COVID concerns in the Northeast

[tnt1234]

This stat is skewed as NH also has the lowest testing numbers per 100,000 population in new England. In fact, about 1/7th the rate of VT which skews NH positive% higher though may not indicate actual reality. Ahh, statistics. Meaningless without figuring the baseline and evaluating accordingly.

I think hospitalizations and deaths is probably a better comparrison - really, either per capita or total - since the two states are similar in size and geography.

 

[drjeff]

VT will be the last state to relax any guidelines. Guaranteed.

Agree 100%

Although I doubt that they'll change how they're "enforcing" their guidelines at all between now and whenever Gov Scott formerly removes the restrictions.

They'll likely make some media noise about the colleges as the students come back on campus (based on what a patient of mine who is a UVM student told me last week, UVM is bringing their students back on campus this coming weekend), but unless things DRASTICALLY change with indisputable proof that a major outbreak was tied directly to ski area operations, I strongly suspect that what VT has been doing all ski season will be the same the rest of the ski season

 

[thebigo]

The NYT is now tracking excess deaths by state. Adjusted for population and sample size, Maine has preformed best in new england since March 2020, followed by NH and then VT. To be fair the results in the three northern new england states are extraordinarily similar, the differences can likely be attributed to noise.

574,000 More U.S. Deaths Than Normal Since Covid-19 Struck (Published 2021)

Since the coronavirus pandemic began sweeping across the country last year, deaths have been 21 percent above normal. See the breakdown by state.

www.nytimes.com

 

[tnt1234]

As much as I enjoy a good dive bar, sitting in one all day during a pandemic doesn't seem like a good idea. Nor does getting back in the car with the guy who just sat in a bar all day. But I guess it will take a few days for the bar sitter to become contagious.

 

[tnt1234]

The NYT is now tracking excess deaths by state. Adjusted for population and sample size, Maine has preformed best in new england since March 2020, followed by NH and then VT. To be fair the results in the three northern new england states are extraordinarily similar, the differences can likely be attributed to noise.

574,000 More U.S. Deaths Than Normal Since Covid-19 Struck (Published 2021)

Since the coronavirus pandemic began sweeping across the country last year, deaths have been 21 percent above normal. See the breakdown by state.

www.nytimes.com

Wow - look at that NYC graph....


So it that the best metric to compare? that would suggest no meaningful benefit to VT's strict protocols?

 

[tnt1234]

Wow - look at that NYC graph....


So it that the best metric to compare? that would suggest no meaningful benefit to VT's strict protocols?

Something seems off - if NH has about 1,000 total deaths and VT has 172, how could their average death increases be similar?

 

[thebigo]

Something seems off - if NH has about 1,000 total deaths and VT has 172, how could their average death increases be similar?

Per NYT: NH has 1000 total excess deaths. VT has 500 total excess deaths.

NH has >2X VT population. VT data is only reported through 12/26, NH is reported through 1/9. There is certainly noise in the data but I doubt the noise is sufficient to change the conclusion.

 

[tumbler]

Agree 100%

Although I doubt that they'll change how they're "enforcing" their guidelines at all between now and whenever Gov Scott formerly removes the restrictions.

They'll likely make some media noise about the colleges as the students come back on campus (based on what a patient of mine who is a UVM student told me last week, UVM is bringing their students back on campus this coming weekend), but unless things DRASTICALLY change with indisputable proof that a major outbreak was tied directly to ski area operations, I strongly suspect that what VT has been doing all ski season will be the same the rest of the ski season

There's currently an outbreak of 70+ cases at Norwich University

Norwich University sees nearly 70 COVID cases

Norwich University is reporting nearly 70 COVID cases since they started testing earlier this month for the start of the spring semester. Right now, students are in a modified room quarantine to help contain the spread.

www.wcax.com

 

[flakeydog]

Something seems off - if NH has about 1,000 total deaths and VT has 172, how could their average death increases be similar?

NH has 2.2x more people so 172 vs 1,000 --math, math, stats, stats, yada yada, carry the 2...-- makes sense to me!

Seems so silly that Vermont has such draconian communist measures in place when they only have 20% of the cases and deaths of our neighbor to the east. It's so unfair that we cant hang out in bars like the NH people. Wait, maybe there is something to be said here... I know, open the bars and let in the masses so we can level the playing field.

 

[thebigo]

NH has 2.2x more people so 172 vs 1,000 --math, math, stats, stats, yada yada, carry the 2...-- makes sense to me!

Seems so silly that Vermont has such draconian communist measures in place when they only have 20% of the cases and deaths of our neighbor to the east. It's so unfair that we cant hang out in bars like the NH people. Wait, maybe there is something to be said here... I know, open the bars and let in the masses so we can level the playing field.

You are comparing total reported covid deaths with excess deaths. The definition of apples to oranges.

Approximate total excess deaths in VT per link: 500
Approximate total excess deaths in NH per link: 1000

 

[flakeydog]

You are comparing total reported covid deaths with excess deaths. The definition of apples to oranges.

