Not to be a downer, but we are due for a bad snow year...

[ski_resort_observer]

That's why resorts have invested millions in snowmaking, as long as it's cold there is skiing.

 

[Highway Star]

And you call yourself an engineer.

Each event is independent. Unless you have access to the next generation Cray supercomputer, and have developed a closed model for the entire world, there is no predicting the next season.

The odds for an above average snowfall this year are the same as always.

The 16 to one odds you speak of is for 4 independent events each with 2 possible outcomes that are yet to occur, not for or including events that have occured in the past.

You = Fail.

Each season may be statistically independant, in having a 50% chance of greater than median 240" snowfall (average is 249", btw). However, to have 4 years where you exceed the median is still 1/16. To have 4 seasons where you exceed 280" is even rarer still.....somewhere around a 1 in 75 chance (roughly).

Obviously, there are other factors at work here - how Killington measures snowfall, long term weather trends, etc. If we do get another good year, it will be a not so subtle hint that there are factors helping them beat the odds.

 

[mondeo]

The interesting thing about those numbers is how bimodal the distribution is. 250" may be the mean, but there's only two instances in the last 20 years where the snowfall fell between 225" and 275". That's not natural.

 

[bigbog]

Not to be a downer......but I was looking at the Killington historic snowfall totals. We've had 280"+ for the last 3 years in a row, which is fairly rare to have 3 good years in a row. We've NEVER had 4 good years in a row....

Here we go...gloom & doom Highway Star..LOL
Aren't they feeding you at the compound up there in the Green Mtns...?

 

[St. Bear]

You know, HS could be correct about Killington having a "bad" snow year, and it can still be epic in other places.

/Always Look On the Bright Side of Life

 

[4aprice]

You know, HS could be correct about Killington having a "bad" snow year, and it can still be epic in other places.

/Always Look On the Bright Side of Life

Its happened before and could happen again. The Poconos, Catskills and Berkshires have good winters every once in a while. I don't want to see anyone lacking snow but that map would be a good one for me.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[billski]

How can you start that with "Not to be a downer...."?? That's pretty much the definition of a downer...

:flame:Talk about a thread that needs to be locked!

 

[billski]

That's why resorts have invested millions in snowmaking, as long as it's cold there is skiing.

Which is why I always enjoy seeing the snowmaking snow blow into the woods when the wind shifts

Windy days are my friend.......

 

[amf]

I like skiing in West Virginia... looks good to me!

 

[KingM]

You = Fail.

Each season may be statistically independant, in having a 50% chance of greater than median 240" snowfall (average is 249", btw). However, to have 4 years where you exceed the median is still 1/16.

Great, we can now say that we have a 6.25% chance that all of the next four winters will be above the median snowfall.

But the last three winters are already in the books, so we've got 100% chance of having three in a row (assuming you trust the numbers). What are the odds that we'll get 4 in a row since we already know the results of the first three? 50%.

If you don't believe me, will you give me 16-1 odds that this year will be above the median? Cause I'll sure as hell take those odds.

 

[ctenidae]

I predict that tomorrow will be light starting around daybreak, with continuing light through until nightfall. It will be dark during the overnight period, with light returning around sunrise on Thursday morning.

Rinse, repeat.

 

[bvibert]

I predict that tomorrow will be light starting around daybreak, with continuing light through until nightfall. It will be dark during the overnight period, with light returning around sunrise on Thursday morning.

Rinse, repeat.

You are wrong.

 

[billski]

I predict that tomorrow will be light starting around daybreak, with continuing light through until nightfall. It will be dark during the overnight period, with light returning around sunrise on Thursday morning.

Rinse, repeat.

Hello. This is the employment office of CrapUWeather. If your average forecasting success rate is less than the batting average any of the top 10 MLB hitters, you are qualified as a weather forecaster. If you average is greater than 50%, we are not interested. If you dress well, are a clothes horse and can talk about mindless blather for hours, we have just the job for you. No experience necessary. In fact, experience is a detriment to the success of most of our candidates. You must have great legs. A general distaste for winter weather is a must. Are you fit for a job with CrapU?

 

[jaywbigred]

And you call yourself an engineer.

Each event is independent. Unless you have access to the next generation Cray supercomputer, and have developed a closed model for the entire world, there is no predicting the next season.

The odds for an above average snowfall this year are the same as always.

The 16 to one odds you speak of is for 4 independent events each with 2 possible outcomes that are yet to occur, not for or including events that have occured in the past.

:razz:

Great, we can now say that we have a 6.25% chance that all of the next four winters will be above the median snowfall.

But the last three winters are already in the books, so we've got 100% chance of having three in a row (assuming you trust the numbers). What are the odds that we'll get 4 in a row since we already know the results of the first three? 50%.

If you don't believe me, will you give me 16-1 odds that this year will be above the median? Cause I'll sure as hell take those odds.

:razz:

As long as its cold, I don't care how much it snows. Fan guns at Mt. Snow = love. I'd rather have 2 whole mos. of cold with little natural than 5 big dumps followed by 5 days of warm-up each.

 

[tcharron]

Not weather. It is ALL related. That is why forecasting is so difficult to get right. But you can have an intelligent discussion.

Well, while everything can be related, it'd be pretty easy to say that weather events a year apart from each other don't impact each other. A whole lot of butterflies can, or can't, flutter their wings in a year. :-D

 

[tcharron]

True, but there's only a 1 in 16 chance of it happening 4 times in a row.

All unique combination's have the same likelihood. 1=head, 0=tail

1111
1110
1101
1111
1011
1010
1001
1000
0111
0110
0101
0111
0011
0010
0001
0000

So basically, 1110 has the same chances as 1111, which 1 being, 'Snow 4tw!'

 

[deadheadskier]

we clearly need a statistics / engineering forum :lol:

 

[faceplant]

- how Killington measures snowfall,

is that the same way they measure there vertical drop? :dunce:






.

 

[UVSHTSTRM]

is that the same way they measure there vertical drop? :dunce:


Hahaha, it's funny I give K-mart a lot of crap, but in reality I like it, it's a short drive away from where I live. However there "bigger" "more" mantra makes it easy to pick on them. Especially when their vertical is laughable, there snow tally's are pretty amusing from time to time, they are not the largest mountain in the east, etc, etc!

The one thing they do seemingly get crap for that they don't deserve is crowds........i rarely wait in line and most waits are under 5 minutes.

 

[UVSHTSTRM]

is that the same way they measure there vertical drop? :dunce:


Hahaha, it's funny I give K-mart a lot of crap, but in reality I like it, it's a short drive away from where I live. However there "bigger" "more" mantra makes it easy to pick on them. Especially when their vertical is laughable, there snow tally's are pretty amusing from time to time, they are not the largest mountain in the east, etc, etc!

The one thing they do seemingly get crap for that they don't deserve is crowds........i rarely wait in line and most waits are under 5 minutes.

Oh and there terrain is nothing special and for the most part short runs.