KILLINGTON/PICO: AZ Challenge 2007 Response/Feedback Thread

[Greg]

No, but they haven't even stopped the decline, really. Overall, it's been pushed into a nosedive. Less of pretty much everything combined with higher prices. Sure there are some positive changes and fixed couple things but overall they are going to have less of a skiing product than ASC....nothing to get excited about. Will they turn a profit? A bigger profit? That remains to be seen.

If you want an example of how to turn a resort around, look to Mt. Snow or SR or Magic.

I know where you're coming from HS. I love the "create a buzz"/good PR approach as much as anybody. Nothing gets you pumped for ski season more and it's fun to talk about. The Peak/Boyne and Powdr approaches are about as a complete 180 from each other as you can get. It will be interesting to see the results of each approach. At the end of the day, probably both could be successfully; it's just going to take a lot longer to see the results at Killington. This is fun to watch for sure.

 

[eastcoastpowderhound]

I know where you're coming from HS. I love the "create a buzz"/good PR approach as much as anybody. Nothing gets you pumped for ski season more and it's fun to talk about. The Peak/Boyne and Powdr approaches are about as a complete 180 from each other as you can get. It will be interesting to see the results of each approach. At the end of the day, probably both could be successfully; it's just going to take a lot longer to see the results at Killington. This is fun to watch for sure.

SPLand/Powdr hasn't inherited anything worse than what Peaks, Boyne, and Intrawest have walked into...all of the properties are in serious need of repair...demolition even. All of these new owners knew what they were walking into and had plenty of opportunity to plan their approach. Only one new owner has come in with a restrictive operations policy...the rest are willing to spend some money in order to make more...invest in their new assests and invest in the future. C'mon, Peaks spent more money at Mount Snow than has been spent at Killington...add in what they spent at AT and you've got close to 10M in new investment right out of the gate. You can't feel any more sorry for SP/Powdr than you should for Boyne, Peaks, or Intrawest. They've all been dealt similar hands...they're just playing them differently.

 

[trtaylor]

I know where you're coming from HS. I love the "create a buzz"/good PR approach as much as anybody. Nothing gets you pumped for ski season more and it's fun to talk about. The Peak/Boyne and Powdr approaches are about as a complete 180 from each other as you can get. It will be interesting to see the results of each approach. At the end of the day, probably both could be successfully; it's just going to take a lot longer to see the results at Killington. This is fun to watch for sure.

I agree 100%. Will also be a fun business case study for someone 5 years or so out.

Should make for an active AZ forum, too!

 

[nycskier]

C'mon, Peaks spent more money at Mount Snow than has been spent at Killington...add in what they spent at AT and you've got close to 10M in new investment right out of the gate.

Not only did they spend more money improving Mount Snow than Powdr did at Killington, they also kept their season pass price in a similar range to last year's ASC A41 pass and are still participating in the ski council discount program.

 

[Newpylong]

First it was 3 million at Killington, then 3.3, now 5.3, but no one seems to know what they did besides paint a few lifts... 2 million of that was put into the Grand Summit and was slated to be done regardless of who was running the mountain...

So yeah, they haven't done anything in comparison...

I've gotten every press release in the mail from Mount Snow, I didn't see anything about such a touted new clock. If its true, it certainly isn't being marketed, as it shouldn't be.

I just don't understand.

I just read a post about Mt. Snow's $6 million summer and how it includes a new clock. That's important?

Killington spends $5.3 million and all they get is crap about it. Just maintenance they say. Isn't that an improvement over last year?

And the Killington regulars seem more concerned with trashing their mountain than supporting it. If I were Killington management I would continue to do exactly what they have been doing since the end of last season. Until every last one of those regulars left and went to ski elsewhere.

Because it seems their current clientele has not an iota of loyalty. All you want to do is bash the new owners. It's pitiful.

 

[Greg]

I've gotten every press release in the mail from Mount Snow, I didn't see anything about such a touted new clock. If its true, it certainly isn't being marketed, as it shouldn't be.

http://news.alpinezone.com/18984/

 

[Newpylong]

Well damn, guess I am wrong. At least we won't miss any AZ meetings? lol.

At least it wasn't the extend of their off-seasons improvements, just the icing on the cake, hah.

 

[Tin Woodsman]

My position is simplistic (and very annoying to some folks)...POWDR inherited a mess that has been fermenting for years.

Most definitely. There can be no argument with this.

Folks expected them to come in and throw millions into fixing everything and making K what it was a decade ago. And I think that was a very unrealistic expectation.

