is december gonna be a wash

[ajl50]

I've been pretty certain, and have said so many times, that around the 20-22nd of this month we would see winter return and NE would get some real snow between then and the 27th. Furthermore I was pretty confident that this would mark a long term return to NORMAL temps.
Well up to this am that is. The pattern is the pattern and it's not changing. Warm will be the rule and normal will be cold and it will be short lived. Sorry. Feb. is the only winter month I actually believe in right now. Analog years, teleconnection models, the pacific jet forecast, the Atlantic ocean temperatures, the temps in Canada- all of them just don't give me any confidence anymore.
Best hope is for 10-12 days of ok weather starting middle of this week and then some light natural snow till the 1st. After that welcome back mild air frustration till feb.
(best news however could be that this is a year where spring really doesn't arrive until late april)

 

[loafer89]

The latest NOAA forecast is for a brief period of cold weather next week, followed by rain on friday-saturday and more mild temperatures.

If this weather pattern does not change soon it will start hurting the ski areas really hard.

 

[KingM]

It already is hurting. Speaking as an innkeeper near MRG and Sugarbush, our reservations are way down for Christmas. Almost everyone who had a reservation this last weekend cancelled, and next weekend is looking dead. It can all turn around in a hurry with one big storm and a bit of cold weather, but nothing like that is on the horizon.

Come to think of it, it seems like the last time we had a serious dumping up here was February, 2005. That's a looooong time.

 

[SnowRider]

I've been pretty certain, and have said so many times, that around the 20-22nd of this month we would see winter return and NE would get some real snow between then and the 27th. Furthermore I was pretty confident that this would mark a long term return to NORMAL temps.
Well up to this am that is. The pattern is the pattern and it's not changing. Warm will be the rule and normal will be cold and it will be short lived. Sorry. Feb. is the only winter month I actually believe in right now. Analog years, teleconnection models, the pacific jet forecast, the Atlantic ocean temperatures, the temps in Canada- all of them just don't give me any confidence anymore.
Best hope is for 10-12 days of ok weather starting middle of this week and then some light natural snow till the 1st. After that welcome back mild air frustration till feb.
(best news however could be that this is a year where spring really doesn't arrive until late april)

Are you saying that we wont get any good skiing or good dumps or even snomaking temps untill february?! What has winter become...

 

[goldsbar]

It already is hurting. Speaking as an innkeeper near MRG and Sugarbush, our reservations are way down for Christmas. Almost everyone who had a reservation this last weekend cancelled, and next weekend is looking dead. It can all turn around in a hurry with one big storm and a bit of cold weather, but nothing like that is on the horizon.

Come to think of it, it seems like the last time we had a serious dumping up here was February, 2005. That's a looooong time.

Sorry to tell you this, but I was going to make reservations in the area on MLK weekend but there's no way I'm doing that now. I'd need to see at least two 1' dumps with consistant cold weather and without rain in between before I make that drive from NJ. Not too happy about it as I had Grandma all lined up for babysitting.

 

[Greg]

Sorry to tell you this, but I was going to make reservations in the area on MLK weekend but there's no way I'm doing that now. I'd need to see at least two 1' dumps with consistant cold weather and without rain in between before I make that drive from NJ. Not too happy about it as I had Grandma all lined up for babysitting.

MLK weekend is a pretty long ways off...

 

[ctenidae]

MLK weekend is a pretty long ways off...

Ever the optimist. I hope you're right (I know, MLK weekend is a long ways off- you're ceretainly right there. I hope your optimism is right!)

 

[ajl50]

Are you saying that we wont get any good skiing or good dumps or even snomaking temps untill february?! What has winter become...

Of course there is a chance for snow storms before then. This is winter and there is air cold enought for snow that can line up with one of these storms and give us all some snow. What my point really is - don't expect patterns of sustained cold and snow showers (you know the patterns where the 'dacks, greens and whites get a eight inch storm and then 12 inches of light snow for the next week and then the whole thing is repeated) for at least the next 5 weeks.
Warm and above average with little precip of any kind will be the norm.

 

[shwilly]

Time will tell what the weather brings, but December has already been better than a wash for me personally. I've had 3 surprisingly good days sliding on manmade stuff. I've gotten the start-of-season jitters out and enjoyed hanging out with friends on the mountain and afterward. This past weekend my wife and I took our first ski road trip of the season, and we had a great time.

I have my fingers crossed for better weather, but we're already well past the "more fun than anything else I could be doing this weekend" threshold. Hopefully it will just get better from here.

 

[ski_resort_observer]

MLK weekend is a pretty long ways off...

3.5 weeks away is not that long off , remember we said that around Thanksgiving in regards to Xmas. Maybe it will be like 3 years ago, in Maine, when we had no snow until Xmas day and then it puked for 2 days.

