Big Burke announcement

[BenedictGomez]

BenedictGomez, why would it matter if they are so rich they just don't care? In that case, they are waving money at Jay Peak and that money is creating jobs, regardless of how you count them or what level jobs they are.

That was my point, that if you're so rich you likely look at it as, here's my 1/2 million dollars, lets talk immigration, and not even care if Jay Peak is ever able to repay you. I actually dont like this either, the fact that you can just wave $500,000 and skip to the head of the line past tens-of-thousands patiently awaiting the normal legal process , but it is what it is I guess and the $ benefit trumps the line.

While I agree with you that it is easy to over sell the creation of jobs, especially good paying ones, I think we can both agree that considering the expansion that Jay Peak has done, they have probably created a considerable amount of mid-level management positions and at least a few higher level manager positions. They essentially opened three brand new facilities that could be independent businesses of their own and they need to be staffed 24/7 year round with big bumps on the weekend. And again, you can't compare this to stimulus money, it is investment money. Those that would eschew government stimulus for economic development should be in love with this type of investment plan for said development. There really is no downside and there is a major economic impact, whether or not it is as large as claimed can be debated, but you can't argue that it is insignificant.

I agree with most everything you said in the above (though I assure you the jobs numbers will 100% be fudged), except the bolded.

So often when you have these massive artificial infusions of money into a project and/or area it nearly always looks good, even great, right up until the point it doesn't. How will this affect Smuggler's Notch, was just one example I gave. But in most cases, if there are any financial or other negatives, they are usually unforeseen. I do love Jay Peak and hope this all works out for them, but some of this stuff seems puzzling to me from a financial perspective.

 

[thetrailboss]

I agree with most everything you said in the above (though I assure you the jobs numbers will 100% be fudged), except the bolded.

So often when you have these massive artificial infusions of money into a project and/or area it nearly always looks good, even great, right up until the point it doesn't. How will this affect Smuggler's Notch, was just one example I gave. But in most cases, if there are any financial or other negatives, they are usually unforeseen. I do love Jay Peak and hope this all works out for them, but some of this stuff seems puzzling to me from a financial perspective.

As you said, you're not the first to question JPR's plan and financial soundness. That report (I think you mentioned) has not gotten much traction for whatever reason. Bill Stenger says it is sour grapes.

 

[kingdom-tele]

That was my point, that if you're so rich you likely look at it as, here's my 1/2 million dollars, lets talk immigration, and not even care if Jay Peak is ever able to repay you. I actually dont like this either, the fact that you can just wave $500,000 and skip to the head of the line past tens-of-thousands patiently awaiting the normal legal process , but it is what it is I guess and the $ benefit trumps the line.



I agree with most everything you said in the above (though I assure you the jobs numbers will 100% be fudged), except the bolded.

So often when you have these massive artificial infusions of money into a project and/or area it nearly always looks good, even great, right up until the point it doesn't. How will this affect Smuggler's Notch, was just one example I gave. But in most cases, if there are any financial or other negatives, they are usually unforeseen. I do love Jay Peak and hope this all works out for them, but some of this stuff seems puzzling to me from a financial perspective.

read anything about the history of the EB-5 program and that seems to be its beauty, the job creation has such little criteria they can seemingly make up whatever they want.

I guess they just need to keep building massive buildings and adding more shit. As long as they build they can probably justify their workforce. 10,000 jobs. Thats equal to 14% of the NEK population. Gonna take a serious influx of people to meet that.

Wonder if the realtors are included in the job creation statistic?

 

[AdironRider]

As you said, you're not the first to question JPR's plan and financial soundness. That report (I think you mentioned) has not gotten much traction for whatever reason. Bill Stenger says it is sour grapes.

If anyone's defense is "sour grapes", thats a bad sign if you ask me.

 

[thetrailboss]

If anyone's defense is "sour grapes", thats a bad sign if you ask me.

I've paraphrased his response. IIRC he only replied that they were a consultant on the project and was later let go.