This is where you, and others, go wrong. Except for a few lone voices in the wind, no one is arguing that they should come in and start throwing money around left and right ala ASC with Sugarbush. Dropping something like $10-15MM (remember, this is still only half of the $28MM ASC dropped into SB, which generated between 1/2 and 1/2 of K-Mart's skier visits) in the first year would be a silly and unrealistic expectation.

I BEG you, please stop advancing the argument that this is the ONLY or most likely alternative to the current non-program. It's a useless strawman. What POWDR has done, first of all, is spend $3.3MM on what amounts almost entirely to maintenance projects. It seems clear that they take quite a liberal view on what constitutes capital and what constitutes expense dollars. The $5.3MM figure you fancy mentioning includes $2MM of OWNER FUNDED improvements at the Grand Summit. It should not and cannot be counted.

Again, they have made no indications that they have diagnosed the problems with the on-mountain experience and have articulated no plans to resolve those issues. The $3.3MM they spent is a tiny increase for a hill the size of K-Mart and is less than what Peaks spent at Mt. Snow, which is far, far smaller, in their first year of ownership.

People say that those complaining simply are whiners who want more for less. How about complaining about getting a lot less for a lot more. Don't piss on my face and tel me its raining - which is essentially what you are trying to do. If the problems with this particular patient have been building for 5-10 years, then POWDR has violated the hippocratic oath in trying to heal it - do no harm. They are getting closer to killing the patient on the table than fixing what ails it. And given the hornets nest they've scared up in town with their ill-considered moves and non-moves, it doesn't appear as though Dr. Real Estate is going to be able to come in and bail them out any time soon.

The avg skier might not know right now about the off-season changes many are griping about. But I'd argue that's because the avg skier hasn't turned his or her mind towards planning their winter vacations yet. Wait until they do and discover the price increases for lift tickets and especially kids programs along with the limited operating schedule midweek. From personal experience, a few friends of mine who live in NYC decided in June/July to make the jump up from a share house at Stratton to K-Mart. When e-mailing back and forth a week ago, they were pretty depressed with all the changes, especially the elimination of the Ski Council voucher program. They immediately inquired how much the vouchers were for Sugarbush and if it was too late to geMartt in on them. Bottom line is that the are going to spend a lot fewer dollars and days at K-Mart than planned or what they actually spent at Stratton last year. They will also be looking elsewhere for a house next year.

Oh, I forgot. Killington doesn't want their kind. It's not like young professionals in their 20s and 30s who currently can't afford a slopeside condo ever get older and have a family and evolve into said demographic. What silly thinking on my part.

 

[Greg]

Most definitely. There can be no argument with this.


This is where you, and others, go wrong. Except for a few lone voices in the wind, no one is arguing that they should come in and start throwing money around left and right ala ASC with Sugarbush. Dropping something like $10-15MM (remember, this is still only half of the $28MM ASC dropped into SB, which generated between 1/2 and 1/2 of K-Mart's skier visits) in the first year would be a silly and unrealistic expectation.

I BEG you, please stop advancing the argument that this is the ONLY or most likely alternative to the current non-program. It's a useless strawman. What POWDR has done, first of all, is spend $3.3MM on what amounts almost entirely to maintenance projects. It seems clear that they take quite a liberal view on what constitutes capital and what constitutes expense dollars. The $5.3MM figure you fancy mentioning includes $2MM of OWNER FUNDED improvements at the Grand Summit. It should not and cannot be counted.

Again, they have made no indications that they have diagnosed the problems with the on-mountain experience and have articulated no plans to resolve those issues. The $3.3MM they spent is a tiny increase for a hill the size of K-Mart and is less than what Peaks spent at Mt. Snow, which is far, far smaller, in their first year of ownership.

People say that those complaining simply are whiners who want more for less. How about complaining about getting a lot less for a lot more. Don't piss on my face and tel me its raining - which is essentially what you are trying to do. If the problems with this particular patient have been building for 5-10 years, then POWDR has violated the hippocratic oath in trying to heal it - do no harm. They are getting closer to killing the patient on the table than fixing what ails it. And given the hornets nest they've scared up in town with their ill-considered moves and non-moves, it doesn't appear as though Dr. Real Estate is going to be able to come in and bail them out any time soon.

