Snowmaking Wx and Snow(?) Next week...

[powderfreak]

Bottom Line...
After front on Monday Night, summit temps will stay below freezing for several days at least and daytime highs might not get above freezing as low as 2,000ft come Wed/Thurs. Snowmaking could start up 'round the clock at many resorts later next week, especially along the northern tier from Whiteface to Sugarloaf. Snow showers will effect upslope prone areas in NNY, NVT, and to a lesser degree NNH off and on during Tues, Wed, and Thurs. A light snow accumulation is likely in those favored locations, especially the northern Green Mtn spine.

Walking through the next week...
Tropical Storm remnants will batter the New England coast on Friday Night and Saturday with sustained 40-50mph winds possible on the Cape and far eastern ME. This storm has been trending westward on the model guidance but it looks as if the cold front has pretty much reached the coast per the water vapor loop...therefor I cannot imagine this will track any further west so it will have little impact on sensible wx across the North Country.

As this system pulls NNE on Saturday night and Sunday, it will drag H85 temps back below 0C but this air will only be seasonably cold...with valley highs in the upper 40's and mid to upper 30's in the high elevations on Sunday. Then, a strong shortwave will move from just north of the Great Lakes to quite a ways NW of BTV from Monday into Tuesday. After the cold front associated with this low moves through, we will see the coldest air of the season. All precipitation through 12am Tuesday will be in the form of rain.

I like what I see from say Tuesday afternoon through Thursday as the low slowly lifts NNE...a light but steady NNW flow sets up along with cold air advection (CAA) dropping our H85 temps to below -10C by Thursday. While the upslope parameters are not all there (pressure gradient too weak for strong low level winds), it looks like there will be occasional snow showers across the northern Adirondacks and northern Green Mtn spine during this period. At least a light accumulation looks like a good bet in the favored spots from Jay Peak south to Bolton (though this might be mostly a Jay Peak thing being located furthest north and closer to the low). I'll have more on the snowfall potential as we move through the weekend.

As an example of the temps we should be seeing next week, here's the NWS co-operative MOS temp forecast for some North Country locations. The Mansfield co-op is located at 3,900ft, while the Jay Peak one is at something like 1,800 or 2,000ft.
http://tinyurl.com/2h9lg8

Lastly, we'll stay cool to cold through day 10 as a trough persists across the eastern U.S.
6-10 Day EURO 500mb height anomalies:
http://tinyurl.com/2489xz

A large majority of the ski areas in the northeast will be seeing their first flakes in the next 7-14 days as we head into what looks to be a more normal step-down into winter (as opposed to the last two years when we've seen major October snowstorms followed by 70F November wx).

-Scott

 

[ALLSKIING]

Thanks Scott!!

 

[powderfreak]

I wrote this in response to someone wondering about skiing options early this week...we'll see some snow in the highest elevations but nothing much down low; though some low elevation areas that do see precipitation on Tuesday night could see their first snowflakes of the season.

Skiing options will be minimal unless you hike to find some piles of man-made or want to session natural snow above 3,500ft. Now, the high summits may offer some turns in the 4-6" of snow I'm expecting above 3,000ft in northern VT (I-89 north) and northern NY by Wed afternoon. There is the chance of an isolated 7" amount in the highest spots...such as the Mansfield stake...as H85 temps are going to be incredibly close to 0C tomorrow/Monday night throughout the bulk of the synoptic precipitation. The freezing level on the NAM is right at that 3,900ft level and with around a half inch of QPF forecasted along the spine, the upper-upper Toll Road may have several inches of fresh snow by Tuesday morning. Given that I like to forecast the snow level around 500ft below the freezing level, I could see this system staying all wet snow above 3,500ft. I've been watching the trend of model guidance over the past 2 days to keep the strong WAA out of northern NY and VT...with the highest elevations of northern VT (I-89 northward) and northern NY under the sub 0C 850mb conditions staying all snow.

Following the synoptic precipitation, weak upslope parameters will be in place. However, the low pressure system off to the north will be weak and displaced a little too far north. Thus, I am not expecting more than 1-2" along the northern spine above 1,500ft...with the outside chance of 3" up at Jay Peak. This will be a much lighter density snow than what could fall tomorrow night. 1-2" should be the rule in the northern Adirondacks, as well, from a combo of upslope and lake effect snow showers. Nothing more than a coating is possible at night below 1,500ft on Tuesday night in northern VT/NY.

In total, by Wednesday afternoon I'm going with 1-3" up to 3,000ft with 3-7" above 3,000ft between the synoptic and mesoscale precipitation and this applies mainly to areas from Bolton to Jay Peak in VT, and Whiteface in NY. I could see an inch or two further south at SB and MRG but the region looks just a little too far south for enough wind to produce meaningful upslope precipitation...and the air is forecasted to be a degree warmer which might push the snow level too high tomorrow night.

-Scott