Hurricane Bill: Threat to NE?

[billski]

This is one cool site
http://www.stormpulse.com/
The models all get mapped on a simple, easy to visualize map.
Looks like our landfall prognostications don't fair well by any model.
Wish there was something like this for winter storms.....

 

[Johnskiismore]

That ia cool weather site!

 

[riverc0il]

Some of you guys sound like you are rooting for a natural disaster to strike this region...

...then again, I root for blizzards. But at least I enjoy those. I can't see getting my kicks in a hurricane!

 

[Glenn]

Marc hasn't weighed in on this one yet. He must be out buying more 2-cycle oil...

Looks like this will head out to sea after all. Well, that's what the "computers" are showing now.

 

[billski]

Some of you guys sound like you are rooting for a natural disaster to strike this region...



...then again, I root for blizzards. But at least I enjoy those. I can't see getting my kicks in a hurricane!

Good one! That's the problem I have with computer communications; the non-verbals all get lost and the message gets scrambled. I just bore easily, always looking for something to spice up life. Have no interested in seeing lives at state or homes destroyed.

 

[thetrailboss]

Looks like this will head out to sea after all. Well, that's what the "computers" are showing now.

That's interesting...Roger Hill is saying that there are different models including the Canadian model (which is good for the tropics he says) which has the hurricane coming within 100 miles of Cape Cod.

 

[deadheadskier]

That's interesting...Roger Hill is saying that there are different models including the Canadian model (which is good for the tropics he says) which has the hurricane coming within 100 miles of Cape Cod.

100 miles on that side of the storm west-northwest quadrant will register barely more than a large T storm on the Cape unless the thing is HUGE. It'll probably kick up the surf for a day or two, but it shouldn't be a big deal. I was less than 20 miles NW from the eye of where Charlie (cat 4 at landfall) hit in Florida and was like, "That's it?" however, 20 miles south of the storm saw some fairly significant damage.

 

[thetrailboss]

To be clear, the Canadian Model had it tracking 100 miles east of Cape Cod. Not sure if that is referring to the eye of the storm or not.

 

[deadheadskier]

To be clear, the Canadian Model had it tracking 100 miles east of Cape Cod. Not sure if that is referring to the eye of the storm or not.

yep gotcha

with the storm tracking east, that puts the Cape in the West / Northwest quadrant, generally the safest side of a hurricane to be on. I don't claim to be a meteorologist, but having lived through 3 hurricanes all within 75 miles or so of me in Florida during the summer of 2004; I watched a lot of TV :lol: Well, at least while I had power.

 

[billski]

That's interesting...Roger Hill is saying that there are different models including the Canadian model (which is good for the tropics he says) which has the hurricane coming within 100 miles of Cape Cod.

True, however, that model is way off from what all the other models are modeling. Check out this page, http://www.stormpulse.com/ and click on the "Forecast Models" button (right side) - you can see all the model tracks at once. It's the NOGAPS model that gets within 100 miles.

 

[bobbutts]

Looks most likely to be out to sea, but Maine and Cape Cod are still in the game according to nhc 5 day forecast cone. Stay tuned, very unlikely but not impossible that we'll be affacted.

 

[billski]

Looks most likely to be out to sea, but Maine and Cape Cod are still in the game according to nhc 5 day forecast cone. Stay tuned, very unlikely but not impossible that we'll be affacted.

I don't think any forecaster is ready to throw in the towel yet. There still poses a real threat to the coast.

The latest models bring it within 150 nautical miles of Boston and the consensus within 400 NM of Boston. The NHC also notes: "
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5

Hurricane force winds extend out 80 miles and tropical force winds extend outwards 175 miles
presently, primarily to the Northeast.

However, the big deflector is an imminent front:
"A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FORCING
BILL TO TURN NORTHWARD A GOOD DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST
COAST. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WHICH IN FACT HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT IN
TURNING BILL NORTHWARD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS."

 

[drjeff]

About the only CERTAIN thing about Bill is the reports later this week about folks getting swept out by rip current at the beaches up and down the East coast

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

About the only CERTAIN thing about Bill is the reports later this week about folks getting swept out by rip current at the beaches up and down the East coast

one of my fears back when I used to go to the beach..I once went like two blocks in one..

 

[drjeff]

I'm thinking that I might have to head down to the RI South Shore beaches on Sunday with my camera based on this estimate

DEFINATELY NOT going in the water based on that!

 

[Greg]

DEFINATELY NOT going in the water based on that!

Baby.

 

[drjeff]

Baby.

Yup, I'm more than likely going to be a wuss and somehow resist the temptation to do an epic body surfing face plant into the not so sandy bottom at East Matunick Beach in RI

I'll have to limit my excitement to watching folks puke over the side of the Block Island Ferry (if it's even running) as it heads back into Point Judith :lol:

 

[RootDKJ]

I'm thinking that I might have to head down to the RI South Shore beaches on Sunday with my camera based on this estimate

DEFINATELY NOT going in the water based on that!

I might have to do the same at the Jersey Shore!

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

I might have to do the same at the Jersey Shore!

Gonna be some darn good boogie-boarding..

I'm sure the lifeguards won't let anybody in the water..it's a good thing alot of Jersey Shore towns dredged sand from the ocean to expand dunes and beaches cause this could be a humdinger..

I'm gonna buy more toilet paper and Milk..I'm 90 miles inland but you can never be too safe..

 

[drjeff]

I might have to do the same at the Jersey Shore!

Here's Saturday's current estimates for 'ya Root - not too much difference Sat to Sun for the Jersey Shore per the current thoughts