 

[BenedictGomez]

I've paraphrased his response. IIRC he only replied that they were a consultant on the project and was later let go.

No, they were an agent/broker for the EB-5, but were they let go? I thought they were the ones who left Jay Peak voluntarily, not the other way around. Which is part of why it seemed so strange.

It would be a bit like a sugar factory telling a giant company like Hershey it refused to sell them their sugar anymore. Poor analogy, but the point is, when you're the one who's livelihood is getting paid for a good or service, you're usually not the one who terminates the relationship. Add to that the unusually harsh language of the letter criticizing JP's financials, and it raised some eyebrows. Does anyone know if Jay Peak sued them?

 

[thetrailboss]

No, they were an agent/broker for the EB-5, but were they let go? I thought they were the ones who left Jay Peak voluntarily, not the other way around? Which is part of why it seemed so strange. It would be a bit like a sugar factory telling a giant company like Hershey it refused to sell them their sugar anymore. Poor analogy, but the point is, when you're the one who's livelihood is getting paid for a good or service, you're usually not the one who terminates the relationship.

Maybe you saw something I didn't. I know that the VT media had very little on it...and the JPR response was pretty much that the folks who left (or were let go) were not happy.

 

[kingdom-tele]

Some interesting numbers. Already having trouble filling positions! I was surprised to hear the jobs were filled with locals, seemed like a lot of people live outside the NEK. If they can pull this off it certainly sounds region altering.

http://newportvermontdailyexpress.com/content/workers-wanted


A big thank you for keeping the sunday rates at $25.

Buy one get one free with QC license? Who was wondering what market they are trying to tap into?

 

[fbrissette]

If anyone's defense is "sour grapes", thats a bad sign if you ask me.

There are really only 2 ways of looking at this:

1- Jay Peak is not doing well, financials statements are illegally doctored and, Rapid Visas, a business with Jay Peak as its main revenue source, was right in ringing the alarm bell.

2- Jay Peak decided to keep a larger share (or the entire share) of the cut it was giving Rapid Visas for acting on its behalf as the EB5 program representative/prospector. Rapid Visa was pissed and got back at Jay Peak by sending en email with undocumented allegations.


Considering that absolutely nothing came out of it, I would think that the latter is the most likely scenario.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Maybe you saw something I didn't. I know that the VT media had very little on it...and the JPR response was pretty much that the folks who left (or were let go) were not happy.

If you GOOG the visa place with JP, you'll come up with some interesting stuff. The state apparently afterwards sent someone in and was satisfied with JP's forward financial ability.

Considering that absolutely nothing came out of it, I would think that the latter is the most likely scenario.

That's why I'm wondering why JP didn't sue? Maybe JP is really laid back and figured a lawsuit would just bring more unwarranted and unwanted attention, but IMO that's a mistake. When you don't sue if your business suffers such an attack on the very heart of your financial credibility, you only add credence to the attacker's claim. Especially given the fact people don't usually make damning financial accusations like this if they arent true (for very obvious legal and ethical reasons). I dont know what to think one way or the other, but the entire matter is very strange.

Already having trouble filling positions! I was surprised to hear the jobs were filled with locals, seemed like a lot of people live outside the NEK. If they can pull this off it certainly sounds region altering.

As someone familiar with the biotech industry, I'd have fairly big concerns with the likelihood of the long-term viability of that company simply because the truth is small biotechs often either fail or the ones that succeed usually get gobbled up by bigger fish. They got $100 Million? Great for the company though, cant deny that. Not coincidentally, that biotech companies President of US ops is a Jay Peak co-owner. Incestuous much?

http://investing.businessweek.com/r...eviousCapId=737809&previousTitle=BIOHEART INC

 

[from_the_NEK]

With feedback from Steve in the Jay Peak Challenge thread grading my thoughts on the future hotel/lodges at Burke at a C+. I had a few minutes to revise. And I found this on the Jay Peak website...

