Jay Peak bombshell

[tnt1234]

Interesting!

Regarding the Alice's Table, I have always expected normal sit down restaurant times. We generally ate at The Foundry or from the Tower Bar. Always thought food was decent and prices good.

I an very curious about what will happen to Jay Peak and Burke which are two places that I grew up skiing at.

I like the little pizza place around back. In and out super fast. Seems to be oft overlooked. Beer on tap if you need it. Easy to bring pizza with you to stand on the tram line as well....

We stayed a Jay a few years ago and had a full blown dinner at Alices - was really, really nice. But this was early on in the Ponzi scheme - like their 2nd year open - so things were well staffed, and the menu/food/everything was great.

Gosh, that was a great trip...cold, but great.

I never skied the old Jay, but certainly knew what it was all about - I thought they did a nice job trying to retain a little old style edginess with the new digs...but I could see how it wouldn't feel the same to someone who really grew up there.


Was at the new Stateside lodge last year for the first time, and you know, you can kind of see the start of the scheme unraveling just in the way the two base areas are done. The bar, lounge, facilities of the stateside lodge struck me as kind of cheesy and cheaply done, where as the Tram side bars I thought were cool and funky - and again, IMO a nice homage to old school, but with all modern facilities and conveniences....

Anyway - love the mountain anyway, or maybe now, because of the quirks. If they survive this relatively unscathed, it kind of adds to the mythos, right? You can't kill Jay Peak!!!!

 

[VTKilarney]

For selfish reasons, I wish that there was some information in the article about how well Burke is doing.

They are spending money at Burke to put out a good ski product, which is a good sign.

IMHO, the lack of money spent on skiing infrastructure at Jay is going to drive down the price. New hotels are great, but there hasn't been much in the way of improvements made to the mountain itself.

But the article is certainly good news. A great snow year can't be hurting, either.

 

[VTKilarney]

EDIT: Just looked up some data, and Jay Peak's operating profit last year was over $12M.

So why were they behind on property taxes and scrounging up money from settlements to make it through the off season? This doesn't make sense to someone like me who knows next to nothing about accounting.

 

[benski]

So why were they behind on property taxes and scrounging up money from settlements to make it through the off season? This doesn't make sense to someone like me who knows next to nothing about accounting.

operating income does not include taxes and interest. I am not sure if it includes the fraud.

 

[Steve@jpr]

Dan (D'Ambrosia) is a good guy and a good reporter but you're right here BG-there were far too many numbers being tossed around in that interview that weren't properly contextualized. Suffice to say, and I'm sure you understand, I can't get into specific ebitda/noi expectations here but now that the EB5 infrastructure has been cleared away, it's obviopusly a hell of a lot easier to get a clear read on the financials and what the appropriate path to profitability (and increased profitability) could/should be. I can say that in the 15 year's I've been associated with JP, we're heading into the last 9 weeks of the fiscal in the best financial shape we've ever been in. If you had told me this'd be the case back on April 14th, it would have been a tough swallow. Still only in about the 5th inning here and the bottom could disapear for sure, but we're all hopeful.

I can say that most of the labor related cost cuts this year centered on redundant mid level mgmt and that EB5 infrastructure (which was far from insignificant as you can prob guess). Any lightnesss on the front line certainly isn't from a lack of trying to hustle it together-and at across the board increased starting wages-just a difficult labor market and we're doing what we can to get where we need to be. To your point on the increased turnaround time in Alice's-we shortened the menu across 3 Saturdays this year-twice because lack of kitchen staff forced us to limit offerings during a weekend where staff just couldn't get to work because of poorly timed (I guess that's what you'd call it) storms. Hate to do this because you're right, it spoils what is pretty widely known as a good experience, but it was the only way we could assure wait times wouldn't be worse. I really hope we don't have to do that again, and we're going to work hard to not have to.

steve



My guess is what we have here is a reporter who doesn't understand the difference between the word, "profit", and the word, "revenue", which I see all the time when the article isn't from a dedicated financial source (i.e. Wall Street Journal, Barrons, IBD, etc...). A 10x multiple is kind of crazy too, FWIW.


EDIT: Just looked up some data, and Jay Peak's operating profit last year was over $12M, so I guess they really do mean $8M in profit this year. No idea how that's possible even without considering the recent costs they've had. It's pretty obvious Jay Peak has aggressively cut costs this year though. For instance, on a recent trip I ate at Alice's Table, and the menu was probably 1/3 the size of the past. I asked the waiter, "why the change" and he told me it's because they're so understaffed the smaller menu makes things run quicker. Even so, my lunch took an HOUR & FIFTEEN minutes out of my ski day because the wait staff was clearly taxed to the max. Unacceptable. Not the waitier's fault, but lets just say I wont be eating at Alice's Table again, which is sad because the food's good and I like the place. [/QUOTE]

 

[Steve@jpr]

I'm not necessarily in a position to speak for MG, but his responsibility, ultimately and only, is to protect the assets. He needs to manage cash outflows to cover things like tram upgrades, tax payments, vendor payments and, ultimately, contractor payments. Everything will ultimately happen, but the cadence of it can't put the asset at risk (ie, using cashflow to pay taxes, vendors/contractors and repairs in a such a way that may risk the asset should, say, weather put us in a bad position. I think as it becomes clearer the season will be a win, you'll start to see payments and repayments start to accelerate. And as far as knowing next to nothing about accounting, I check that column as well.

steve

So why were they behind on property taxes and scrounging up money from settlements to make it through the off season? This doesn't make sense to someone like me who knows next to nothing about accounting.

