2014-2015 Winter Forecast (here we go)

[Not Sure]

Oh, hai NOAA!

Nice to see you, where have you been? Better late than never I suppose.

Nice dip...Weather weenies on WC hinting at a pice of energy riding up the coast. Not on model though

 

[BenedictGomez]

A Meteorological 'bomb' is about to go off in the Bering Strait

Typhoon Nuri, along with its reincarnation as a non-tropical system, appears likely to combine with several other factors to direct multiple rounds of cold, Arctic air into the Midwest and eastern U.S. during the remainder of November.

http://mashable.com/2014/11/05/weat...:eyJzIjoiZiIsImkiOiJfa3kwYW55Y29uNm94dmoyMSJ9

 

[murff81]

I was just reading about this 'polar vortex'

I truly hope it brings the cold air/snowy punch!! (And let's hope it swings a little more east)

 

[Smellytele]

 

[BenedictGomez]

Check this crap out....

Does anyone recall a northern New England winter where there wasn't a December through February thaw? Longshot, but at the moment there's no sign of abnormally warm temps returning after next week.

 

[catsup948]

Yeah I've been reading about the chance of a coastal storm late next week. Looks like it will be chilly at least.

 

[skifree]

Check this crap out....

Does anyone recall a northern New England winter where there wasn't a December through February thaw? Longshot, but at the moment there's no sign of abnormally warm temps returning after next week.

Time to buy milk

 

[Cannonball]

Check this crap out....

Does anyone recall a northern New England winter where there wasn't a December through February thaw? Longshot, but at the moment there's no sign of abnormally warm temps returning after next week.

Not sure what you mean by "abnormally warm". If no one can remember a winter without a thaw in Dec-Feb isn't that the norm? So does "abnormally warm" mean "warmer than the warmness we always get"?

 

[murff81]

Well....I was very happy to see all the snow fall here in central NY today. Nothing stuck but it was nice to see it falling....also glad that the weather guessing game shows us cold for the foreseeable future

 

[BenedictGomez]

Not sure what you mean by "abnormally warm". If no one can remember a winter without a thaw in Dec-Feb isn't that the norm? So does "abnormally warm" mean "warmer than the warmness we always get"?

Yes and no. Yes in that we normally get a thaw somewhere in the winter, so yes that's "normal", but in order to get that thaw in the first place you need temps that are a warm deviation from the historical temperatures for January or February. And what I'm saying is that as of now, it's cold for as far as the eye can see on the long-range models, even in December, starting next week (we all know that's statistically not likely to hold but it would be nice if it does).

 

[Tin]

Nuri is bringing some "Day After Tommorow" like stuff.

 

[fbrissette]

Yes and no. Yes in that we normally get a thaw somewhere in the winter, so yes that's "normal", but in order to get that thaw in the first place you need temps that are a warm deviation from the historical temperatures for January or February. And what I'm saying is that as of now, it's cold for as far as the eye can see on the long-range models, even in December, starting next week (we all know that's statistically not likely to hold but it would be nice if it does).

Long range temperature forecasts have little to no skill after 10 days in the north east.

 

[Cannonball]

Yes and no. Yes in that we normally get a thaw somewhere in the winter, so yes that's "normal", but in order to get that thaw in the first place you need temps that are a warm deviation from the historical temperatures for January or February. And what I'm saying is that as of now, it's cold for as far as the eye can see on the long-range models, even in December, starting next week (we all know that's statistically not likely to hold but it would be nice if it does).

Agreed!!!! Even if it's abnormally colder than the abnormally warm spell. That would be nice!! Was great to see a few inches today (and even some earned tracks on Cannon).

I have big project ongoing right now that has me out on the water everyday on a very small boat. Most of the crew I'm working with are miserable over this forecast, but I'm loving it. The only thing that bothers me is that I might be stuck on the boat during potential early seasons snows in the next few weeks.

 

[jack97]

interesting article/paper on the correlation of blocking events to the NAO. Most likely another data point for long range forecasters when they sift thru their analogs. iirc, jb was looking at the Atlantic ocean temps when he made his earliest winter forecast several months ago.

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/blocking-atlantic.html

 

[goldsbar]

Snow covering the ground at altitude in NJ on November 13th. Must be a good sign for things to come!

 

[Not Sure]

Pa. 850' elv. Me too 2.5" in the back yard and it's cooling down starting to stick on roads will be 4'' by morning. Maybe a quick backyard slide

 

[ss20]

According to the radar, its been snowing 5 miles north, east, and west of me for the past hour. BRING IT HERE!! ONLY 5 MILES AWAY! I'VE WAITED 7 MONTHS TO SEE SNOW!!!

/end rant

 

[mriceyman]

Snowing in cnj.. Hope up north gets some love.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone

 

[180]

too bad its going to warm up again after the 20th. That's good, makes for good bumps.

 

[Tin]

too bad its going to warm up again after the 20th. That's good, makes for good bumps.

Where are you seeing that? The few places I visit show a system will give most of Vermont/NH/Maine and the Catskills rain ending as 2-4" of snow Monday-Tuesday and behind it some cold air with highs not getting above freezing. Make sure your edges are sharp.