Have yearly snow averages decreased?

[AdironRider]

OK the first point I have to make is that average temps are up, what 1 degree since the late 1800's. OH MY GOD! Look, its still going to snow. Second, All the data shows little to no correlation between the average temp going up a degree, and less snowfall. I know Whiteface did 25% better than its yearly average last season....

 

[mister moose]

From Jay Peak:

http://www.mssi.ca/en/jay_peak/918/



YEAR
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
TOTAL

2005/06 12 115 53 71 79 13 343
2004/05 19 91 49 81 83 4 327
2003/04 31 163 57 51 39 20 361
2002/03 53 60 63 49 59 20 304
2001/02 16 72 132 51 89 18 378
2000/01 61 133 105 98 181 3 581
1999/00 80 67 112 119 46 64 488
1998/99 20 28 105 35 113 4 305
1997/98 63 113 54 35 88 2 355
1996/97 46 77 102 68 87 27 407
1995/96 8 119 34 103 82 88 434
1994/95 15 28 71 110 33 19 276
1993/94 21 62 103 106 97 38 427
1992/93 13 50 76 108 77 23 347
1991/92 20 94 57 91 60 51 373
1990/91 68 51 74 62 26 14 295
1989/90 69 80 107 53 52 26 387
1988/89 5 71 68 52 47 53 296
1987/88 17 58 42 79 28 2 226
1986/87 22 41 108 40 38 8 257
1985/86 2 76 81 63 32 28 282
1984/85 26 78 67 42 66 44 323
1983/84 35 139 46 56 54 3 333
1982/83 14 26 98 40 55 14 247
1981/82 73 102 45 79 55 27 381
10-YEAR AVG. 40 92 83 66 86 18 385
20-YEAR AVG. 33 79 79 73 70 25 358

The table doesn't display, so go to the web page, but the first numbers are the year, middle numbers are monthly snowfalls, and the last is the annual snowfall.

Killington's historical snowfall:

http://www.snowdaze.com/killington-historical-snowfall.php

 

[KingM]

I put together this animation using the Mansfield stake data from 1990-91 to 2006-07:

Certainly no real trends there. I guess the biggest observation I can make is let's hope for another 1995-96 or 200-01 and not 1990-91 or 1994-95. :blink: Since 2004-05, the winters have been a bit below average with last year looking the most screwy of all of them so perhaps we're due for another big one?

That really puts things in perspective. As much as we've complained at times these last couple of years, there were a couple of times in the 90s that looked terrible, especially 94-95.

 

[marcski]

I'm going to hypothesize and say the winters have gotten more extremes. Either crazy warm in midwinter or big deep snows. I'm not sure if this correlates with ski country up in New England, but as far as down here in the NYC metro area, it seems that there used to be more of a steady snowpack during winter. Although, this could also just be my memory of grandeur when I was younger. Now it seems as though we either get huge dumps and then it melts quickly. Query?>>?

 

[AdironRider]

I know that as of MLK day on campus at St. Lawrence we got a couple inches and I didnt see the ground again until almost April. That seemed like pretty stable snowpack to me.

 

[bobbutts]

OK the first point I have to make is that average temps are up, what 1 degree since the late 1800's. OH MY GOD! Look, its still going to snow. Second, All the data shows little to no correlation between the average temp going up a degree, and less snowfall. I know Whiteface did 25% better than its yearly average last season....

You are right when it comes to annual snowfall. The one degree doesn't significantly affect that total number at New England resorts. The snowfall is distributed a bit differently with fewer cold northern stream systems and more coastal storms, so more big storms, and fewer little condition refreshers. Also some extra thaws throughout the season.
This may not be "OH MY GOD!" territory, but it also is not to be dismissed.

 

[ski_resort_observer]

Old people only remember good winters from 20-30 years ago, and just think every winter was like that. There were some truly horrible winters in the 60's, way worse than any of the last few. They are the unsung heroes of the ski resort business.

(Ducks for cover from SRO and OSM)

you seem like a good kid so I'll let that one pass....:lol:

I agree with marcski's assessment in that only consistent thing about the snowfall in the last 10 years is the inconsistency. This combined with the low profit margins has made the job of putting a good product on the slopes for customers much harder and leaves me with being very impressed with the mountain opps folks we have at resorts these days.

 

[AdironRider]

You are right when it comes to annual snowfall. The one degree doesn't significantly affect that total number at New England resorts. The snowfall is distributed a bit differently with fewer cold northern stream systems and more coastal storms, so more big storms, and fewer little condition refreshers. Also some extra thaws throughout the season.
This may not be "OH MY GOD!" territory, but it also is not to be dismissed.

Prove anything you just said to occur, other than the year before last, with any form of scientific data. There wasnt a sustained thaw last season for over 2 months. What extra thaws are you speaking of? I just dont buy into the fact that one extra degree of temperature is causing all that you say it is.

I really think its a kind of halo effect or whatever you want to call it in that when you look back to the days of lore you remember only the good stuff, and none of the bad. I for one remember as a kid asking my parents why the snow would always melt away before we got more, and that was in the early nineties, I doubt it was much different in the 70's. Maybe Im just to young to have had the effect taken on me. Look at the data posted for Sugarloaf, several years in the 50', 60's, etc all had awful snow years, some of the worst on record with only 60,70, and 80 inches of total snowfall (and this is spread out over several decades). It must have been global warming! No it wasnt, its just natural cycles that are pretty much unpredicatable.

 

[bobbutts]

Prove anything you just said to occur, other than the year before last, with any form of scientific data. There wasnt a sustained thaw last season for over 2 months. What extra thaws are you speaking of? I just dont buy into the fact that one extra degree of temperature is causing all that you say it is.

I really think its a kind of halo effect or whatever you want to call it in that when you look back to the days of lore you remember only the good stuff, and none of the bad. I for one remember as a kid asking my parents why the snow would always melt away before we got more, and that was in the early nineties, I doubt it was much different in the 70's. Maybe Im just to young to have had the effect taken on me. Look at the data posted for Sugarloaf, several years in the 50', 60's, etc all had awful snow years, some of the worst on record with only 60,70, and 80 inches of total snowfall (and this is spread out over several decades). It must have been global warming! No it wasnt, its just natural cycles that are pretty much unpredicatable.

I'll try to find some supporting data. I certainly didn't want to make a global warming debate as that cannot be resolved at all in this thread. Just trends and observations. One degree (I got that number from you ) is not a solid single degree added to all temperatures all the time either. I'm not arguing that changes would be all negative either. The Jay numbers seem to argue otherwise as do Sugarloaf. That's actually supports what I'm saying, the colder places are getting more snow from the increased moisture. And on the other hand the workable season is getting less in the marginal places in the south and lowlands.

 

[bobbutts]

http://airmap.unh.edu/background/extremeEvents.html
"The long-term trend in the number of larger storms appears to be more variable than that of the general decline in 1-5 inch snowfalls over the 50+ years of record."

It's thin support, and they have some numbers only for Hanover and Durham NH.