Looks like we finally have some hope

[billski]

I'd like to say we do a little more than "guess".
We'll never win.

But you know, bash it all you want--you know you'll be looking to the forecasters for the next storm.

You're right, my apologies. I just get a bit frustrated and needed a whipping boy. I learned long ago not to take reports too seriously. While your job may be to preserve and protect life with due warning, I'm just the opposite; I'm looking for fun. My frustration is that people amplify the forecast and the next thing you know, they don't want to travel in 2" of new fallen.

I suppose you are right that the conduits of information magnify what you produce. You have every right to take offense, and for that my apologies. I get more out of listening to Matt Noyes 10 minute analysis on his site than I do out his 90-second forecast on NECN. You can't paint an accurate picture in 90 seconds, but that is what everyone wants.

 

[WinnChill]

The timing on this storm must have been a little off...I can't imagine school superintendents in southern NH calling off school unless they had reason to believe that the snow was going to arrive during the school day.

That said, methinks people are getting a bit too demanding about snow forecasts...if the predictions are 2" or 2 hours off then they are sooo bad. :roll:

That's very true Hammer. In fact, I emailed my son's teacher on Monday emphasizing that the heavy snow would arrive in the PM but was too close to call between an early release or snow day (of course teachers don't have any say in the matter but they were in a meeting trying to plan). The Supers had to err on the side of caution and make the call BEFORE the snow had even started. Could they have gotten half a day in? In hindsight, yes. Was it worth risking buses skidding off the road as the snow hit midday as we thought? You make the call.

We try to get it as perfect as possible but the science just isn't there yet. It's a bitter pill to swallow when we ARE able to see major storms coming DAYS in advance, give all the warnings possible, we see the clouds, we see the wind, we see the snow...and then everyone gives you the finger because they missed out on a few inches. Do I get pissed? You bet!

 

[Euler]

... I get more out of listening to Matt Noyes 10 minute analysis on his site than I do out his 90-second forecast on NECN. You can't paint an accurate picture in 90 seconds, but that is what everyone wants.

In a similar vein, I always read the NWS/NOAA DISCUSSION section which is always full of words like "uncertainty, probability, likely, etc." It was through reading a weather discussion here on AZ last year or the year before that I really learned that a weather forecast is not a prediction of what WILL happen, but rather what is more or less LIKELY to happen.

It's hard to keep that in mind when you're hoping for snow to ski on, though.

 

[WinnChill]

You're right, my apologies. I just get a bit frustrated and needed a whipping boy. I learned long ago not to take reports too seriously. While your job may be to preserve and protect life with due warning, I'm just the opposite; I'm looking for fun. My frustration is that people amplify the forecast and the next thing you know, they don't want to travel in 2" of new fallen.

I suppose you are right that the conduits of information magnify what you produce. You have every right to take offense, and for that my apologies. I get more out of listening to Matt Noyes 10 minute analysis on his site than I do out his 90-second forecast on NECN. You can't paint an accurate picture in 90 seconds, but that is what everyone wants.

I appreciate that Bill. I was going to edit my reply saying it was nothing personal to you or anyone on here--I didn't mean to come off harsh to you...everyone here has been real cool. :beer: It's just I've been attacked (not you) more in the past month than I have in the past couple of years. It's been more public and personal lately from strangers AND friends (via Facebook, etc) that I feel I need to set things straight. Just yesterday, a visitor stopped by yesterday morning and the first thing out of her mouth was bashing forecasters--BEFORE she knew I was one. IN MY OWN HOUSE! :angry:

Like you said Bill, we're looking for fun...and I'll keep trying to forecast that fun. That's probably why I've been crabby like everyone else...we need SNOW and SKIING!!!!

Ok, off my soapbox.

Cheers everyone!

 

[kingdom-tele]

I wouldn't lose any sleep over it Winn

Its just SAD to see the decline of civilization unfolding before us, people would rather read a forecast then look outside, we need verification for everything these days instead of just going out because you can- lemmings

personally I think your job is the best, you could be way off and there is nothing you or anyone can do about it, people getting mad at the weather and at the weatherman makes about as much sense as being mad your going to die - maybe people need to spend more time enjoying their days!

 

[WinnChill]

I wouldn't lose any sleep over it Winn

Its just SAD to see the decline of civilization unfolding before us, people would rather read a forecast then look outside, we need verification for everything these days instead of just going out because you can- lemmings

personally I think your job is the best, you could be way off and there is nothing you or anyone can do about it, people getting mad at the weather and at the weatherman makes about as much sense as being mad your going to die - maybe people need to spend more time enjoying their days!