The avg skier might not know right now about the off-season changes many are griping about. But I'd argue that's because the avg skier hasn't turned his or her mind towards planning their winter vacations yet. Wait until they do and discover the price increases for lift tickets and especially kids programs along with the limited operating schedule midweek. From personal experience, a few friends of mine who live in NYC decided in June/July to make the jump up from a share house at Stratton to K-Mart. When e-mailing back and forth a week ago, they were pretty depressed with all the changes, especially the elimination of the Ski Council voucher program. They immediately inquired how much the vouchers were for Sugarbush and if it was too late to geMartt in on them. Bottom line is that the are going to spend a lot fewer dollars and days at K-Mart than planned or what they actually spent at Stratton last year. They will also be looking elsewhere for a house next year.

Oh, I forgot. Killington doesn't want their kind. It's not like young professionals in their 20s and 30s who currently can't afford a slopeside condo ever get older and have a family and evolve into said demographic. What silly thinking on my part.

You truly have mastered the art of condescension. :roll: Jim inherently deserves a bit more respect than you've shown here. What exactly is your industry experience again, Tin? You seem to have all the answers and are obviously much smarter than the guys at Powdr. What nobody ever mentions is the fact that Powdr just paid $83.5MM for the joint. That's a full $10MM more than Peak Resorts paid for the Attitash/Snow combo. That's a pretty big initial investment.

Again, they have made no indications that they have diagnosed the problems with the on-mountain experience and have articulated no plans to resolve those issues.

And exactly how are they supposed to do this without even running the place through a full season? Perhaps they just want to take a more conservative approach to fully evaluate the operation first.

 

[JimG.]

You truly have mastered the art of condescension. :roll: Jim inherently deserves a bit more respect than you've shown here. What exactly is your industry experience again, Tin? You seem to have all the answers and are obviously much smarter than the guys at Powdr. What nobody ever mentions is the fact that Powdr just paid $83.5MM for the joint. That's a full $10MM more than Peak Resorts paid for the Attitash/Snow combo. That's a pretty big initial investment.



And exactly how are they supposed to do this without even running the place through a full season? Perhaps they just want to take a more conservative approach to fully evaluate the operation first.

Thanks Greg...I'm not going to get into it with the Tin Man.

We think differently.

Unlike him, I'm not going to pretend to have any control or say over what POWDR does. They put up the money to buy the place. Tinny and me are nothing more than armchair quarterbacks when it comes to what they do.

So I have no grandiose ideas about what they will or should do. I just want to try to understand their plan. They do have one whether Tinny wants to admit it or not. Apparently what he sees does not suit him. So he shouldn't (if he ever does) ski there. Case closed.

I feel differently. I'll ski there more this year to check out what if anything good happens. That is all.

I really don't need anyone's respect or approval...I'm comfortable with my thought processes. If Tinny thinks I'm simple, so be it. I've always lived by the KISS principle and find I often run rings around those who see the need to complicate matters.

But I do like the comment about pissing on his head and telling him it's raining...alot of my friends at IBM use that phrase.

Guess all you want...nothing is known until the snow flies.

 

[millerm277]

You truly have mastered the art of condescension. :roll: Jim inherently deserves a bit more respect than you've shown here. What exactly is your industry experience again, Tin? You seem to have all the answers and are obviously much smarter than the guys at Powdr. What nobody ever mentions is the fact that Powdr just paid $83.5MM for the joint. That's a full $10MM more than Peak Resorts paid for the Attitash/Snow combo. That's a pretty big initial investment.

Killington alone has more skiable acreage, lifts, skier visits by a sizeable amount over both of those combined, when you add Pico, it's a low price, especially considering the assets Killington has:

Virtually unlimited snowmaking water.
An expansion already planned, partially permitted, and with land leased for the expansion.
Large areas that real estate can be built on with minimal problems, if they were to not piss off the town as they have.

And, I would bet that Killington was much, much more profitable than those two combined. (I don't know Mt. Snow's numbers, but Attitash was losing money).

And exactly how are they supposed to do this without even running the place through a full season? Perhaps they just want to take a more conservative approach to fully evaluate the operation first.

They say that they need a season to learn the area before they do anything, and then they've gone out and made huge cuts in season length and changed all sorts of other things (prices, operating schedules, etc).

Unlike him, I'm not going to pretend to have any control or say over what POWDR does. They put up the money to buy the place. Tinny and me are nothing more than armchair quarterbacks when it comes to what they do.

We do have a bit of control over what they do. That bit of control is probably the only reason why certain things have been changed/reversed. (Skyeship operating schedule is the first example). It's unlikely that our bitching would do something like get them to reverse course, but so far it has managed to get a few things changed, and has been the only reason some things have been brought to light (for better or worse).

