2/19 - 2/20 Storm Discussion Thread

[polski]

Josh Fox update for the greater MRG metropolitan area: "1-2 feet with the first inches being dense and the last being fluff" as terrain-induced continues into Sat a.m.

edit: and Scott B/powderfreak weighs in saying 10-20" above 2000' along the northern Green Mtn spine, with totals depending on just how much terrain-induced falls on the back side. Possible light crust Thurs between primary and secondary lows. As for the upslope, "This will be an interesting event to watch unfold as weather and snowfall will likely vary a lot from one location to another, with aspect and elevation."

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

Josh Fox update for the greater MRG metropolitan area: "1-2 feet with the first inches being dense and the last being fluff" as terrain-induced continues into Sat a.m.

That's what I like to see..I can't even look at the accuweather forums until a storm is actually occurring because the predictions range from 1 inch to 4 feet..but I know there is going to be some nice fluff on the backside of this storm benefitting areas from Killington to Jay Peak...I freaking love Winter!!!

 

[billski]

Scott Says:

I'll be honest, haven't spent a whole lot of time looking at this one the
past two days. However, I feel like I've got a decent handle on the
situation. This could be just another moderate snowfall or it could be
huge. I do think 48-72 hour totals from Wed Night through Friday will be in
the 10-20" range above 2,000ft along the Green Mountain spine from MRG to
Jay Peak. Below that, 6-12". These totals depend on the upslope response
on Thursday afternoon, Thursday night, and Friday.

We've got another system where the primary low tracks to the west of the
area, with redevelopment in the vicinity of southern New England tracking
towards Maine. The mid and upper level lows finally capture the new surface
low somewhere in Maine where the entire shebang becomes vertically stacked.
Now, here's the tricky part. The exact location of this stacked low will
determine how much upslope we get. I'd like to see the system a little
further north and west than what I saw on the NCEP models before I fully
jump in... because a low in Maine hits us with more westerly winds (have to
cross 'Dacks) than northwesterly (doesn't get dried out by the 'Dacks). If
its a little further north in S. Quebec, then we'd get a real good upslope
event following a moderate snowfall.

What I feel comfortable with is that snow breaks out tomorrow
afternooon/evening and continues through the night before tapering off
Wednesday morning. It will be a wet 31-33F snow below 1,000ft and given no
real arctic air near us, its a done deal that the Champlain Valley and CT
River Valley will likely go over to rain or non-accumulating wet snow for a
good portion of this. Anywhere below 500ft runs the risk of plain rain with
wet snow 500-1,500ft... I expect better ratios 1,500-summits where temps
will be more like mid to upper 20s.

Models indicate a general 3-6 inch snowfall on Wednesday night across the
ski areas, with locally higher amounts as you head into the higher terrain
of central VT and central NH. I'd expect Killington or Sugarbush wins the
overnight sweepstakes in VT, as far as Thursday morning new snow totals go.
Then there's a pretty decent lull in precipitation during Thursday morning
into Thursday afternoon. I'm concerned with marginal temps and moist low
levels that we either get light freezing drizzle or freezing mist after the
snow in the mountains (ie. light crust) as deeper lift leaves the region,
but won't forecast that yet. We've seen this set-up before and its not
uncommon to get some light crust after a wet snowfall from residual low
level moisture.

Then, the low consolidates and stacks later on Thursday which will finally
usher in some colder air and upslope snow. No matter what happens, we're
looking at 4"+ of upslope, with the possibility of 12+ as dendrite growth
level lowers into the orographic lift zone Thursday night and Friday. This
will be an interesting event to watch unfold as weather and snowfall will
likely vary a lot from one location to another, with aspect and elevation.

I'll chime in tomorrow evening on the prospect for upslope later in the storm...
-Scott

 

[tequiladoug]

 

[billski]

Hot Damn! It's looking like a 3-day windfall! W-T-F

 

[jerseyrob]

Just got my shift covered.....heading to Saddleback Wednesday night!!! Hope the wind holds off.........Anybody else gonna be up there?

 

[riverc0il]

Central NH through mid-western ME get nailed again! This season is freaking unreal. What to do Thursday? What to do? Free skiing at Burke, cheap skiing at Cannon, or pay to ski Cat or Black? Saddleback is off the table due to the drive in the snow. Different story if I had a place to crash and could drive over Wednesday. I would be concerned about wind hold at Saddleback as well (didn't used to have to worry about that!!!). Same at Wildcat and perhaps Cannon depending on where the snow is blowing out of. I might just leave home early, see what is happening at Cannon at 8am and make the decision based on wind factors. Thurs is twofer day at Cannon and sure to be a shitshow. Burke isn't going to get as much snow but a much mellower day with less competition (fewer options too). Ah, it is so NICE to have choices.