Thanks Kingdom. In the same vain though, perhaps we can do better conveying our message to the public. Seeing that there is a disconnect somewhere, is there something we can do better? The obvious is just getting the forecast precise...but can we be more clear about uncertainties/variables? Can we educate the public more? Can we notify the public better when forecasts aren't working out? Is it an exercise in futility? Perhaps.

 

[kingdom-tele]

I thinks its admirable to be forecasting to protect people and help them prepare for conditions, but it is NEW ENGLAND, unless your coming out of a coma, or got dropped from space you should probably have a pretty good idea that its winter, which means anything can happen and you should be prepared

you can't fix stupid in my opinion - and theres a lot of people who can't be fixed

When people start relying on weather forecasts to make decisions - and put aside common sense - what can anyone do?

 

[billski]

Thanks Kingdom. In the same vain though, perhaps we can do better conveying our message to the public. Seeing that there is a disconnect somewhere, is there something we can do better? The obvious is just getting the forecast precise...but can we be more clear about uncertainties/variables? Can we educate the public more? Can we notify the public better when forecasts aren't working out? Is it an exercise in futility? Perhaps.

I think the ANALYSIS part of your job is far more valuable than the FORECAST. Listening/reading an analysis provides a lot more insight into what is likely to happen than a once sentence quick-cast.

I have gotten to the point that as soon as I see the word "snow" in the forecast, I immediately go to the the probability. I then look at the trend - ramping up, down, and the probability trend - those hourly charts on NWS with probabilities are more useful to me than words. I then contrast it against other areas.

The NWS snow probs map is vastly more useful than yesterday's "4 to 8 inches". Everybody thinks they may get 8 inches when they hear that. When I see it on the map, and I'm on the 4" fringe, I know it's highly unlikely I'll be seeing 8.

So, you ask what you can do. You can make a one or two-paragraph analysis that is readable. I find there is a HUGE INFORMATION GAP between the one-liners and the full analysis. One liners are too simplistic. The Forecast discussion/analysis are so full of acronyms, abbreviations and other meteorological gunk that they are IMPOSSIBLE for most people to comprehend. I have had to learn about the NAM and GYZ and all meso-this and meso-that out of necessity. Most people won't . I good picture would go a long way in putting things into context. You've got to do something to keep people from jumping to invalid conclusions.

Remember, customer satisfaction is all about setting expectations properly. It's not about adjusting the forecast as the event unfolds. If you have set them up to expect some uncertainty by making it understandable as to why, you will, for sure have far fewer complaints. I know forecasters try to do this and fail, but you've got to find a way to explain it better. I know, people want definitive facts. Good managers learn how to deal with incomplete information. The rest of us should too. Resist the demand to over-simplify. Easier said than done when people have a 45 second attention span.


Keep up the good work. I review snowforecast.com every day as part of my assessment.

 

[WinnChill]

As usual Bill, you provide great input and and info. At Snowforecast.com, we do try in our discussions as best we can to bridge the gap from technical to laymans terms. We try for a blend because, like you and perhaps many others, I can't stand the one or two word forecasts. It's tough to strike a balance because I have had feedback that we were too wordy or too technical. We're always open to feedback so perhaps we can keep improving. Like you said, the NWS does a FANTASTIC job on their forecasts and for those more weather saavy some great insight into the nuts and bolts of forecasting. Unfortunately, even with all the improvements to their website, I question whether the public uses them all that much and go to the more generic brand name sites.

I used to do radio weather and I absolutely refused to do the generic "Partly Cloudy, high of whatever"....completely useless! If time allowed, I tried to narrow down whether those clouds were fair weather clouds or a precursor to a storm--it's a big difference. ***ADD--My biggest frustration about that job was that part of crew were strictly "broadcasters" and NOT mets. We had to tell them EXACTLY what to say...and many absolutely refused to ellaborate beyond "partly cloudy"...some more experienced folks could explain a bit more but many did not and read the forecast verbatim....essentially useless and a waste of airtime.***

The graphics you suggested has been on the dream sheet for a while and we hope to incorporate it soon. We still have a skeleton crew so the time needed for graphics at this point is extremely limited. Things are looking better for that coming soon though.