They do have one whether Tinny wants to admit it or not. Apparently what he sees does not suit him. So he shouldn't (if he ever does) ski there. Case closed.

I agree, they do have a plan, but more importantly than whether we like it or not, that plan (at least in my opinion), does not seem to mesh with how eastern resorts work. Is it possible that their plan will work out, and in a few years all will be great and everyone will be happy? Yes. However, to me at least, it seems more likely that it will worsen Killington's downward spiral, and in a few years when they run away, we'll be left with a ski area in much worse condition (financially and mechanically compared to it's competitors) than it is now.

Guess all you want...nothing is known until the snow flies.

Sure it is:

They've stated that the snowmaking budget is the same as it's been the last few years of ASC disaster.
We know that prices are higher, and that pico and skyeship stage I aren't operating Tuesday and Wednesday.
We know that they are not expecting to open before Nov 16th, or close after April 13th/

Will all be forgotten if we get 300 inches of snow, and it stays cold the entire time? Maybe.

I think they may have hurt a few too many people at this point for a good season to wash everything away.

 

[Tin Woodsman]

You truly have mastered the art of condescension. :roll: Jim inherently deserves a bit more respect than you've shown here. What exactly is your industry experience again, Tin? You seem to have all the answers and are obviously much smarter than the guys at Powdr. What nobody ever mentions is the fact that Powdr just paid $83.5MM for the joint. That's a full $10MM more than Peak Resorts paid for the Attitash/Snow combo. That's a pretty big initial investment.

Condescension was neither my intention nor, even on a second reading, the result. My main point was to expose the strawman case that Jim and others have espoused with respect to investment by POWDR being all or nothing. Either they can continue with the do-nothing approach this year or the only other choice is to spend massive amounts of money. That is nonsense. There are many shades of gray. Even if they want to observe tings for a year before making major changes (interesting how such time wasn't required on the pricing, employee, base lodge, and lift ops front), there are some targeted, noticeable improvements they could have either made this year or promised to do. For example, replacing the Sky Peak Quad with a detatch is a no brainer. Same capacity, but a shortened ride for this critical link between Bear Mtn. and the Basin. Replacing the current three-headed monster on Snowshed with a 6-pack is a similar no-brainer, and one that minimizes needed infrastructure (removing two useless lifts). You don't need to do both this summer, but they are both obvious and should be talked about to generate some excitement.

As for the $83MM they spent - no, I don't give them credit. Just because you may be able to find some wahoo to loan you money to buy something doesn't mean you get credit for doing so. There are about a million foreclosed former homeowners these days who will help underline that. More to the point for a business, the capital they thought they would need to invest in K should have been factored into their purchase price. If they paid too much, the customers and other stakeholders in K shouldn't have to pay for their irresponsibility. Would you pay $300K for a house whose closest comp is worth $300K if the one you buy needs $200K of repairs? I would hope not. That would be a pretty stupid investment.

Are these guys really that stupid? I highly doubt it. But don't come and cry poor because of the purchase price. And don't try to front like you need time to evaluate possible improvements when not only have they made a number of drastic changes in their operational and marketing footprint, it is also patently obvious that the village is their #1 priority anyway.

 

[tcharron]

I just don't understand.

I just read a post about Mt. Snow's $6 million summer and how it includes a new clock. That's important?

Killington spends $5.3 million and all they get is crap about it. Just maintenance they say. Isn't that an improvement over last year?

Killington:
Vertical Drop: 3,050 feet
Trail Acreage: 1215 skiable acres
Trail Count: 200

Mt Snow:
Vertical Drop: 1,700 feet
Trail Acreage: 590 skiable acres
Trail Count: 106

One could argue that it would take 12 million to have the same kind of wow figure.

Not taking sides, just point it out.

 

[JimG.]

Condescension was neither my intention nor, even on a second reading, the result. My main point was to expose the strawman case that Jim and others have espoused with respect to investment by POWDR being all or nothing.

This is exactly why I gave up on this topic...Tinny, you need to go back and read all my posts, then tell me where I espoused an all or nothing investment scenario. I never did. I have from the beginning said only:

1) That Killington regulars should be patient and loyal to the degree they give the new owners a chance.

2) That I understand why POWDR wants to get some actual skiing time under their belts before planning major changes/upgrades.

3) That I will ski there this year to see what happens.

I never said they shouldn't invest anything, or, as a corollary, that they should bet the house.

Let's just go to the end game...R.I.P. Killington, may it rest in peace.

You should be a politician...good at putting your words in other people's mouths.