Big Burke announcement

[VTKilarney]

The latest snow report is in. They claim to have made snow from 10:00 am until 7:00 pm yesterday, which is really hard to believe - especially since they say that the temperature was between 30 and 34 degrees.

They say that the made snow on Lower Warren's Way and Midway. Midway is the trail that goes from the top of the Sherburne Express to the Mid-Burke Express.

Too add to the mystery, even though they claim to have made snow on two trails, they only had 15 guns going.

They are now hinting that opening day may be pushed back to December 19th. Even that seems optimistic.

 

[VTKilarney]

I noticed something odd when I was looking at Burke's Facebook page. The original press release stated that 20 fan guns were being installed. Their Facebook post on December 8th says that "all 17 fan guns were fired up" on Warren's Way.

Does anyone know how many fan guns were actually installed? Is it possible that there are three fan guns that are not on Warren's Way?

 

[oldtimer]

not sure of the exact count, but there are at least 2 fan guns on midway, down in the hollow by the base of the black chair.

 

[thetrailboss]

not sure of the exact count, but there are at least 2 fan guns on midway, down in the hollow by the base of the black chair.

That's what I recall seeing as well...a couple by the Willoughby Quad one by the MBX.


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[MEtoVTSkier]

Did they ever had out the complete snowmaking ugrade plans at that meeting last winter/spring/year? Curious as to what Phase 2 next summer will entail, as well as Phase 3 the following summer.

I hope the other 3 were placed on Midway, so they can at least keep the access from the SherburneX to the MidBurkeX well covered and able to be resurfaced quickly and easily (when the weather decides to cooperate).

Should have been one placed in front of the Hotel to cover the area from the Day lodge to the MBx, and the supposed magic carpet that is supposed to get everyone up the grade from the lodge to the lift...

 

[ScottySkis]

I 've said this before, but it's been quite a while, so I'll reiterate.

Q Burke Resort will either be bought as an RPT* or eventually go bankrupt.


*Rich person's toy

Bankruptcy then maybe Lazzzo will buy the place.

 

[VTKilarney]

Did they ever had out the complete snowmaking ugrade plans at that meeting last winter/spring/year? Curious as to what Phase 2 next summer will entail, as well as Phase 3 the following summer.

My recollection is that they handed out a letter that addressed what they were going to do this past summer. There were no details beyond that.

 

[River19]

Hmmmm.......pull together a boatload of EB-5 investors, charge them $50K each for "handling", sell some land along the way from one shell company to another, build the hotel, while maintaining a razor thin P&L at the mountain and then claim the mgt company is bankrupt and ride away with all the management fees, property profit etc.....

Not saying that is what they are doing, but while everyone sits around waiting for skiing one has time to speculate and start internet rumors.....

You know what they say abut idle minds.........

 

[VTKilarney]

Except that there is definitely a "keeping up appearances" show going on until the last EB-5 cow has been milked.

 

[the original trailboss]

I think they are "filing it up to sell". Vail needs a eastern-mt-Brighton.


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Unfortunately, the next owner gets the 116-room to deal with/support

 

[River19]

Except that there is definitely a "keeping up appearances" show going on until the last EB-5 cow has been milked.

That is kinda my point; I don't want to believe that is the case, but on days like this, part of me goes.......what is the angle here?

I ask about the angle because.......

If you were truly interested running a ski mountain, then heading into your second or third season, don't you think would have invested in at least learning how to run a ski area in the northeast? That is where I smell something fishy.....

You can run a mountain lean, but something always suffers, we know that.....but here's the thing, if I were to have to run a mountain lean until my full vision of a packed hotel driving many more skier visits and F&B sales can be realized.......why would I do anything to impact the actual product people come to consume? Meaning the snow making and mountain ops......

I would shut down my struggling F&B business for renovations, short staff ticket counters, rental shops, building maintenance etc. everything BUT do everything but sell a kidney to make sure our snow product is our calling card. Because skiers will come to ski awesome trails with plenty of snow and great conditions and deal with limited to no additional services for a season or two as long as there is a plan.

They don't give a shit about the comedy show in the bear den when every skier was stuck in the same lift line for the one continuous route from the top that was beaten to death by noon because you cut your actual ability to make snow.

