much looser Pacific jet remains on track around Dec 27-28. The new "colder" pattern could also be accompanied by more storminess as there remains indications of split flow in the jet. We should be able to keep this going through the early part of January as well so at least we have that.