 

[from_the_NEK]

Interesting coorelation I just made.

Sunspot cycles reach solar minimum every 11 years. 11 years ago = 1994-1995 = Horrible snow year

This year is another solar minimum
2006 - 2007

 

[from_the_NEK]

Holy crap :blink: :blink: :blink:
I just checked out 1982-1983 on http://www.uvm.edu/skivt-l/?Page=mansel.php3 and that year almost EXACTLY mirrors 1994-1995.
THIS IS NOT PROMISING for the rest of the winter :x

 

[from_the_NEK]

Comparison of all three years. I should have probably put this in the "Winter has been cancelled" thread.
Time to break out the mountain bike

 

[riverc0il]

3.5 weeks away is not that long off , remember we said that around Thanksgiving in regards to Xmas. Maybe it will be like 3 years ago, in Maine, when we had no snow until Xmas day and then it puked for 2 days.

indeed, not far off at all. and while week to week forecasts are hit or miss, i do trust general weather patterns when they are widely agreed upon, and every forecaster is definitely calling for above average temps with no likely major dumps any time soon. i think it is smart to avoid booking holiday weekend trips at this point until you get closer to your date. better yet, book a trip out west instead. check out the latest reports from alta over at FTO. if i had the money, i would be heading out there this weekend.

 

[riverc0il]

Comparison of all three years. I should have probably put this in the "Winter has been cancelled" thread.
Time to break out the mountain bike

at least april looked good one of those historical years on the graph you posted that thing that concerns me the most is catching up to average base depth. imo, base depth is one of the single most important drivers for good snow years. i would rather have natural snow trails open consistently throughout the year with a few decent pow days rather than a lot of great pow days with lots of rain, thaw, and closure of said natural snow trails due to poor base depth. while it was great skiing in the trees in october twice and then once more again in early november... i would easily trade those three great days for tree skiing from jan through april every day. without a base, we still have yet to establish even a base layer for the building phase of the season. i don't expect good tree skiing until february at this point. :blink:

 

[mattchuck2]

at least april looked good one of those historical years on the graph you posted that thing that concerns me the most is catching up to average base depth. imo, base depth is one of the single most important drivers for good snow years. i would rather have natural snow trails open consistently throughout the year with a few decent pow days rather than a lot of great pow days with lots of rain, thaw, and closure of said natural snow trails due to poor base depth. while it was great skiing in the trees in october twice and then once more again in early november... i would easily trade those three great days for tree skiing from jan through april every day. without a base, we still have yet to establish even a base layer for the building phase of the season. i don't expect good tree skiing until february at this point. :blink:

I completely agree with everything you just said.

 

[WWF-VT]

Weather not cooperating for December. Being an optimist we have to hope that the pattern changes and we have a strong Jan, Feb , March and April. My only consolation is my dislocated shoulder should be rehabilitated and l'll get the green light to ski in early January

 

[SnowRider]

at least april looked good one of those historical years on the graph you posted that thing that concerns me the most is catching up to average base depth. imo, base depth is one of the single most important drivers for good snow years. i would rather have natural snow trails open consistently throughout the year with a few decent pow days rather than a lot of great pow days with lots of rain, thaw, and closure of said natural snow trails due to poor base depth. while it was great skiing in the trees in october twice and then once more again in early november... i would easily trade those three great days for tree skiing from jan through april every day. without a base, we still have yet to establish even a base layer for the building phase of the season. i don't expect good tree skiing until february at this point.

I am in MA and go up to Sunapee. I am lucky to get 2 good weekends tree skiing there. Last year I got no tree skiing cept for Jay. I agree with you 100% but forcast for the long term still dont look promising. Hopefully January stays cold enough for snowmaking so mountans can build bases. Maybe set up a good february.

 

[Skibum_dan]

at least april looked good one of those historical years on the graph you posted that thing that concerns me the most is catching up to average base depth. imo, base depth is one of the single most important drivers for good snow years. i would rather have natural snow trails open consistently throughout the year with a few decent pow days rather than a lot of great pow days with lots of rain, thaw, and closure of said natural snow trails due to poor base depth. while it was great skiing in the trees in october twice and then once more again in early november... i would easily trade those three great days for tree skiing from jan through april every day. without a base, we still have yet to establish even a base layer for the building phase of the season. i don't expect good tree skiing until february at this point. :blink:

So sad but true.
Unless we get some insane dumps between now and then that actually stick around.

I was up at smuggs on saturday and sunday....spring skiing in december. kinda fun but a lot melted in one week.

 

[thetrailboss]

The Burke Video from Today is not pretty. http://s99.photobucket.com/albums/l300/january1680/?action=view&current=PC191767.flv