My point is, anyone with an ounce of brains would quickly conclude that you would stop damn near every other part of the business before you let the snow product suffer. Without a good snow product you have a building at the base of a mountain, not a ski resort.

Now if these are supposedly smart people, and I have no reason to believe they aren't, then if they haven't taken the most obvious path to success as a ski mountain, then perhaps their primary motivation wasn't the long term success of a ski resort after all.

And that is why I'm conflicted.

 

[VTKilarney]

My opinion...

Quiros Sr. is not a person who intends to lose money (except for lost potential thanks to Ary Jr.). As soon as Q Burke becomes unprofitable, he will cease throwing money into it. So long as there is sufficient EB-5 money to be had, and sufficient administrative fees, Quiros will keep Q Burke alive because he needs it to keep the EB-5 funds rolling.

But there are some troubling signs:
1) The state is paying much closer attention to these projects. For example, it looks like the days of buying a parcel of real estate for a low price and selling it for an unjustifiable price to an EB-5 project are over.
2) The SEC is breathing down their necks. I would not rule out formal action by the SEC. If the SEC takes formal action, the EB-5 gravy train is over. Look for Stenger to enter into a cooperation deal if that happens.
3) EB-5 money isn't rolling in like it used to. They have received a lot of bad press and there is a lot more competition for EB-5 funds. Look at how AnC Bio and the downtown Newport project seem to be stalled. This isn't just bad luck, IMHO. You've also got later stage investors that have yet to be paid, and an unrealistic balloon payment coming for the phase-1 investors. They can only keep all of those investors at bay for so long.

I think that this summer will be a real test. There is no doubt that Quiros has steadfastly refused to do what was needed for the snowmaking system for the past three years. They got lucky this past summer because they could pretend that they did something of value thanks to the fan guns that benefit Burke Mountain Academy. My guess is that they will do just enough this summer to keep up appearances, but nothing more. If this happens it's an indication that they are not invested in the mountain for the long term. And once they start spending more than the EB-5 scheme brings in, my guess is that they will sell the resort.

But what do I know... These are all just guesses on my part.

 

[VTKilarney]

Here is an update on the EB-5 legislation:
http://www.globest.com/news/12_1255...mnibus-Spending-Bill-Is-Settled-364145-1.html

 

[Big Wave Dave]

some interesting points. But I like to simplify.

What if they just gambled and lost?

meaning- last xmas they lost revenue and ski days due to no snowmaking, poor conditions. We all know xmas week is the BIG week for a ski area. However, up until the weekend before, there was tons of natural snow. Biggest december in awhile. Why commit funds to pay for snowmaking? whoops, because you really needed it. gamble and lose #1

Gamble and lose #2- try to snow the crowd over (apologize for that, it was too easy) with statements about new guns, and hope that this minimal investment will make a noticeable difference. Enter the warmest driest fall/early winter for decades. No ability to open when stated and slowly ramp uo to a xmas with alot of terrain. Lose #2.

This is not meant to negate statements about bad management, but I am willing to bet the truth bends more to this than some nefarious ponzi scheme orchestrated by the arch-villain Ary Sr.

Also, if the SEC sniffed something was off here, they would have shut it down and asked questions after the fact. At worst they will find some accounting irregularities and slap some wrists. They would never let a scheme continue to sell to new investors if they thought the deal was bad.

 

[River19]

some interesting points. But I like to simplify.

What if they just gambled and lost?

meaning- last xmas they lost revenue and ski days due to no snowmaking, poor conditions. We all know xmas week is the BIG week for a ski area. However, up until the weekend before, there was tons of natural snow. Biggest december in awhile. Why commit funds to pay for snowmaking? whoops, because you really needed it. gamble and lose #1

Gamble and lose #2- try to snow the crowd over (apologize for that, it was too easy) with statements about new guns, and hope that this minimal investment will make a noticeable difference. Enter the warmest driest fall/early winter for decades. No ability to open when stated and slowly ramp uo to a xmas with alot of terrain. Lose #2.

This is not meant to negate statements about bad management, but I am willing to bet the truth bends more to this than some nefarious ponzi scheme orchestrated by the arch-villain Ary Sr.

