Belleayre Opens Gondola Today

[Cornhead]

Here you go.

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[cdskier]

It is possible that the long range planners have a better idea of the realities of this upgrade than the AZ ski area development council here.

The problem with this statement is that the long range plan did not include a gondola. The master plan that was in development for years and years didn't include this piece...but then suddenly at essentially the last minute the plan is changed and an HSQ in the plan is replaced with a gondola? When you have a last minute change like that it doesn't exactly speak to something that was well thought out by the "long range planners". In fact it makes it sound like those people that know what they are doing had little involvement in the change and that it was driven by someone that did it for other reasons (i.e. political).

What's the ROI on a new gondola that serves no new terrain? Are people that previously didn't ski Belleayre going to suddenly start running there just because they have a gondola now? The $8M spent on the gondola would have gone a long way towards building out the trails and a lift on the Highmount pod. And I would argue that increasing your terrain with an entirely new pod would be much more likely to drive more people to the mountain than a gondola to nowhere.

 

[jmgard]

Here you go.

Gotta love lower Skyeship...

 

[BenedictGomez]

It is possible that the long range planners have a better idea of the realities of this upgrade than the AZ ski area development council here.

Short Answer:

No.



Long Answer:

They just put a GONDOLA in at Belleayre. Has that not sunk in for you yet? A gondola - at Belleayre. This doesn't need to be overthought. It's not Einstein's mass–energy equivalence calculation. There is no possible rational explanation here.

 

[JimG.]

Remind me again all of you naysayers...

Exactly how many ski areas have you owned, developed, or even managed?

That's right...zero.

Your expertise is dubious. In some cases outright hate disqualifies any and all commentary.

Gondola envy? Pathetic.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Exactly how many ski areas have you owned, developed, or even managed?

That's right...zero.

Your expertise is dubious.

Exactly how many ski areas has New York State owned, developed, or even managed?

That's right...three.

Their expertise is dubious.

 

[tnt1234]

So on another topic, how much snow is up there off-trail? There was someone the highway on the way home from VT last weekend, but wondering if they get lucky with 6-8" from this storm....any chance for trees? Cathedral brook? Or not enough yet?

 

[cdskier]

Remind me again all of you naysayers...

Exactly how many ski areas have you owned, developed, or even managed?

That's right...zero.

Your expertise is dubious. In some cases outright hate disqualifies any and all commentary.

Have you read the Belleayre UMP? Like I said in an earlier post, it is highly detailed and very well thought out. It WAS created in collaboration with ski industry experts over the course of several years. My biggest issue is that the plan they created has been largely tossed aside here at the last minute and the recommendations made in their own plan aren't being followed.

Belleayre is my second favorite area in the Catskills (with only Platty being ahead of them). I want them to succeed. I've skied many days there over the years. A gondola by itself is not the answer to get them where they need to be (especially when you have Hunter planning a terrain expansion in the very near future).

 

[deadheadskier]

Anyone want to post up the ROI numbers put forth by the planners?

How much revenue is the lift projected to generate?

Let's look at that and if they fail to achieve those numbers in a few years, we can validate the quality of investment as bad.



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[cdskier]

Anyone want to post up the ROI numbers put forth by the planners?

How much revenue is the lift projected to generate?

Let's look at that and if they fail to achieve those numbers in a few years, we can validate the quality of investment as bad.

None of the plans I've seen show any breakdown for ROI of individual components. They talk about the ROI once the full expansion plan is completed. Per the plan, Belleayre currently operates at roughly a 600K/year loss. After full expansion, they project they would operate at a roughly 1M/year profit. This is largely based on the assumption that if they double the Comfortable Carrying Capacity of the resort, they would see a proportional increase in skier visits. I can say that in the plan, the proposed "Discovery Lift" (which is what the new Gondola has become) was supposed to have 0 impact on the CCC. The plan specifically says that lift was primarily intended as a transit lift to get people from the new proposed expanded main base facilities into the trail system and afterwards they would primarily use other existing or proposed lifts once actually within the trail network.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Anyone want to post up the ROI numbers put forth by the planners?

You'll have a better chance of discovering Jimmy Hoffa's body or Victoria's Secret than you will of getting an honest assessment of that info from New York.

ORDA is like a government-backed mafia, accountable to no one.

 

[deadheadskier]

There's no data at all?

With Cannon all of the financial information of Franconia State Park is publicly available broken down by revenue center. That includes off season Tram rides.

I'm sure in their budget requests for annual staffing Cannon/FSP has to project Tram ticket revenue. I would assume Bellyare would have the same process for summer operations of the gondola no?

