powderfreak
New member
- Joined
- Jan 9, 2007
- Messages
- 256
- Points
- 0
Confidence is rising on a quick 1-2 day cold snap that could bring flakes
all the way to the valley floor and accumulations to the hills. Ski areas
will also likely be testing the snowmaking systems during this cold snap. A
cold front will push through during the day on Tuesday with a surface low
riding along the front through NNE/S.Que. It is behind this low where the
excitement will be...a cyclonic NNW flow will impact the North Country later
in the day on Tuesday and Tuesday night causing upslope precipitation...with
critical temps/thicknesses easily supporting elevation snow. It should even
get cold enough for some mixed rain/snow showers Tuesday evening/night in
the larger valleys.
This time of year, to get flakes in the valleys I like to see 850 temps of
-6C to -8C. GFS and the Canadian are quite cold with 850mb temps down to
-12C, but I think this is just their mid-range cold bias; I figure we'll
peak near -8C which is cold enough to support snow to the ski area bases in
central/northern VT and Adirondacks. This cold will come in quickly during
the day on Tuesday with falling temps in the mountains, and steady to slowly
falling temps in the valleys.
There will not be a ton of moisture to work with, but I'm expecting .25-.33"
of liquid along the immediate spine of the Green Mountains from Sugarbush to
Jay Peak after it becomes cold enough to snow. Elevations above 2,500ft
could experience a flash-freeze so I'm not really worried about getting snow
to accumulate up there...it will start to stick as soon as it changes. I'm
thinking 2-4" above 2,500ft. Between 1,500-2,500ft wet ground and 32-34F
temps will lead to slower accumulation...expect 1-2". Below 1,500ft
accumulations could still occur, with a coating-1" possible anywhere above
800ft. Below 800ft, probably isn't happening but if you get a heavier
shower on Tue Night it could briefly whiten elevated surfaces.
Precipitation tapers off as flurries early Wed morning in the upslope
regions and the junkboards should be out Wednesday AM. Wednesday will be
the coldest day of the season with highs in the 30s mtns to low 40s larger
valleys. With high pressure overhead on Wednesday night, we'll see
widespread teens and 20s for lows. I'm guessing most mountains will be
testing the snowmaking systems on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the
airmass dries out.
-Scott
Mansfield forecast from NWS...nice to see "snow likely" showing back up and
a sub-freezing high on Wednesday:
Tuesday: Rain showers likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37.
Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth
and quarter of an inch possible.
Tuesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of
precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of
precipitation is 30%.
all the way to the valley floor and accumulations to the hills. Ski areas
will also likely be testing the snowmaking systems during this cold snap. A
cold front will push through during the day on Tuesday with a surface low
riding along the front through NNE/S.Que. It is behind this low where the
excitement will be...a cyclonic NNW flow will impact the North Country later
in the day on Tuesday and Tuesday night causing upslope precipitation...with
critical temps/thicknesses easily supporting elevation snow. It should even
get cold enough for some mixed rain/snow showers Tuesday evening/night in
the larger valleys.
This time of year, to get flakes in the valleys I like to see 850 temps of
-6C to -8C. GFS and the Canadian are quite cold with 850mb temps down to
-12C, but I think this is just their mid-range cold bias; I figure we'll
peak near -8C which is cold enough to support snow to the ski area bases in
central/northern VT and Adirondacks. This cold will come in quickly during
the day on Tuesday with falling temps in the mountains, and steady to slowly
falling temps in the valleys.
There will not be a ton of moisture to work with, but I'm expecting .25-.33"
of liquid along the immediate spine of the Green Mountains from Sugarbush to
Jay Peak after it becomes cold enough to snow. Elevations above 2,500ft
could experience a flash-freeze so I'm not really worried about getting snow
to accumulate up there...it will start to stick as soon as it changes. I'm
thinking 2-4" above 2,500ft. Between 1,500-2,500ft wet ground and 32-34F
temps will lead to slower accumulation...expect 1-2". Below 1,500ft
accumulations could still occur, with a coating-1" possible anywhere above
800ft. Below 800ft, probably isn't happening but if you get a heavier
shower on Tue Night it could briefly whiten elevated surfaces.
Precipitation tapers off as flurries early Wed morning in the upslope
regions and the junkboards should be out Wednesday AM. Wednesday will be
the coldest day of the season with highs in the 30s mtns to low 40s larger
valleys. With high pressure overhead on Wednesday night, we'll see
widespread teens and 20s for lows. I'm guessing most mountains will be
testing the snowmaking systems on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the
airmass dries out.
-Scott
Mansfield forecast from NWS...nice to see "snow likely" showing back up and
a sub-freezing high on Wednesday:
Tuesday: Rain showers likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37.
Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth
and quarter of an inch possible.
Tuesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of
precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of
precipitation is 30%.
