2/19 - 2/20 Storm Discussion Thread

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

People were saying this was going to be a great storm for NH/ME but I think VT is actually going to get more snow out of this.

VT almost always gets more snow out of these types of systems due to the backside..

 

[LonghornSkier]

VT almost always gets more snow out of these types of systems due to the backside..

Not necessarily there has been a few storms this year where Wildcat and Sugarloaf have gotten more snow like in December when Sugarloaf got 30 inches and Stowe got like 16. But overall VT gets more upslope snow.

 

[billski]

Please explain "backside." I know you me the afterwards of the storm, but why/how does it occur? Is is predictable? Does it need certain conditions?

 

[billski]

Serious Storm Stoke from Scott powderfreak

posted wednesday Night:

So I've looked a little further into the upslope potential from late
Thursday night until Saturday morning and feel that this is the best set-up
we've had this season by far. I'm pretty excited to see what transpires
over the next 72 hours, but suffice to say the best day to ski out of all of
this might be Saturday morning.

Tonight, a decent light to moderate snowfall at the ski areas with 3-6"
north of I-89 and 4-7" south...above 1,000ft. Below 1,000ft expect 2-4"
south of 89 and 1-3" north of 89. I'm going with ratios of 10:1 at the ski
areas, and 8:1 lower elevations for the overnight period. Temps will fall a
couple degrees this evening with evaporational cooling, but will hold steady
or slowly rise later tonight which will likely change the lower elevations
(500ft or lower) to rain with temps 33-36F. Ski area temperatures above
1,000ft should be 29-32F with mid 20s at the summits.

Tomorrow, best isentropic lift (warm air advection) should be northeast of
our region by 7am, so I don't expect too much to be going on during the
morning commute. Again, with a lack of mid-level lift, I'm concerned that
residual low level moisture below the dendritic growth zone will cause some
freezing drizzle in the mountains that could put a light crust on the snow.
I wouldn't forecast that necessarily but would keep it in the back of my
mind. Overall, snow accumulations tomorrow won't be all that great, with
maybe an additional couple inches in the mountains from periods of light
snow throughout the day.

Then tomorrow night, Friday, and Friday night conditions become favorable
for upslope snow. First, we'll have the mid-level lows at 700mb and 500mb
track over us which will instigate good lift as air parcels rise to fill
those voids in the mid-levels. So a period of more enhance snow showers on
Thursday night is likely for several hours. Following the passage of the
mid-level lows, all winds from the surface to 15,000ft turn westerly or WNW
in a moist cyclonic flow. This will cause orographic induced snow to
develop across the northern Adirondacks and Green Mountain spine for Friday.

Periods of snow showers look like a good bet on Friday with additional
accumulations likely. Per 850mb and 700mb relative humidity fields, Friday
afternoon and evening may also see another period of enhanced snowfall
across the mountains. As the vertically stacked low pressure centers from
the surface to 500mb slowly move off to the north and east, snow will linger
across the Green Mountains on Friday night and into Saturday morning. Not
expecting anything too heavy on Friday night but another round of light
accums is possible.

The end result is that we'll have periods of mountain snow for the next
48-60 hours. It won't snow non-stop for that time, but snow showers along
spine will be enhanced to mod/hvy at times as spokes of energy and moisture
rotate around the cut-off low from Thursday night through early Saturday
morning. Total accumulations on the spine between MRG and Jay for a 72 hour
period ending Saturday 7am (so Saturday morning's ski report) should be at
least a foot and could be up to 2 feet above 2,000ft. There is an outside
chance if the planets align of some locally higher amounts, particularly up
north closer to the deeper moisture.

This will be a fun one to watch unfold, but I've got that gut feeling that
the upslope machine will come through over the next couple days.

 

[psyflyer]

Today at Burke was a very fun day as got 4-6 inches overnight. Mountain was busier than usual for a Thursday and the day progressed well as carving the heavy wet snow became taxiing but a lot of fun. The snow continued throughout the day but very lightly until early afternoon when it picked up. About 1 hour ago the snow picked up considerably and with the falling temps your starting to see accumulation on top of last nights snow-fall. Tomorrow moring is shaping up to be a classic, and if it continues to snow as now we are in for a heck of a day.

 

[billski]

Today at Burke was a very fun day as got 4-6 inches overnight. Mountain was busier than usual for a Thursday and the day progressed well as carving the heavy wet snow became taxiing but a lot of fun. The snow continued throughout the day but very lightly until early afternoon when it picked up. About 1 hour ago the snow picked up considerably and with the falling temps your starting to see accumulation on top of last nights snow-fall. Tomorrow moring is shaping up to be a classic, and if it continues to snow as now we are in for a heck of a day.

Wow, that's interesting. Please tell me more what the snow is like. It sounds heavy. Were you skiing ungroomed?

 

[JPTracker]

It's been snowing all day here at Jay. Got 4 - 6 last night which gave us 4 - 5 runs with untracked powder.When we stopped for lunch at 1:00 my thermometer read 39 but the snow never seemed to get wet or heavy. It is now 31 and is snowing petty good. Hopefully tomorrow will be a repeat of today.

