2/3 Storm Discussion Thread

[awf170]

Nice. Another storm for my Wednesday/Thursday off next week.

I have Thursday off too. We should go for a tour if this storm pans out.

 

[salsgang]

Looks like the latest NWS Gray forecast discussion is turning this to snow.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... RELATIVELY QUIET AND COLD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FOCUS SHIFTS TO EARLY WEEK STORM WHICH YESTERDAY LOOKED TO BE LIQUID PER
MODEL SOLUTIONS. LATEST INTERMEDIATE AND MAIN SYNOPTIC RUNS NOW
LEANING TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT BRINGS THE STORM FURTHER EAST AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLDER TREND. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF MOSTLY SNOW TO THE REGION. 12Z MODELS RANGE FROM GEM TRACK ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE GFS WHICH BRINGS IT OUT AROUND CAPE COD TUESDAY MORNING...THEN STEERS IT INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY ON TUESDAY EVENING. 12Z EUROPEAN BRINGS IT FURTHER EAST ALONG THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. STILL LOTS OF TIME/TRACK ADJUSTMENTS...SO FOR NOW WILL USE STRAIT GMOS GUIDANCE...RATHER THAN THAN TRY TO GUESSTIMATE
OTHER ASSUMPTIONS. FOR WHAT IT`S WORTH...THE PREVIOUS
WARMER/WETTER SOLUTIONS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM CONSIDERING SOLID
COLD SNOWBASE IN PLACE.

 

[loafer89]

Snow is back in my local forecast, uuuurrrrgggghhhh, uncle, uncle.

Sincerely yours, broken back and bent snowshovel. Or is it the other way around.

 

[RootDKJ]

AZ weather forecasters: PA gonna get any love on this one?

 

[loafer89]

AZ weather forecasters: PA gonna get any love on this one?

Maybe, the models are still doing the cha,cha as far as guidance for the storm track is concerned. Concensus is now for a slightly more offshore storm track, meaning more snow than rain for New England away from the coast.

 

[RootDKJ]

Maybe, the models are still doing the cha,cha as far as guidance for the storm track is concerned. Concensus is now for a slightly more offshore storm track, meaning more snow than rain for New England away from the coast.

Damn cha cha. Well I reserved Monday off, just in case.

 

[loafer89]

Damn cha cha. Well I reserved Monday off, just in case.

Right now I would plan for Gore or Whiteface to be sure of mostly snow based on the latest forecasts.

 

[WJenness]

Car getting serviced on Monday... Interview on Wednesday... Tuesday and Thurs / Fri / Sat are my ski days next week...

being unemployed isn't horrible.

-w

 

[andyzee]

Car getting serviced on Monday... Interview on Wednesday... Tuesday and Thurs / Fri / Sat are my ski days next week...

being unemployed isn't horrible.

-w

Good luck in each one!

 

[Bostonian]

Well me being the idiot up at 6:30 on a Saturday morning, I just turned on Channel 4's news, and they are saying that it will be an all snow event here in Boston. The only question is what the strength of the storm is. This is looking great!

 

[billski]

Well me being the idiot up at 6:30 on a Saturday morning,

No idiot; that's a skier's mandate for a good day's start.

Now that it's closer, it's got my attention. We get enough of these midweek events, it's gonna really screw up my work schedule!

 

[billski]

ummmm. Stowe just checked in with a $35 ticket deal for wednesday. Is this the perfect storm????

http://forums.alpinezone.com/31254-skiing-cheap-2008-09-thread-31.html#post384393

 

[Bostonian]

ummmm. Stowe just checked in with a $35 ticket deal for wednesday. Is this the perfect storm????

http://forums.alpinezone.com/31254-skiing-cheap-2008-09-thread-31.html#post384393

Nice... Although I do have a free ticket to Stratton I haven't used yet too... decisions decisions. These mid week storms are messing up my work too, I am burning vacation days left and right lol

 

[Glenn]

Looks like this may be an "all or nothing" event. Again, as long as there's no "R" word associate with this.