 

[from_the_NEK]

Thanks Steve. At least the weather is cooperating this year!

Jay Peak Out of the Storm by Tim_NEK, on Flickr

 

[KustyTheKlown]

More importantly, how are the trees right now?

Really love that you make candid posts here, keep up the good work, we are all pulling for jay

 

[Steve@jpr]

Miso Hungry has been a big hit. I'm working with a few more vendors for possible Stateside additions next yr.

We stopped and grabbed the Ramen noodles outside for a quick breather and some sustenance. Quick and delicious.

 

[Steve@jpr]

They're ok--were better before Wednesday's shit blip. But the next 7 days looks really nice and the snowpack is nuts right now. I was at Stowe today and the place is skiing fantastic (and fantastically cold)

More importantly, how are the trees right now?

Really love that you make candid posts here, keep up the good work, we are all pulling for jay

 

[from_the_NEK]

I was at Stowe today...

Trying to snake the Vail execs away from Stowe and into buying Jay ehhh? :lol:;-)

 

[BenedictGomez]

lol lunch. you're doing it wrong.

Honestly, outside of holiday weekends, I find the "ski during lunch" thing to be a wives tale. Yes, the lines are admittedly shorter, but not dramatically so to make much of a difference. My 2¢. Holiday weekends, yes, that strategy does pay off.

To your point on the increased turnaround time in Alice's-we shortened the menu across 3 Saturdays this year-twice because lack of kitchen staff forced us to limit offerings during a weekend where staff just couldn't get to work because of poorly timed (I guess that's what you'd call it) storms.

Oh, so it's not an every weekend thing that was started? That's good to hear if so, I'll give it another try next week then. I've eaten there since it opened and enjoy the place very much.

operating income does not include taxes and interest. I am not sure if it includes the fraud.

I went back again and looked after VTKilarney's comment, because he's right, that figure didn't make sense really and surprised me. Turns out it was sited by Quirors! lol. So..... no reason to believe it's true. Below is more accurate:

Jay’s pretax profits were $2.6 million for FY 2014, $3 million for fiscal year 2015, and through February 2016 appeared to be on track for $1.8 million for FY 2016, Goldberg said.

So yeah, I'd have to go back to by original theory that $8M is completely unrealistic unless they increase alcohol sales by 28,483%.

 

[KustyTheKlown]

Lunch is a waste of time and money. Time that should be spent skiing. And you're crazy if you don't think the hill is way quieter from 1130-130

Eat a big hearty breakfast. Fill pockets with granola/cheese/fruit/jerky, carry a drink on you, feast like a king at 330, get dinner later.

 

[snoseek]

Lunch is a waste of time and money. Time that should be spent skiing. And you're crazy if you don't think the hill is way quieter from 1130-130

Eat a big hearty breakfast. Fill pockets with granola/cheese/fruit/jerky, carry a drink on you, feast like a king at 330, get dinner later.

While your strategy is ideal, I always find myself wanting a midday rest and a pint or two. I usually don't buy food but if I do its almost always at the bar.

 

[Jcb890]

I'd just like to take a minute to thank Steve@jpr for posting on here and being so candid.

You guys have gotten flak all season (myself included) and you have been here all season, addressing questions and seemingly providing honest answers. While Jay Peak will continue to get called out on potential issues (again, myself included), we really do appreciate you taking the time to post on here and at least fill us in somewhat.

As far as I'm concerned personally, if I didn't like Jay Peak so much, I wouldn't bother voicing concerns.

 

[Edd]

While your strategy is ideal, I always find myself wanting a midday rest and a pint or two. I usually don't buy food but if I do its almost always at the bar.

Ditto

 

[Steve@jpr]

I def understand and thanks. I wouldn't be coming out here and bothering if I didn't think that it was worth it and that you deserved straight answers to sincere questions.

I'd just like to take a minute to thank Steve@jpr for posting on here and being so candid.

You guys have gotten flak all season (myself included) and you have been here all season, addressing questions and seemingly providing honest answers. While Jay Peak will continue to get called out on potential issues (again, myself included), we really do appreciate you taking the time to post on here and at least fill us in somewhat.

As far as I'm concerned personally, if I didn't like Jay Peak so much, I wouldn't bother voicing concerns.

 

[yeggous]

Lunch is a waste of time and money. Time that should be spent skiing. And you're crazy if you don't think the hill is way quieter from 1130-130

Eat a big hearty breakfast. Fill pockets with granola/cheese/fruit/jerky, carry a drink on you, feast like a king at 330, get dinner later.

Spoken like a man who does not ski with a wife.


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[deadheadskier]

Spoken like a man who does not ski with a wife.


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That, or skis at very busy areas. As you know, I've got zero issues taking an hour mid day at Wildcat. Still get 30-40k vertical in or more easily.

To me, it's not the total hours you spend trying to ski, it's actual time on snow. At Cat I can accomplish more in 4-5 hours than a full day at Stowe.

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[albert a ripper]

And that is why I also love wildcat. When the express is at full speed, over 2k vertical in under 7 minutes. I've never been as spent at the end of the day (on the east coast) as I have been at wildcat. To me there's nothing more frustrating than taking a lift to a transverse to a lift to get a 1400ft vertical drop. My wife gets cold, and that means I'm not having fun.