Also, if the SEC sniffed something was off here, they would have shut it down and asked questions after the fact. At worst they will find some accounting irregularities and slap some wrists. They would never let a scheme continue to sell to new investors if they thought the deal was bad.

I believe in my heart this is closer to the truth. I just don't want to believe they are that monumentally stupid. It's a dumb-ass gamble.....best case, you barely keep up mid pack with the ski conditions as every other mountain would benefit, worst case.....you are among the poorest performers with your ass flapping in the wind as other mountains bury you in man made snow.....

While you eat all the Grand Opening Celebration Buffet shrimp by yourself in your new hotel.

A gamble like that with a $55M project? Seems like a shitty gamble to me......

 

[VTKilarney]

That may very well be close to reality.

But the bottom line remains... Ary Sr. isn't in the business of losing money. If he sees no light at the end of the tunnel I just don't see him holding onto Q Burke and throwing good money after bad.


.

 

[zeke]

some interesting points. But I like to simplify.

What if they just gambled and lost?

meaning- last xmas they lost revenue and ski days due to no snowmaking, poor conditions. We all know xmas week is the BIG week for a ski area. However, up until the weekend before, there was tons of natural snow. Biggest december in awhile. Why commit funds to pay for snowmaking? whoops, because you really needed it. gamble and lose #1

Gamble and lose #2- try to snow the crowd over (apologize for that, it was too easy) with statements about new guns, and hope that this minimal investment will make a noticeable difference. Enter the warmest driest fall/early winter for decades. No ability to open when stated and slowly ramp uo to a xmas with alot of terrain. Lose #2.

This is not meant to negate statements about bad management, but I am willing to bet the truth bends more to this than some nefarious ponzi scheme orchestrated by the arch-villain Ary Sr.

Also, if the SEC sniffed something was off here, they would have shut it down and asked questions after the fact. At worst they will find some accounting irregularities and slap some wrists. They would never let a scheme continue to sell to new investors if they thought the deal was bad.

so was AnC Bio another gamble that just didn't hit? i assumed it was because the company no longer existed in Korea where it was supposedly headquartered. how about the airport? or the Newport downtown project?

if so and you're correct, these supposedly "intelligent businessmen" are the worst gamblers ever or God hates them.

Or there's something else behind the scenes. i'd be curious to know how much of the land for the above proposed EB5 projects Q bought–or attempted to buy–before they were announced.

correct me if i'm wrong, but I'm certain I saw a list of hotel costs in an EB5 breakdown and the land line item was more than i've heard Q paid for the resort. if that's accurate, the resort was basically free. EB5 funds are gravy.

Not saying he and stenger are super-villains, just greedy b@sta@rds with no actual heart for anything about the mountain or its community. so to keep the cash coming in for now, they divert attention from the deplorable way the place is run and flat out lie about how much they have or will put into the place.

and I guess i don't have as much faith in the SEC as you do 2008 kinda jaded me.

 

[VTKilarney]

Here is a very good opinion piece about AnC Bio. You know... the plant that "broke ground" in May.

http://vtdigger.org/2015/05/25/tim-loucks-anc-bio-a-groundbreaking-with-no-politicians/

 

[faQ]

Unfortunately, the next owner gets the 116-room to deal with/support

No doubt, it makes me nervous. Historically, deep pockets have come to the rescue. Now they have to be REALLY deep. What ever happened to "we're getting the Sochi snowmaking gurus"?


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[River19]

No doubt, it makes me nervous. Historically, deep pockets have come to the rescue. Now they have to be REALLY deep. What ever happened to "we're getting the Sochi snowmaking gurus"?


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And so let's just say you are one of the foremost firms that specializes in snow making......so good that Putin hires your firm to handle the winter games.......and then you send a group to Little ol' East Burke and you are thinking, well it might be worth the time given the size of the mountain and acreage and how the whole system needs to be replaced/built.

Then you get here and tell the Qs what they would need and how much it would cost and then the Qs keep whittling down the Platinum package to the Gold to the Silver all the way to "what about if we just get like 20 fan guns for the BMA slope and call that 'Phase 1' and maybe we'll do more later".

Would you be really happy with your name being thrown around the product they have out there now?

"Oh crap we ran out of water"

"We got 17 guns going and we're excited !!!!!"