2014-2015 Winter Forecast (here we go)

[BenedictGomez]

Laughably awful US Government model has us melting our faces off. Thank god it's the GFS!

 

[Rowsdower]

It's still going to be a warm December though. Doesn't look like temps return to seasonal averages for the rest of the month.

 

[BenedictGomez]

It's still going to be a warm December though. Doesn't look like temps return to seasonal averages for the rest of the month.

If so, it wont be that much of a departure.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Here's another great graphic (for next week's shot on goal) to disparage the GFS with.

Euro says rain/snowstorm.
Japanese says rain/snowstorm.
Canucks say rain/snowstorm.
UK (not pictured) says rain/snowstorm.

US gov model says.... BRIGHT SUNNY DAY. Get out your shades!

 

[Slimtalk]

Hope for lots of snow this winter!

 

[jack97]

If so, it wont be that much of a departure.

noaa has been measuring and running hot all year..... doesn't surprise they will be on this pedestal for a while.

 

[dlague]

Watching weather on TV this morning and that said that there are three systems lined up in the Pacific - hope that translates into future snow for us.

 

[BenedictGomez]

noaa has been measuring and running hot all year..... doesn't surprise they will be on this pedestal for a while.

The funny thing is they said November would be warm, and it was cold. Originally December would be cold, and now it appears average/mild to slightly warm. For people that follow this stuff, it's almost statistically improbable (but comical) how often they're wrong on even essentially "coin flip" scenarios.

 

[Tin]

it's almost statistically improbable (but comical) how often they're wrong on even essentially "coin flip" scenarios.

Proof of the Gambler's Fallacy.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Looks like winter begins right on schedule.

White Christmas with any luck.

 

[billski]

My wife contends they get they flatlander and city 3-5 day forecasts right most of the time. I don't buy it but I don't have the statistical data.. You think?

 

[St. Bear]

My wife contends they get they flatlander and city 3-5 day forecasts right most of the time. I don't buy it but I don't have the statistical data.. You think?

I think it would depend on which city.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-city-has-the-most-unpredictable-weather/

 

[BenedictGomez]

Probably a good time to point out that the long-range models that claimed we'd soon be re-opening our swimming pools and playing lawn darts are going to be wrong.

AGAIN.

Thankfully.

 

[fbrissette]

My wife contends they get they flatlander and city 3-5 day forecasts right most of the time. I don't buy it but I don't have the statistical data.. You think?

I don't have any stat to show you, but I work with weather forecasters (the guys who run the forecating models) in a few research projects and what they tell me is that on average their success rate is 50% at 5 days (better for temperature, worse for precip). In other words, they are not really better at 5 days than guessing. 25 years ago, the 50% success rate was at 2 days. So they are getting better. That's on average. Some weather systems are easier to predict than others.

 

[skiNEwhere]

Probably a good time to point out that the long-range models that claimed we'd soon be re-opening our swimming pools and playing lawn darts are going to be wrong.

AGAIN.

Thankfully.

Lawn darts? Those have been banned for like 25 years. Way too much responsibility for Americans to handle

 

[BenedictGomez]

Lawn darts? Those have been banned for like 25 years. Way too much responsibility for Americans to handle

I have about 4 or 5 sets of them. I had this crazy idea to buy them in the mid-90s when you could still find them at yard sales etc... figuring they'd increase in value. They have! You can get about $100 a set for them now. I'm keeping them though, too much fun to sell, and I'll have replacements if fins break etc....

 

[catsup948]

Late next week there seems to be something popping up. Deepening trough and several lows moving up the coast. Seems a more active pattern with better air right before Christmas. Ski resorts should be primed for the holiday week!

 

[BenedictGomez]

Late next week there seems to be something popping up. Deepening trough and several lows moving up the coast. Seems a more active pattern with better air right before Christmas. Ski resorts should be primed for the holiday week!

Storm's still there on the European, but everything isnt quite right on the others. The good news is, this far out the EURO tends to be the most accurate.

Sure is pretty to look at though.....

 

[mriceyman]

That would be nice


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone

 

[Abubob]

This just illustrates where the above and below freezing temps might be. But the location of the low is about perfect for snow in northern NE - as long as it stays just off the coast and doesn't track up the CT valley.