Mediocre snow season is on the way?

[Vano]

I am very concerned that this year is going to be yet another underwhelming winter season. First, I admit and realize that I know very little about weather, snow and weather patterns, but having read a few long term forecasts on the net, I am starting to get concerned that yet another mediocre or worse winter season is upon us.

Looks like the NOAA is predicting a Neutral 3 to 6 months as far as El Nino / La Nina weather systems go.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.html

And that usually means slightly below normal temperatures and slightly lower than average snow fall in the Northeast:
http://www.northcountryweather.com/neen_4.html

I hope I am wrong because after a few consecutive years of decent winter seasons I am itching for a heavy winter with lots of snow to play in. Does that mean I should be praying for a strong El Nino system to move in?

 

[ctenidae]

I looked at NOAA's long-range climate forecast a week or so ago, the NE is tagged as "Average" for temps and precip. By definition, I guess that's mediocre.
But, I didn't like what it said, so I stuck my fingers in my ears and said "Neenerneenerneenerneener" until a coworker kicked me.

 

[riverc0il]

man, i'll take average over abnormal. the last two winters definitely left something to be desired except at a few specific times during the season when it just dumped, sometimes in the most random places. don't get me wrong, we had decent averages, but i'll take slow and steady without NCP over a few sudden big dumps late in the season any winter.

that said, as long as it's not a prediction for a horrible winter, i am good to go.

 

[Vano]

Definitely shouldn't be a horrible winter. Should really fall under Northeast "Average" I guess. But Northeast average usually sucks.

For example, 3 inches of rain fell in Jay Peak around December 20th encapsulating every single gladed run in a sheet of ice. I had to ski icy groomed, over-used runs for 3 days straight thanks to that wonderful turn of events. Things like that make "average" seasons in the NE area into crap.

I will keep my fingers crossed!

 

[awf170]

don't get me wrong, we had decent averages, but i'll take slow and steady without NCP over a few sudden big dumps late in the season any winter.

last winter we defiantly didnt have have average snow, the only ski area in northern NE to get above average snowfall was cannon. And the year before was just horrible

 

[Zand]

Dobn't know that you're looking at Austin, but nearly EVERY ski area in southern NE got above average snowfall. Everyone from Jiminy to Wachusett to CT. In fact, most in the area ran nearly 5-6 feet above average. Even up north, most were above average.

From what I've read, all signs are pointing to this winter being a whopper. Everything from roadkill to hurricanes to current weather patterns.

 

[awf170]

Dobn't know that you're looking at Austin, but nearly EVERY ski area in southern NE got above average snowfall. Everyone from Jiminy to Wachusett to CT. In fact, most in the area ran nearly 5-6 feet above average. Even up north, most were above average.

Yeah but i said northern, i really couldnt care less about how southern NE does. Pretty much all of northern VT and NH did really bad

 

[ski_resort_observer]

Maybe this will make you feel better

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/forthepress/weathermaps.html

 

[riverc0il]

based on bestsnow.net (http://members.aol.com/crockeraf/seas05.htm), northern VT got ~80% of normal last season. with exception of northern VT, most areas were average and southern areas were above average. overall, last year i would still say was about average snow fall with pockets leaning in either direction. what made last year weird was the terrible early part of the season (we didn't have a decent base on natural snow trails until friggin february!). so it is important to note that total snow fall isn't the most important factor in a good winter (though it is usually a VERY important factor in a great winter), but rather consistancy, good early season base, and a lack of NCP and mid-winter thaw are key elements to a healthy season.

 

[dmc]

I guess we'll find out on a couple months...

It's going to freeze tonight in the Catskills..

 

[highpeaksdrifter]

I guess we'll find out on a couple months..

That's the ticket, cause who the freak knows. We'll hope for the best, but take what we get.

Low of 27 tonight at Whiteface. I think 27 is my favorite degree.

 

[deadheadskier]

Doesn't matter for skiing (outside of the Blue Hills and Nashoba), but didn't Boston have a record winter in terms of snowfall?

While last winter wasn't a banner year in terms of powder days, in my opinion it did offer the best spring skiing I can remember. Mid-March through Mid-April was fantastic - Good Base depth and it seemed like everyday was 40 to 50 degrees and SUNNY. At least in Northern Vermont anyhow.

 

[Joshua]

a few things to consider:

1) no one really knows

2) lots of hurricanes, most since 95 (95-96 one of the best skiing winters ever)

3) no matter what, every winter has good and bad days

4) it will snow, at some point

5) no one really knows

 

[Powderhound21]

a few things to consider:

1) no one really knows

2) lots of hurricanes, most since 95 (95-96 one of the best skiing winters ever)

3) no matter what, every winter has good and bad days

4) it will snow, at some point

5) no one really knows

Excellent post. I 100% agree with you. :beer:

 

[Joshua]

thanks.....

i think the one thing about the east is that things change fast out here, no matter what, we will never have pow every day all day...its just not possible.....

 

[skidbump]

ok i got the definitive answer to this winters weather..how? i stuck my finger in the dogs butt and swung a fresh killed headless chicken with my other free hand and the blood spelled tola a wons.Then i got the mirror out and it said ALOT A SNOW


yes bored...very bored

 

[Vortex]

Well thats the 1st time I have see that method. Keep us posted.

 

[Vano]

a few things to consider:

1) no one really knows

2) lots of hurricanes, most since 95 (95-96 one of the best skiing winters ever)

3) no matter what, every winter has good and bad days

4) it will snow, at some point

5) no one really knows

You are right Josh, no one really knows for sure what the winter will be like. I think it will be impossible to predict with any accuracy how each month will develop in different areas of the north east. It is hard to tell if a noreaster will turn into rain because the high pressure moves in from the south in the last second and so on. But given that we have nothing, looking at El Nino and La Nina effects is the best we can do now. And a Neutral year points to a very Neutral, mediocre season.

I think being from new jersey, I am more sensitive to stuff like this - I need to look at the ski season as a whole. I plan ski trips weeks and months ahead of time, so looking at long term forecasts about weather and snow is more important to me than to someone who lives in Burlington, VT and has Jay, Stowe, Smuggs, and MGR to pick from as a day trip. Once I book my Vermont trip, its booked and im going, no matter what the conditions - thats why i am praying for an overall good season.

 

[loafer89]

One thing that is for certain is that the Artic had an extremely warm summer and the multi-year ice pack (ice that survives more than one summer season) is at it's lowest extent since record keeping started in 1900.

The sea ice has been in decline for 4 continuous years, something NEVER seen before. Right now there is alot of open water in the Arctic, and that water is growing warmer every year.

It's sad to see the Arctic thawing out, but it is probably just the natural cycle of things.

My thinking for this winter is for wide temperature swings, with large amounts of precipitation along the coast like last year, and an early spring.

Believe me, I hate to think that will happen, hopefully it will be cold and snowy all winter
And I hope to see frost on my lawn by Columbus Day as it has been for the last 5 years.

 

[ctenidae]

the blood spelled tola a wons.Then i got the mirror out and it said ALOT A SNOW

That would actually be "Snow a alot", which, aside from the grammatical issues, is still a good sign.