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[tnt1234]

None of the plans I've seen show any breakdown for ROI of individual components. They talk about the ROI once the full expansion plan is completed. Per the plan, Belleayre currently operates at roughly a 600K/year loss. After full expansion, they project they would operate at a roughly 1M/year profit. This is largely based on the assumption that if they double the Comfortable Carrying Capacity of the resort, they would see a proportional increase in skier visits. I can say that in the plan, the proposed "Discovery Lift" (which is what the new Gondola has become) was supposed to have 0 impact on the CCC. The plan specifically says that lift was primarily intended as a transit lift to get people from the new proposed expanded main base facilities into the trail system and afterwards they would primarily use other existing or proposed lifts once actually within the trail network.

Huh. Well, that makes a bit a sense.

Rebuild the base lodge, have everyone start there, maximize ROI on expanded facilities there by maximizing traffic in that lodge....then provide a lift to get people to the lookers right side of the mountain without having everyone have to ride the super chief to get to where they want to go.

But now, with that lift being a gondi I think simply more people are going to go there, even if they are beginner/intermediate skiers.

But hey, whatever - it will be what it will be.

I always assumed they went with the Gondi instead of HSQ because they saw value in it as a four season attraction. Is a gondi better for mountain bike operations?

 

[Mapnut]

Slight problem with using the gondola as an access lift from the Discovery base: it's not very convenient for beginners and lower intermediates to get to the east side of the mountain and the Overlook Lodge. Only 2 choices: skate half a mile on the very, very flat Route 9 to the Roaring Brook trail, or ski down Deer Run and then take the Tomahawk quad to the midstation and ski a bunch of crossovers. Myself, being less than expert, I'd ski the usually groomed, single-diamond Peekamoose to the crossovers. Peekamoose still isn't open.

 

[KustyTheKlown]

its just stupid ass stupid design. good skiers don't want to ski all the way down to the bottom of the beginner terrain, beginner skiers wont want to skate across the ridge. its dumb dumb dumb.

 

[BenedictGomez]

There's no data at all?

With Cannon all of the financial information of Franconia State Park is publicly available broken down by revenue center. That includes off season Tram rides.

The ORDA financials are not the easiest thing to glean, and could be better to put it politely. There was a big analysis done about 3 years ago, and the result wasn't pretty. In terms of transparency, it sounds like it's definitely not as good as what you're describing from New Hampshire.

As for a ROI projection, I have no idea if that animal existed, but I would have absolutely zero confidence in it if it did. They would gin-up whatever numbers they needed to get the ink stamp on a contract. It's that bad.

 

[Domeskier]

Does a gondola cost significantly more than a bubble chair? Are gondolas more expensive to operate or maintain? Is there anything worse than that so-called "cabriolet" at Mountain Creek where you have to stand don't even get out of the cold or wind?

 

[cdskier]

Slight problem with using the gondola as an access lift from the Discovery base: it's not very convenient for beginners and lower intermediates to get to the east side of the mountain and the Overlook Lodge. Only 2 choices: skate half a mile on the very, very flat Route 9 to the Roaring Brook trail, or ski down Deer Run and then take the Tomahawk quad to the midstation and ski a bunch of crossovers. Myself, being less than expert, I'd ski the usually groomed, single-diamond Peekamoose to the crossovers. Peekamoose still isn't open.

The other choice would be to do what they did before the Gondola...take one of the beginner chairs up to the Overlook lodge and ski down from there to Super Chief.

its just stupid ass stupid design. good skiers don't want to ski all the way down to the bottom of the beginner terrain, beginner skiers wont want to skate across the ridge. its dumb dumb dumb.

That was one of my original arguments when the gondola was first announced. The segmentation of the beginner area from the rest of the mountain was one of the biggest selling points of Belleayre in my opinion. Beginners wouldn't have to worry about higher level skiers flying through their area. And intermediates and up wouldn't need to waste time on flat trails that they have no interest in skiing. And those people also wouldn't need to worry as much about beginners ending up on trails they shouldn't have been on. Now with a gondola directly out of the base/beginner area, they could easily end up at the top of the mountain before they are ready.

 

[cdskier]

Does a gondola cost significantly more than a bubble chair? Are gondolas more expensive to operate or maintain? Is there anything worse than that so-called "cabriolet" at Mountain Creek where you have to stand don't even get out of the cold or wind?

Belleayre's Gondola cost about the same as Mt Snow's Bluebird express six-pack bubble. Bluebird is a bit longer, covers a bit more vertical, and has a slightly higher capacity...but it was the closest example I could think of for comparison.

 

[Mapnut]

The other choice would be to do what they did before the Gondola...take one of the beginner chairs up to the Overlook lodge and ski down from there to Super Chief.

Right, so the gondola doesn't provide any improvement for lower-level skiers -except for getting to Deer Run.