Hazardous Weather Outlook from NWS. They always "yell":

AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING UP THE COAST SHOULD BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE STORM WILL PASS
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...EXACTLY HOW FAR OFFSHORE IT WILL GO IS
STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. AS A RESULT THE STORMS EXACT IMPACT...FROM A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM...TO LITTLE IF ANY...IS STILL HARD TO PIN
DOWN. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION...AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS
AND POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK
OF THIS STORM...STAYED TUNED TO WEATHER.GOV/NYC OR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

 

[pepperdawg]

Nice... Although I do have a free ticket to Stratton I haven't used yet too... decisions decisions. These mid week storms are messing up my work too, I am burning vacation days left and right lol

Thats what Vacation days are for.....

Hey I see in your sig you hit Prosepect - Is that the Sothern VT NELSP Prospect near Bennington?

 

[billski]

Hazardous Weather Outlook from NWS. They always "yell":

I think their material has to feed a wide range of outdated, disparate systems, so it has be "compatible."

 

[Glenn]

I think their material has to feed a wide range of outdated, disparate systems, so it has be "compatible."

The forecast for the towns I live and work in are out of the Upton NY office. The forecast for one town north of where I work....somewhere in eastern Mass.

So no matter what I read, I'm always getting a NYC or Baaaaaaaaaaaaaawstun bias.

 

[Bostonian]

Thats what Vacation days are for.....

Hey I see in your sig you hit Prosepect - Is that the Sothern VT NELSP Prospect near Bennington?

Hehe, I have been burning them left and right at work. Plus there is my trip to vail at the end of next month too. As for Prospect Hill, that is in Waltham Mass, it is pretty much grown in although with a good dumping it is still skiable. I know last year they were speaking about reopening for a snowflex ski area. But it went nowhere, I hope the mayor smartens up and reopens it just because I want to ski every night here!

 

[Greg]

Gotta love the snow enthusiasm in the albany office:

GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A LOW OFF THE EAST COAST.
WHILE THE PATHS ARE NOT THAT FAR APART ON A SYNOPTIC SCALE...
100 TO 300 MILES...REGARDING WHERE THEY ARE WILL MAKE A BIG
DIFFERENCE. THE GFS ALSO DEEPENS THE LOW AN ADDITIONAL 10 MB
BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE ONE GOOD THING...REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL
WE FOLLOW...THE WEATHER WILL BE SNOW...ALL SNOW. ON THE OTHER
HAND THE ECMWF WILL ONLY GIVE US A FEW INCHES...NOT EVEN ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY...WHILE THE GFS WILL BURY MUCH OF THE REGION
UNDER A FOOT. WE WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BUT HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT IN
LIGHT OF THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. HEAVIEST SNOWFALLS WILL BE IN
A WIDE BAND FROM THE CATSKILLS ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. THE REALLY GOOD NEWS IS THESE LATEST MODEL SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST RULE OUT SLEET...ICE...AND RAIN. TEMPERATURES RISE
FROM THE TEENS AND TWENTIES TUESDAY MORNING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW
30S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE EAST WILL
AGAIN OPEN THE ICEBOX DOOR WITH A COLD BLAST OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY
AREA WHERE 850 HPA TEMPS ARE MINUS 20 TO MINUS 25 DEGREES. LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM BELOW ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
AROUND 10 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. INDEED WE MAY BE DEALING WITH WIND
CHILL ISSUES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND THE GREEN MTNS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT.

:lol:

 

[KingM]

Seems like people have backed off the superstorm designation. To be honest, with plenty of snow on the ground at the moment I'd rather take 100% chance of six inches than 70% chance of three feet and 30% chance of an inch or two of rain.

BTW, looks like we got an unexpected 6-8 inches last night at Sugarbush and Mad River. It was flurrying up there all afternoon but during my last couple of runs of the day it started dumping, which was a fun surprise. Too bad the lifts closed before I could take advantage of it.