 

[psyflyer]

Wow, that's interesting. Please tell me more what the snow is like. It sounds heavy. Were you skiing ungroomed?

The snow was heavy as temps barely broke 30 degrees, during the day even though it snowed it barely accumulated, it only started around 2pm accumulating as the temp dropped, and since my last post we got a solid 2-3 inches and its snowing harder then ever has since yesterday when it all started.

We rode both ungroomed (Bear Den, Dougs Drop, Marshes) as well as some groomed (Willoughby, Warren's Way, Upper Fox's, Dear Run), all in all the ungroomed was a blast as we were there first tracks and took down some monster poweder with us. As it stands right now, tomorrow morning looks to be better than today.

 

[danny p]

dumping snow on the K1 cam for the last 45 min.

 

[WoodCore]

A heavy burst of unpredicted snow is pushing through West Central CT at this moment. Been snowing hard for the last hour with almost 2 inches on the ground at my house already.

 

[Greg]

A heavy burst of unpredicted snow is pushing through West Central CT at this moment. Been snowing hard for the last hour with almost 2 inches on the ground at my house already.

Hell yeah! The 3-ish inches that got rained on last night all melted today, but the ground is now white again. Squallier than a mo-fo right now!

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

It's been snowing all day here at Jay. Got 4 - 6 last night which gave us 4 - 5 runs with untracked powder.When we stopped for lunch at 1:00 my thermometer read 39 but the snow never seemed to get wet or heavy. It is now 31 and is snowing petty good. Hopefully tomorrow will be a repeat of today.

you might need to get your thermometer checked..39 at Jay Peak????

 

[ccskier]

you might need to get your thermometer checked..39 at Jay Peak????

Spoke to my mother in-law, next town over at 4:30 today and it was over 40 today. She is at a decent elevation, rained there most of the day, switched to snow later in the day. Just got off the phone with a buddy who teaches at stowe, he said 4-6 of wet snow last night, inch or two today on the mountain. Said it freshened up surfaces, were bullet proof.

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

Spoke to my mother in-law, next town over at 4:30 today and it was over 40 today. She is at a decent elevation, rained there most of the day, switched to snow later in the day. Just got off the phone with a buddy who teaches at stowe, he said 4-6 of wet snow last night, inch or two today on the mountain. Said it freshened up surfaces, were bullet proof.

Wow...we hit 46 down here in MASH today...lets hope for some more snow..

 

[aveski2000]

8" - 12" inches at Sunday River today. It was surprisingly light at Oz and Jordan. No wind either.

 

[Bumpsis]

Sugarloaf update

Got to the mountain about noon. They had may be about 5 inches. The aftrenoon snow showers added perhaps 3 more inches at best. Snow was at a bit heavy side, but that's a good thing. I'm hoping it will do a good job of covering up the ice.

So, even though the 10 inches that the Sugarloaf site is reporting is some marketing fantasy, the conditions towards the end of the day were really fun. Soft bumps were growing on more popular trails and the east side of the mountain was fabulous.
Not much more is expected from this system. Next couple of days should be quite good if the winds don't shut down the lifts.

 

[billski]

Got to the mountain about noon. They had may be about 5 inches. The aftrenoon snow showers added perhaps 3 more inches at best. Snow was at a bit heavy side, but that's a good thing. I'm hoping it will do a good job of covering up the ice.

So, even though the 10 inches that the Sugarloaf site is reporting is some marketing fantasy, the conditions towards the end of the day were really fun. Soft bumps were growing on more popular trails and the east side of the mountain was fabulous.
Not much more is expected from this system. Next couple of days should be quite good if the winds don't shut down the lifts.

was windy last night. head for the trees.
We'll be at wildcat Friday.

 

[billski]

you might need to get your thermometer checked..39 at Jay Peak????

savin' on the heatin' bills :grin:

 

[SkiingInABlueDream]

ditto on psyflyer's 2/19 Burke comments

I did Burke today too. 3-5 new is what I was thinking thru the morning, skiing ungroomed & map-glades. Base is really crusty in general, and crusty & spotty in the glades. (I know I hit ground a few times but amazingly it was never rock, and no obvious base damage on my skis.)

That said I thought today was excellent. The mountain was empty (compare to what Im used to, but apparently not by Burke standards <shrug>). Half the glades were roped off, which is where I found the best untracked lines. (Maybe Im decent at avoiding trail-bonage, but I didnt think the closed glades were any worse than the open ones. wonder if the folks at Burke were being douches & trying to save terrain for the weekend. oh well) I thought a couple inches accumulated thru the afternoon, based on feel under my feet. That or the afternoon was when I hit mainly roped off runs. Did Dixieland 3 times, never saw anyone else in there. Felt like a legitimate 7-8" of pow on the last couple runs in there.

And Im pretty sure the 94-waist skis I got last spring help make today a crapload more fun than it would've been on my previous, 74-waist skis which are now relegated to beater-status.

So where's the snow-jackpot for tomorrow? Im in St. J right now and can literally go anywhere tomorrow.

 

[ski_resort_observer]

You working Friday? I'll pop in if I make it.

Yup...I'll be at Mt Ellen