Approximate total excess deaths in VT per link: 500
Approximate total excess deaths in NH per link: 1000

Actually, I was comparing actual deaths to actual deaths, not excess deaths. Just found it interesting that NH has 2X the population and over 5X the cases and deaths that VT has. I was attempting a light-hearted effort to highlight this while many people bitch an moan about VT and their awful (and supposedly ineffective) restrictions.

I think the excess death analysis loses too much accuracy when applied to smaller populations. It means a lot more when looked at in aggregate over a larger population, larger states, regions, the country as a whole.

 

[tnt1234]

NH has 2.2x more people so 172 vs 1,000 --math, math, stats, stats, yada yada, carry the 2...-- makes sense to me!

Seems so silly that Vermont has such draconian communist measures in place when they only have 20% of the cases and deaths of our neighbor to the east. It's so unfair that we cant hang out in bars like the NH people. Wait, maybe there is something to be said here... I know, open the bars and let in the masses so we can level the playing field.

172x2.2=378.

----oh - I see your point and agree.

 

[LasersInTheTaiga]

It is almost certain. I would've said NY and CA too but they figured out they have economies to protect. Didn't VT already send out a memo saying to expect quarantine restrictions until at least Labor Day? Or was that just a rumor?

Yeah, Labor Day of 2030

 

[thebigo]

Actually, I was comparing actual deaths to actual deaths, not excess deaths. Just found it interesting that NH has 2X the population and over 5X the cases and deaths that VT has. I was attempting a light-hearted effort to highlight this while many people bitch an moan about VT and their awful (and supposedly ineffective) restrictions.

I think the excess death analysis loses too much accuracy when applied to smaller populations. It means a lot more when looked at in aggregate over a larger population, larger states, regions, the country as a whole.

The specific number of deaths attributed to covid only matters if you believe the dead person and their family care how their death was recorded.

The data suggests that the likelihood of death for a Vermont resident increased more than the likelihood of death for a Maine or New Hampshire resident since the start of the pandemic.

I got no skin in this game, I have not left NH in nearly a year and have no plans to leave anytime soon. I only posted because the data surprised me and I am open to other data but just discounting excess deaths because it does not suit a narrative is not persuasive.

 

[tumbler]

Yeah, Labor Day of 2030

I think this is a legacy thing for Gov Scott, saying that his state had the lowest numbers throughout the pandemic. Even Fauci did a presser with Scott saying that VT is the best. Maybe he has larger aspirations like a Fed position.

 

[1dog]

Seems its always about personal career growth, doesn't it? Left or right.

Well, until cases don;'t have monetary attachments, I won't fully trust them. It was $13K per Covid case in hospitals and $39K per ventilator case in Spring. Don't know if that's changed. But you wouldn't want to be Gov Cuomo at this point on track record.

NY Nursing Home Deaths May Have Been 50% Higher Than Reported, AG's Office Says

New York may have undercounted COVID-19 deaths among nursing home residents by thousands, the state attorney general charged in a report Thursday that dealt a blow to Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s oft-repeated claims that his state is doing better than others in protecting its most vulnerable. The 76-page...

www.nbcnewyork.com

 

[JimG.]

Seems its always about personal career growth, doesn't it? Left or right.

Well, until cases don;'t have monetary attachments, I won't fully trust them. It was $13K per Covid case in hospitals and $39K per ventilator case in Spring. Don't know if that's changed. But you wouldn't want to be Gov Cuomo at this point on track record.

NY Nursing Home Deaths May Have Been 50% Higher Than Reported, AG's Office Says

New York may have undercounted COVID-19 deaths among nursing home residents by thousands, the state attorney general charged in a report Thursday that dealt a blow to Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s oft-repeated claims that his state is doing better than others in protecting its most vulnerable. The 76-page...

www.nbcnewyork.com

Will they take Cuomo's Emmy away?

I loved my parents more than anything, but I'm glad they both passed away (from old age) a few years ago.

 

[ss20]

I think this is a legacy thing for Gov Scott, saying that his state had the lowest numbers throughout the pandemic. Even Fauci did a presser with Scott saying that VT is the best. Maybe he has larger aspirations like a Fed position.

I think that is partially it, partially because he could get away with it given the high Democrat % of VT, partially due to the fact that a good chunk of VT'ers really don't like outsiders/tourists (major can of worms opening alert), and yes, partially because VT hospital infrastructure could not handle a sizable outbreak.

Overall I believe a majority of the state (slim majority) will be happy with his response.

 

[flakeydog]

I think this is a legacy thing for Gov Scott, saying that his state had the lowest numbers throughout the pandemic. Even Fauci did a presser with Scott saying that VT is the best. Maybe he has larger aspirations like a Fed position.

Yeah, that's got to be it. It's all about the numbers and getting a big 'ol pat on the back, right? How narcissistic of him!

I would say all the way back to the days of the Green Mountain Boys, Vermont could give two shits what the rest of the country thinks of us. See "Exhibit A" below

 

[LasersInTheTaiga]

Vermont without the rest of the country would just be West Virginia 2 in terms of quality of life, poverty levels, and health outcomes. So, enjoy that, I guess.