PROJECT: Burke Mountain Resort
Timeline- 2013 through 2015
Total Investment- $108 million
Highlights- Burke Mountain is receiving over $1 million of snowmaking upgrades for the upcoming season. The most important addition Burke Mountain and its region needs is on-mountain accommodations. The new ownership company will construct over the next three years four mountain lodge facilities. (Each will look much like the Tram Haus Lodge at Jay Peak.) Two will be built just below the mid-Burke detachable quad. A third at the site of the current mid-Burke Lodge and the last at the base area near the Tamarack Grill.

IMHO I would not build a new lodge exactly where the current mid-lodge is located. As it is currently set up, coming of the East side of the mtn you hit the flats in front of the mid-lodge and have to navigate/skate/pole push through people going every which direction and skis that are all over the ground (the owners of which are inside). Once through those obstacles you then have to go around the far side of the lodge to get back to a downhill slope that brings you back to the lift. It is quite a cluster on weekends.

My new thinking has the Mid-lodge completely removed as well as the Bear Den :sad:. The new Hotel/lodge is shifted back toward the parking lot and angled to create more space between the slope and the lodge as well as faster/easier access to the lift.

If anyone is listening, please Keep the Bear Den open! Even if it has to be relocated.
This bar is far superior to the Golden Eagle that was scrapped at Jay as part of their redesign. No one complained very loudly about that.

Note that I didn't touch the hotels below the lift. There are a million different senarios on how those could be laid out so I'm not going to bother.

 

[thetrailboss]

Interesting. I hope that they take apart the Bear Den Lodge and attach it to the new building. That is the real deal. Folks spend millions to try and replicate that now.

 

[from_the_NEK]

Bear Den Solution...

Locating the Bear Den here would absolutely kick ass. The outside seating area would get sun all day long and the location right next to the lift would almost be like tailgating.

 

[thetrailboss]

Bear Den Solution...

Locating the Bear Den here would absolutely kick ass. The outside seating area would get sun all day long and the location right next to the lift would almost be like tailgating.

:lol: I love how the photoshopped buildings are all crooked. Jokes aside though that is a unique idea.

 

[thetrailboss]

I wonder if Jay would have purchased Burke if the new HSQ to the summit was not in. I can't emphasize again what a game changer that lift was for them. They went from only slow fixed grip lifts to probably being the only 2,000+ vertical foot mountain, if not one of the few places, that is completely accessed by high speed lifts.

 

[from_the_NEK]

:lol: I love how the photoshopped buildings are all crooked.

Hey! I spent 5 minutes on that

 

[from_the_NEK]

I wonder if Jay would have purchased Burke if the new HSQ to the summit was not in. I can't emphasize again what a game changer that lift was for them. They went from only slow fixed grip lifts to probably being the only 2,000+ vertical foot mountain, if not one of the few places, that is completely accessed by high speed lifts.

Technically the Willoughby quad is still there. I put the over/under at that lift being moved to the East Bowl within 3 years at 2:1.

 

[thetrailboss]

Hey! I spent 5 minutes on that

I have to give you a hard time. :lol:

And it will be interesting to see if they do make a terrain expansion over there and actually put the lift in. I wonder if they will use that lift. My understanding is that it will need a lot of upgrades if it is to be reused because a lot of the safety technology is currently grandfathered on it. That said, they can reuse a lot of it (chairs, sheeve trains, cross arms, terminals, etc).

 

[AdironRider]

I wonder if Jay would have purchased Burke if the new HSQ to the summit was not in. I can't emphasize again what a game changer that lift was for them. They went from only slow fixed grip lifts to probably being the only 2,000+ vertical foot mountain, if not one of the few places, that is completely accessed by high speed lifts.

Outside of Wildcat, I cant think of anywhere else. Sugarloaf comes pretty close (definitely more actual skiable terrain) off the superquad, but you cant get everywhere, notably the snowfields off it.

 

[Smellytele]

Outside of Wildcat, I cant think of anywhere else. Sugarloaf comes pretty close (definitely more actual skiable terrain) off the superquad, but you cant get everywhere, notably the snowfields off it.

Also the king pine area and the new Bracket basin