Then back to work on Friday, hope for some Friday up slope in the Greens, and back at it in NoVT for Saturday with local BC on the table for Sunday and maybe a dawn patrol Monday morning if we get another slug of snow.

WELCOME BACK WINTER. THANK YOU, SIR! MAY I HAVE ANOTHER?!!?

 

[ZYDECORICH]

The voodoo lady lurks!

 

[salsgang]

Just got my shift covered.....heading to Saddleback Wednesday night!!! Hope the wind holds off.........Anybody else gonna be up there?

We are there Friday. Save some snow for us! ;-) Looks like they have backed off the wind forecasts for Thursday. Higher Summit forecasts from Mt. Washington Observatory calling for "winds SSE shifting NW 30-45 mph decreasing to 20-35 mph w/ higher morning gusts." Most of the time I find that winds over 55 at Mt. Washington starts holding lifts at SB and SL. Its a rough correlation but hopeful sign wind-wise. Have Fun!

 

[awf170]

Central NH through mid-western ME get nailed again! This season is freaking unreal. What to do Thursday? What to do? Free skiing at Burke, cheap skiing at Cannon, or pay to ski Cat or Black? Saddleback is off the table due to the drive in the snow. Different story if I had a place to crash and could drive over Wednesday. I would be concerned about wind hold at Saddleback as well (didn't used to have to worry about that!!!). Same at Wildcat and perhaps Cannon depending on where the snow is blowing out of. I might just leave home early, see what is happening at Cannon at 8am and make the decision based on wind factors. Thurs is twofer day at Cannon and sure to be a shitshow. Burke isn't going to get as much snow but a much mellower day with less competition (fewer options too). Ah, it is so NICE to have choices.

Then back to work on Friday, hope for some Friday up slope in the Greens, and back at it in NoVT for Saturday with local BC on the table for Sunday and maybe a dawn patrol Monday morning if we get another slug of snow.

WELCOME BACK WINTER. THANK YOU, SIR! MAY I HAVE ANOTHER?!!?

I'm thinking Shawnee Peak. It is almost as dead as Black but is actually consistently steep.

 

[deadheadskier]

Mt. Abram should be on some folks radar for a no competition powder day.

unfortunately I won't be out on a hill again until Sunday. At this point, possibly Wildcat.

 

[billski]

Here's where my money goes:

while second place goes to

Storm Total Forecast for elevations to 2000 feet. That means the mountains will see different amounts. (not always but usually more
Now, if we can only get Albany NWS into the STSF program so we can get a graph of So VT, W Mass/W CT!
Snow measured in inches.

Anyone who thinks they have to be at work Thurs-Fri is nuts

 

[jerseyrob]

We are there Friday. Save some snow for us! ;-) Looks like they have backed off the wind forecasts for Thursday. Higher Summit forecasts from Mt. Washington Observatory calling for "winds SSE shifting NW 30-45 mph decreasing to 20-35 mph w/ higher morning gusts." Most of the time I find that winds over 55 at Mt. Washington starts holding lifts at SB and SL. Its a rough correlation but hopeful sign wind-wise. Have Fun!

Sounds good! Thanks Salsgang!! We'll try to save some snow fro you but I can not promise anything. Hahahahaha.......have fun up there!! I'll report on conditions tomorrow night!

 

[salsgang]

Sounds good! Thanks Salsgang!! We'll try to save some snow fro you but I can not promise anything. Hahahahaha.......have fun up there!! I'll report on conditions tomorrow night!

Awesome. They are talking about some upslope snow thurs night to Friday so we might get lucky too...

 

[billski]

no mo speculation!

 

[frozencorn]

Wildcat it is then. Good. I need retribution after last Saturday's "firm" half-mountain depression.

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

northern Vermont will likely get more snow on the backside..I hope..

 

[billski]

northern Vermont will likely get more snow on the backside..I hope..

+1 . Share the wealth Obama said....


It's really getting hard to get anything done, with this on our back door.....

 

[ollegator]

WTH? Burlington office: northern vt/nh border - 3.8" of snow forecasted.
Maine office: northern vt/nh border - 11/8" of snow forecasted.

Does someone in Maine office loves the red color too much or this snowstorms these days recognize the state borders?

 

[billski]

WTH? Burlington office: northern vt/nh border - 3.8" of snow forecasted.
Maine office: northern vt/nh border - 11/8" of snow forecasted.

Does someone in Maine office loves the red color too much or this snowstorms these days recognize the state borders?

This has always been a problem. It's clear they are not on speaking terms with each other. One is more pessimistic than the other. I post the maps, let you consolidate the data and draw your own conclusions. In my experience, Burlignton is far more in tune with snow and mountains than Gray (go figure). Both Gray and Albany seem to have a different agenda.. Would you rather be looking at accuweather????