When storm time comes, we try to update more frequently--like yesterday morning when we saw the trend slowing and shifting, I threw in that low end probability. But those updates can be useless if people don't check back after first viewing earlier. That's where Facebook comes in handy (perhaps Twitter sometime) and we're working on an Iphone App for alerts. We're tryin!

 

[Greg]

Picked up about 9" at my house. Sundown got about 6".

 

[billski]

The graphics you suggested has been on the dream sheet for a while and we hope to incorporate it soon. We still have a skeleton crew so the time needed for graphics at this point is extremely limited. Things are looking better for that coming soon though.

I know you are trying. Can you steal from NWS? They actually have a very very valuable set of maps that are dynamically updated (but only during storm periods). The only problem is that Albany isn't on board with the program!

I put links to them all on a page here:
http://www.iabsi.com/public/ski/total_snowfall_forecast.html

NY has a good one for LI and CT, but I seem to have dropped the link. Anyways, the details are not important, it's the concept.

 

[WinnChill]

Nice! Yeah, I like those. We're working with a new developer right now and should have some new items up soon. I'm going to foward the graphics suggestions and see what he can come up with. My graphics editing hasn't gone past Paint so we'll see how manageable he can make it.

Cheers!

 

[billski]

Nice! Yeah, I like those. We're working with a new developer right now and should have some new items up soon. I'm going to foward the graphics suggestions and see what he can come up with. My graphics editing hasn't gone past Paint so we'll see how manageable he can make it.

Cheers!

While you're thinking, here's another idea, courtesy of NWS:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

Not nearly as pretty, but very complete. Tells a very quick story. updated every 4 hours.

 

[billski]

Nice! Yeah, I like those. We're working with a new developer right now and should have some new items up soon. I'm going to foward the graphics suggestions and see what he can come up with. My graphics editing hasn't gone past Paint so we'll see how manageable he can make it.

Cheers!

Hey, while I've got you, what's the beta on this northeastern "storm" for early next week? Kinda early for crazy talk, isn't it?

 

[WinnChill]

Hey, while I've got you, what's the beta on this northeastern "storm" for early next week? Kinda early for crazy talk, isn't it?

Definately early, but long range models are suggesting a deep trough to move in from the west then. It could certainly tap into some good Gulf moisture and downstream blocking could help this thing slow up. At the rate this season has gone, we pretty gun shy--it certainly bears watching! I'll keep you posted!

 

[WJenness]

Definately early, but long range models are suggesting a deep trough to move in from the west then. It could certainly tap into some good Gulf moisture and downstream blocking could help this thing slow up. At the rate this season has gone, we pretty gun shy--it certainly bears watching! I'll keep you posted!

I will continue to hope (as I have all season) that NNE gets socked by a two foot (+) storm anytime now...

Asking a lot, I know... but we've gotta get at least one, right?

-w

 

[drjeff]

Definately early, but long range models are suggesting a deep trough to move in from the west then. It could certainly tap into some good Gulf moisture and downstream blocking could help this thing slow up. At the rate this season has gone, we pretty gun shy--it certainly bears watching! I'll keep you posted!

It seems that this year, more than most years, the only certainty about winter storms in the Northeast has been their unpredictability! We just really haven't that classic winter storm that has a LARGE reaching area over the Northeast. It seems like this year that 50 miles is the difference between 0-2" and 8 to 10" whereas in a typical New England Winter Storm, 50 miles is more like the difference between 4-8" and 8-10" of snow.

 

[KingM]

I hope you're not lumping us in with that. Granted, we busted too but not as bad....if there are degrees of bust-age. ;-)

Are you still sticking to this, which is currently up on the web site:

Still cloudy and windy (strongest early) with continued light to moderate snow/showers through the day--colder too with summit blowing snow and windchills

Precipitation:
60-70% chance of continued light to moderate snow showers through the day

Snow Potential
An additional 3-6" of snowfall through the day and overnight

I hope so, but I have to point out that they can't be "continued" snow showers if they haven't started yet.

 

[WinnChill]

Are you still sticking to this, which is currently up on the web site:



I hope so, but I have to point out that they can't be "continued" snow showers if they haven't started yet.

Nope. Crap. Haven't got around to changing it. There's a bunch just west that just haven't crept in. Have to regroup and retool.

 

[WinnChill]

Winds crapped out today...but will pick up tomorrow and Friday to spark those showers again.